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MLBPitching

FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching)

ERA estimate based only on strikeouts, walks, HBP, and home runs — removes defense and luck.

Full Definition

Fielding Independent Pitching estimates what a pitcher's ERA should be based only on outcomes the pitcher directly controls: strikeouts, walks, hit-by-pitches, and home runs. FIP strips out the quality of defense behind the pitcher and luck on balls in play. When a pitcher's ERA is much higher than their FIP, they've been unlucky and are likely to improve. This FIP-ERA gap is valuable for betting because the market often prices pitchers on their ERA, creating value when FIP tells a different story.

What's a good FIP?

Below 3.00 is elite, 3.00-3.50 is excellent, 3.50-4.00 is average, above 4.50 is below average.

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