What is the Hitter vs Pitcher Arsenal tool?

The Hitter vs Pitcher Arsenal tool shows how each batter in a lineup performs against the specific pitches a pitcher throws. Select a game, a pitcher, and then click through each batter to see their barrel rate, exit velocity, ISO, and OPS broken down by pitch type — weighted by how often the pitcher throws each pitch.

How is the 'vs arsenal' stat calculated?

The 'vs arsenal' value for each stat is a usage-weighted average. For each pitch the pitcher throws, we take the batter's stat against that pitch type and weight it by how often the pitcher uses it. This gives a single number showing how the batter's performance skews against this specific pitcher's pitch mix.

What is the HR Score and how is it computed?

The HR Score is a 7-factor composite (0-100) that estimates a batter's home run likelihood in this specific matchup. It combines platoon advantage, ISO, barrel rate, arsenal fit (what % of the pitcher's pitches the batter slugs well against), exit velocity, pitcher HR vulnerability (HR/9), and fly ball tendency.

What does Arsenal Fit mean in the pitch split table?

Arsenal fit measures what percentage of the pitcher's total pitch usage comes from pitches where the batter slugs .400 or higher with at least 3 plate appearances. A high arsenal fit means the batter historically crushes the pitches this pitcher relies on most.

Hitter vs Pitch Mix — MLB Pitch-Type Matchup Analysis

Sat, Apr 4

Hitter vs Pitch Mix

Select a game and pitcher to see how each batter performs against their pitch mix.

Batter

Time Frame

Prop

MLB Hitting Stats Glossary

Quick reference for every stat column. Green = good for the batter, red = poor.

PA (Plate Appearances)

50+20–49< 10

Sample size. More PA = more reliable data. Below 10, treat numbers as directional, not definitive.

AVG (Batting Average)

.280+.240–.279< .220

Hits per at-bat. A .300 hitter gets a hit 30% of the time. The most recognizable hitting stat.

SLG (Slugging)

.450+.350–.449< .320

Total bases per at-bat. Measures raw power. A .500 SLG means half a base per AB on average.

ISO (Isolated Power)

.180+.100–.179< .080

SLG minus AVG. Strips out singles to isolate extra-base hit ability. Higher = more doubles, triples, HRs.

wOBA (Weighted On-Base Average)

.350+.310–.349< .280

Best single stat for overall offensive quality. Weights each outcome (walk, single, HR) by its actual run value.

HR (Home Runs)

Context

Total home runs hit. Compare to pitcher usage to see which pitches are getting taken deep.

XBH (Extra-Base Hits)

Context

Doubles + triples + home runs combined. Shows total extra-base damage.

Whiff% (Swing & Miss Rate)

< 20%20–28%> 30%

Percentage of swings that miss entirely. Lower is better for the batter. High whiff% means struggles making contact.

BRL% (Barrel Rate)

10%+6–9%< 5%

Percentage of batted balls with optimal exit velo + launch angle. Barrels produce .500+ AVG and 1.500+ SLG. Best HR predictor.

EV (Exit Velocity)

92+ mph88–91 mph< 86 mph

Average speed off the bat in mph. Higher = harder contact = more damage. 95+ mph is elite.

xBA (Expected Batting Average)

.270+.230–.269< .220

Statcast expected AVG based on exit velocity and launch angle. Removes luck from the equation.

HH% (Hard Hit Rate)

42%+35–41%< 30%

Percentage of batted balls at 95+ mph exit velocity. Higher = more consistently hard contact.

Launch Angle

12–25°8–11° or 26–30°< 5° or > 35°

Average angle off the bat in degrees. 10–25° = line drives, 25–35° = fly ball / HR zone. Too low = grounders, too high = popups.

FB% (Fly Ball Rate)

40%+30–39%< 25%

Percentage of batted balls hit into the air. More fly balls = more HR opportunities.

GB% (Ground Ball Rate)

< 40%40–48%> 50%

Percentage of batted balls on the ground. Lower is better for power. Ground balls can never be home runs.

Pull% (Pull Rate)

45%+35–44%< 30%

How often the batter hits to their pull side. Power hitters who pull the ball hit more home runs.

MLB Hitting Stats Glossary

Quick reference for every stat column. Green = good for the batter, red = poor.

PA (Plate Appearances)

50+20–49< 10

Sample size. More PA = more reliable data. Below 10, treat numbers as directional, not definitive.

AVG (Batting Average)

.280+.240–.279< .220

Hits per at-bat. A .300 hitter gets a hit 30% of the time. The most recognizable hitting stat.

SLG (Slugging)

.450+.350–.449< .320

Total bases per at-bat. Measures raw power. A .500 SLG means half a base per AB on average.

ISO (Isolated Power)

.180+.100–.179< .080

SLG minus AVG. Strips out singles to isolate extra-base hit ability. Higher = more doubles, triples, HRs.

wOBA (Weighted On-Base Average)

.350+.310–.349< .280

Best single stat for overall offensive quality. Weights each outcome (walk, single, HR) by its actual run value.

HR (Home Runs)

Context

Total home runs hit. Compare to pitcher usage to see which pitches are getting taken deep.

XBH (Extra-Base Hits)

Context

Doubles + triples + home runs combined. Shows total extra-base damage.

Whiff% (Swing & Miss Rate)

< 20%20–28%> 30%

Percentage of swings that miss entirely. Lower is better for the batter. High whiff% means struggles making contact.

BRL% (Barrel Rate)

10%+6–9%< 5%

Percentage of batted balls with optimal exit velo + launch angle. Barrels produce .500+ AVG and 1.500+ SLG. Best HR predictor.

EV (Exit Velocity)

92+ mph88–91 mph< 86 mph

Average speed off the bat in mph. Higher = harder contact = more damage. 95+ mph is elite.

xBA (Expected Batting Average)

.270+.230–.269< .220

Statcast expected AVG based on exit velocity and launch angle. Removes luck from the equation.

HH% (Hard Hit Rate)

42%+35–41%< 30%

Percentage of batted balls at 95+ mph exit velocity. Higher = more consistently hard contact.

Launch Angle

12–25°8–11° or 26–30°< 5° or > 35°

Average angle off the bat in degrees. 10–25° = line drives, 25–35° = fly ball / HR zone. Too low = grounders, too high = popups.

FB% (Fly Ball Rate)

40%+30–39%< 25%

Percentage of batted balls hit into the air. More fly balls = more HR opportunities.

GB% (Ground Ball Rate)

< 40%40–48%> 50%

Percentage of batted balls on the ground. Lower is better for power. Ground balls can never be home runs.

Pull% (Pull Rate)

45%+35–44%< 30%

How often the batter hits to their pull side. Power hitters who pull the ball hit more home runs.