Expected Value (EV)
The average amount you expect to win or lose per bet over time, based on probability and odds.
Full Definition
Expected Value is the mathematical concept at the heart of profitable betting. EV = (Probability of Winning × Payout) - (Probability of Losing × Stake). A positive EV (+EV) bet means you expect to profit over time. For example, if you believe a prop hits 60% of the time at +100 odds, EV = (0.60 × $100) - (0.40 × $100) = +$20 per $100 wagered. Every prop analysis at HeatCheck HQ aims to identify +EV spots where the data-implied probability exceeds the market-implied probability.
What's a good Expected Value?
Any bet with positive expected value is theoretically profitable long-term. +5% EV or higher is a strong edge.
Related terms
Implied Probability
The probability of an outcome as implied by the betting odds, including the sportsbook's margin.
Vig / Juice
The sportsbook's built-in commission on every bet, typically around 4.5-10%.
Closing Line Value (CLV)
Whether you got better odds than the final line at game time. The best predictor of long-term profit.
Put this stat to work
HeatCheck HQ gives you Expected Value and dozens more stats across every All game — free to use, updated daily.
Sign Up Free