# MLB NRFI Picks Today — Sunday, October 4, 2026

> **NRFI (No Run First Inning)** is a bet that neither team scores in the first inning of an MLB game. Historically ~55–60% of games are scoreless through the first, so NRFI is a slight favorite on average — but the edge lives in the specific pitcher matchup.

**Live tool (updated daily):** https://heatcheckhq.io/mlb/nrfi
**Games ranked today:** 2

## Today's top NRFI pick

**SD @ MIL** — 74% combined NRFI · American Family Field · 4:00 PM
  - **Michael King** (RHP): 85% NRFI, 3.21 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 2-game NRFI streak
  - **Logan Henderson** (RHP): 89% NRFI, 2.47 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 5-game NRFI streak
  - Michael King vs. Logan Henderson models to a 74% chance of a scoreless first inning — the joint probability that neither SD nor MIL plates a run in the opening frame. Michael King has been sharp out of the gate (28/33 scoreless 1st). Logan Henderson matches it in his own half (16/18 scoreless 1st). SD rarely dents the scoreboard in the 1st. American Family Field is a dome — controlled conditions, no weather variance.

HeatCheck HQ ranks all 2 games on today's slate by combined first-inning strength — both starters' own scoreless-first rates, the lineups they face, ballpark, weather, and umpire. See the full ranked board, the rest of today's best NRFI bets, and the games to avoid:

**→ https://heatcheckhq.io/mlb/nrfi**