Question 1

What are MLB regression candidates?

Accepted Answer

Regression candidates are hitters whose actual stats (batting average, slugging) differ significantly from their expected stats (xBA, xSLG) based on quality of contact. A hitter with a .250 AVG but .310 xBA is underperforming and likely due for a hits surge — making their OVER props valuable.

Question 2

What is barrel rate and why does it matter for betting?

Accepted Answer

Barrel rate measures the percentage of batted balls with optimal exit velocity (98+ mph) and launch angle (26-30 degrees). It's the #1 predictor of home runs. Hitters with 12%+ barrel rates are elite power threats, making their HR props and total bases props more likely to hit.

Question 3

What is Stuff+ and how does it predict strikeout props?

Accepted Answer

Stuff+ grades each pitch's raw quality (movement, velocity, spin) on a scale where 100 is average. A pitcher with 130 Stuff+ on their slider has elite swing-and-miss stuff. High Stuff+ predicts future strikeout rate better than past K% because it captures true pitch quality independent of luck.

Question 4

How does sprint speed affect stolen base props?

Accepted Answer

Sprint speed measures a player's top running speed in feet per second. Players with 29+ ft/s sprint speed have significantly higher stolen base success rates. Combined with the opposing catcher's pop time, sprint speed is the key input for stolen base prop projections.

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