MLB Pitch Mix Matchups
Per-pitch Statcast splits for every batter vs today's starting pitchers — barrel rate, exit velocity, ISO, and OPS by pitch type, usage-weighted to the pitcher's actual arsenal.
Hitter vs Pitch Mix
Select a game and pitcher to see how each batter performs against their pitch mix.
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Quick reference for every stat column. Green = good for the batter, red = poor.
PA (Plate Appearances)
Sample size. More PA = more reliable data. Below 10, treat numbers as directional, not definitive.
AVG (Batting Average)
Hits per at-bat. A .300 hitter gets a hit 30% of the time. The most recognizable hitting stat.
SLG (Slugging)
Total bases per at-bat. Measures raw power. A .500 SLG means half a base per AB on average.
ISO (Isolated Power)
SLG minus AVG. Strips out singles to isolate extra-base hit ability. Higher = more doubles, triples, HRs.
wOBA (Weighted On-Base Average)
Best single stat for overall offensive quality. Weights each outcome (walk, single, HR) by its actual run value.
HR (Home Runs)
Total home runs hit. Compare to pitcher usage to see which pitches are getting taken deep.
XBH (Extra-Base Hits)
Doubles + triples + home runs combined. Shows total extra-base damage.
Whiff% (Swing & Miss Rate)
Percentage of swings that miss entirely. Lower is better for the batter. High whiff% means struggles making contact.
BRL% (Barrel Rate)
Percentage of batted balls with optimal exit velo + launch angle. Barrels produce .500+ AVG and 1.500+ SLG. Best HR predictor.
EV (Exit Velocity)
Average speed off the bat in mph. Higher = harder contact = more damage. 95+ mph is elite.
xBA (Expected Batting Average)
Statcast expected AVG based on exit velocity and launch angle. Removes luck from the equation.
HH% (Hard Hit Rate)
Percentage of batted balls at 95+ mph exit velocity. Higher = more consistently hard contact.
Launch Angle
Average angle off the bat in degrees. 10–25° = line drives, 25–35° = fly ball / HR zone. Too low = grounders, too high = popups.
FB% (Fly Ball Rate)
Percentage of batted balls hit into the air. More fly balls = more HR opportunities.
GB% (Ground Ball Rate)
Percentage of batted balls on the ground. Lower is better for power. Ground balls can never be home runs.
Pull% (Pull Rate)
How often the batter hits to their pull side. Power hitters who pull the ball hit more home runs.
Hitter vs pitch mix, explained
Pitch-mix (arsenal-fit) analysis shows how a batter performs against the specific pitch types the opposing starter throws — barrel rate, exit velocity, ISO, and OPS broken out by fastball, slider, curveball, changeup, and more, then weighted by how often that pitcher actually throws each pitch. Barrel rate is the single most predictive Statcast metric for home runs.
This dashboard takes today's probable pitcher's real arsenal and overlays every batter's per-pitch Statcast splits to surface mismatches — hitters who crush the exact pitches a given pitcher relies on most.
What is hitter vs pitch-mix analysis?
It measures how a batter hits each pitch type (four-seam, sinker, slider, curve, changeup, etc.) and weights those results by the opposing pitcher's actual pitch usage. The output is a single 'vs arsenal' number showing how well the hitter matches up with that specific pitcher's repertoire.
Why does barrel rate matter for hitters?
A 'barrel' is a batted ball with the optimal combination of exit velocity and launch angle — the contact that produces at least a .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging on average. Barrel rate is the best single Statcast predictor of home run power.
How is the 'vs arsenal' stat calculated?
For each pitch the pitcher throws, the model takes the batter's stat against that pitch type and weights it by how often the pitcher uses that pitch. Summed together, it produces a usage-weighted view of how the batter should fare against this exact pitch mix.
How often does the pitch-mix data update?
Probable pitchers and lineups refresh daily before first pitch, and the underlying Statcast per-pitch metrics update nightly after games complete.
Related: career batter vs pitcher history, pitching stats & arsenals, MLB home run picks.