No Run First Inning
Matchup pairs with pitcher NRFI records and streaks.
MLB NRFI picks, explained
No Run First Inning (NRFI) is a bet that neither team scores in the first inning of an MLB game. Historically, roughly 55–60% of games finish with a scoreless first inning, which makes NRFI a slight favorite on average based on first-inning scoring splits from the MLB Stats API.
This dashboard ranks every game on today's slate by each probable starter's first-inning ERA and WHIP, the opposing lineup's first-inning scoring rate, active NRFI and YRFI streaks, ballpark run factors, weather, and umpire tendencies. Probable starters and matchups refresh daily before first pitch.
What does NRFI mean in baseball betting?
NRFI stands for No Run First Inning. It is a popular baseball prop bet where you wager that neither team will score a run in the first inning of a game. The opposite bet, YRFI (Yes Run First Inning), means you predict at least one run will be scored in the first inning.
What makes a good NRFI bet?
A good NRFI bet typically involves starting pitchers with low first-inning ERAs, teams with low first-inning scoring rates, long active NRFI streaks, and pitcher-friendly ballparks. The best NRFI matchups feature two dominant starters facing lineups that struggle to score early.
How are NRFI probabilities calculated?
NRFI probabilities are calculated by combining multiple factors: each starting pitcher's first-inning ERA and WHIP, the opposing lineup's first-inning scoring rate, active NRFI/YRFI streaks for each team, and ballpark factors that affect run scoring.
How often do NRFI bets win?
Approximately 55-60% of MLB games result in no runs scored in the first inning, making NRFI a slightly favorable outcome on average. However, the actual win rate varies significantly based on the specific pitcher matchup, teams involved, and ballpark.
What are the best NRFI bets today?
The best NRFI bets today are the games at the top of this dashboard — it ranks every game on the slate by combined first-inning strength, pairing both probable starters' first-inning ERA, WHIP, and NRFI streaks with each lineup's first-inning scoring rate, ballpark run factors, weather, and home-plate umpire tendencies. The highest-scored matchups (two strong starters vs. weak early-scoring lineups) are the top NRFI picks, and the list refreshes daily before first pitch.
Is NRFI a good bet, and is it profitable?
NRFI can be profitable when you're selective. Because ~55-60% of first innings are scoreless, sportsbooks price NRFI close to that, so blindly betting every game breaks even at best. The edge comes from targeting only the strongest matchups — elite first-inning starters facing lineups that struggle early, in pitcher-friendly parks — rather than betting the whole slate.
How do you find good NRFI picks and predictions?
Start with each probable starter's first-inning ERA and NRFI win rate, then check the opposing lineup's first-inning scoring rate, active NRFI/YRFI streaks, the ballpark's run environment, weather (wind and temperature), and the home-plate umpire's strike-zone tendencies. This dashboard combines all of those into a single daily NRFI score and prediction for every game so you don't have to assemble them by hand.
Does the pitcher's NRFI % measure his own first inning or the whole game?
His own. Each pitcher's NRFI % is the share of his starts where HE kept his half of the first inning scoreless — the away starter is measured on the bottom of the 1st (the home lineup he faces), the home starter on the top of the 1st. It is not the game-level result, so it lines up with his first-inning ERA. The opponent's '1st run %' next to it shows how often the lineup he faces scores early, and the two combine into the game's overall NRFI odds.
What does the home-plate umpire percentage (e.g. "HP Clemons 44% zone") mean?
That number is the home-plate umpire's called strike-zone rate — the share of borderline pitches he calls strikes. The league average is around 44%. A higher zone rate means more strikes, which favors pitchers and slightly increases the chance of a scoreless first inning (NRFI); a lower rate favors hitters. It's one of the smaller factors in the overall NRFI score.
Related: Pitching Stats dashboard, ballpark weather impacts, today's best Top Plays across all sports.