MLB Homerun Heatcheck

HR Score ranks every qualified batter by season power profile (six Statcast metrics). The Tonight column adds the full matchup overlay — opposing pitcher's HR/9 (season + last 21 days), GB% and fastball velocity, the batter's recent hot streak, platoon advantage, ballpark altitude, and weather — for batters in today's lineups. The Barrel Δ column shows how each hitter's barrel rate over the last 10 games compares to their season baseline (recomputes with the L5 / L10 / L15 window selector). Tap any icon for column details.

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MLB home run picks, explained

Home run props ask whether a specific batter will hit a home run in a given game. The most predictive signals are Statcast quality-of-contact metrics — barrel rate, best exit velocity, expected slugging (xSLG), fly-ball rate, hard-hit rate, and pull rate — combined with the opposing pitcher and ballpark.

Homerun Heatcheck ranks every batter on a 0-100 scale built from those Statcast power metrics, then layers in the day's pitcher matchup, weather, and ballpark home run factors. Rankings refresh daily as lineups and probable starters are confirmed.

What stats best predict home runs?

Statcast quality-of-contact metrics are the strongest predictors: barrel rate, best exit velocity, expected slugging (xSLG), fly-ball rate, hard-hit rate, and pull rate. A batter who barrels the ball, elevates, and pulls in the air against a home-run-prone pitcher in a hitter-friendly park is the ideal profile.

How does the Homerun Heatcheck score work?

Each batter is ranked 0-100 on home run likelihood using a composite of Barrel%, Best Exit Velocity, xSLG, Fly-Ball%, Hard-Hit% and Pull%, then adjusted for the opposing pitcher, ballpark home run factor, and weather conditions for that day's game.

Do ballpark and weather affect home run props?

Yes. Ballpark dimensions and altitude meaningfully change home run rates — Coors Field plays far friendlier than pitcher-friendly parks — and warm temperatures plus wind blowing out increase carry, while cold air and wind blowing in suppress it.

MLB home run picks, explained