NFL Passing Yards Props
Every quarterback ranked by passing yards per game, with hit rate against the line and the upcoming matchup alongside. Set your own line to see who clears it most often.
| Player | Matchup | Avg | 225+ |
|---|---|---|---|
 Bryce YoungQB · CAR | vs DET1st | 313 | 3/3 |
 Tyler ShoughQB · NO | vs ATL4th | 305.7 | 3/3 |
 Matthew StaffordQB · LAR | @ PHI25th | 290.7 | 2/3 |
 Jordan LoveQB · GB | @ TB22nd | 281.3 | 2/3 |
 Patrick MahomesQB · KC | @ LV24th | 270.7 | 2/3 |
 Jared GoffQB · DET | @ CAR28th | 267.3 | 2/3 |
 C.J. StroudQB · HOU | vs DAL19th | 264.7 | 2/3 |
 Brock PurdyQB · SF | vs DEN8th | 263 | 2/3 |
18 more quarterbacks behind Pro
You're seeing the top 8 of 26. Pro unlocks every quarterback, hit rates against any custom yardage line, and full game logs.
How to read this board
- What is a passing yards hit rate?
- A hit rate is the share of games a quarterback finished at or above a given passing yards number. A 76% hit rate at 225 yards means the QB threw for 225 or more yards in 76% of his games that season.
- What does EPA per play tell me about a QB prop?
- EPA per play is expected points added per dropback — a measure of how efficient the quarterback is, independent of volume. A high-EPA passer on a pass-heavy team is the strongest combination for a passing yards over; an efficient QB on a run-first team can still fall short of a high line.
- How does the opposing pass defense change a passing prop?
- The Def Rank column shows the opponent’s rank against quarterbacks, where 1st means it has allowed the most passing production. A QB facing a bottom-ranked pass defense is a better spot for an over than the same QB against a top-5 secondary, even at the same line.
- How many games are needed before a hit rate is meaningful?
- Players with fewer than 4 games are excluded. Even so, a 100% hit rate over 4 games is far weaker evidence than 75% over 17 games — weigh the sample, not just the percentage.