Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
How often a QB completes passes compared to what's expected given throw difficulty.
Full Definition
CPOE measures a quarterback's completion rate versus what an average QB would be expected to complete on the same throws, accounting for distance, defender proximity, and pass location. A positive CPOE means the QB completes more passes than expected — they're more accurate than average. For passing props, high-CPOE QBs are more likely to sustain drives and accumulate completions, attempts, and yards. CPOE is a better accuracy measure than raw completion percentage.
What's a good Completion Percentage Over Expected?
Above +4% is elite accuracy, +1% to +4% is above average, -1% to +1% is average, below -3% is inaccurate.
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Related terms
Passer Rating (NFL)
A composite score (0-158.3) measuring QB passing efficiency based on completions, yards, TDs, and INTs.
Expected Points Added (EPA)
How many points a play adds relative to what was expected given the down, distance, and field position.
Air Yards
The distance a pass travels through the air to a receiver, before any yards after the catch.
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