Implied Probability
The probability of an outcome as implied by the betting odds, including the sportsbook's margin.
Full Definition
Implied Probability converts betting odds into a percentage that represents how likely the sportsbook believes the outcome is, including their built-in margin (vig). At -110 odds, the implied probability is 52.4%. At +150, it's 40%. To find value, compare the implied probability (from the odds) against your estimated true probability (from data analysis). When your analysis says a prop hits 65% of the time but the odds imply only 55%, that's a value bet.
What's a good Implied Probability?
If your estimated probability exceeds implied probability by 5%+, that's a significant edge worth betting.
Related terms
Expected Value (EV)
The average amount you expect to win or lose per bet over time, based on probability and odds.
Vig / Juice
The sportsbook's built-in commission on every bet, typically around 4.5-10%.
Closing Line Value (CLV)
Whether you got better odds than the final line at game time. The best predictor of long-term profit.
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