Expected Points Added (EPA)
How many points a play adds relative to what was expected given the down, distance, and field position.
Full Definition
Expected Points Added measures the value of each play by comparing the expected points before and after the play. A 5-yard gain on 3rd-and-4 (converts the first down) has much higher EPA than a 5-yard gain on 3rd-and-15 (still punting). EPA per play is the best single measure of player and team efficiency in the NFL. For props, QBs with high EPA/play are more likely to lead sustained drives that produce passing yards, TDs, and completions.
What's a good Expected Points Added?
EPA/play above 0.15 is elite QB, 0.05-0.15 is above average, 0 to 0.05 is average, below 0 is net negative.
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Related terms
Passer Rating (NFL)
A composite score (0-158.3) measuring QB passing efficiency based on completions, yards, TDs, and INTs.
Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
How often a QB completes passes compared to what's expected given throw difficulty.
Yards After Catch (YAC)
Yards gained by a receiver after catching the ball, before being tackled.
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