You can spend 30 minutes per prop pulling game logs, checking matchup data, and cross-referencing injury reports across five different sites. Or you can run it through the Prop Analyzer and get a convergence score in under a minute.
The convergence score doesn't predict that a player will score exactly 27 points. It tells you how many independent data signals support the thesis that he'll clear a specific line. When seven or eight signals agree, you've got a strong case. When three agree, you don't.
What the Factors Actually Measure
The engine evaluates 9 factors for NBA and NFL props, 10 for MLB. Here's what each one captures:
1. L10 Hit Rate — Has the player cleared this line recently? An 80% hit rate over the last 10 games means the player's floor is sitting above the threshold.
2. Season Average vs. Line — How much room is there between the player's season average and the book's number? A 24.8 average against a 22.5 line gives a 2.3-point cushion. A 23.1 average against the same line is razor-thin.
3. DVP Matchup — How does the opposing defense handle this position and stat? Pulled from our DVP Dashboard. Bottom-five matchups fire green.
4. Streak Momentum — Is the player on a run of 5+ consecutive games clearing the threshold? Consecutive success means the floor is above the line, which matters more than the average for short-term betting.
5. Home/Away Split — Some players produce meaningfully different numbers by venue. A 4+ point scoring difference between home and road is a real signal.
6. Injury Context — Teammate injuries that shift usage. When a team's primary scorer goes down, secondary options absorb more shots, minutes, and touches.
7. Pace Factor — Fast games produce more possessions, which means more counting stats. The difference between a top-5 and bottom-5 pace matchup can swing point totals by 3-5 points.
8. Opposing Defense Ranking — The broader defensive picture beyond just the positional matchup. A team that ranks 28th overall is vulnerable everywhere.
9. Margin of Coverage — How decisively does the player clear the line when he hits, and how narrowly does he miss when he doesn't? A player averaging +4.2 on hits and -1.8 on misses has a much sturdier relationship to the line than one averaging +1.1 on hits and -6.3 on misses.
For MLB, a 10th factor captures umpire zone tendencies — a real edge for strikeout and walk props.
Reading the Score
Our tracked results across 66 scored NBA picks:
- 7+ factors: 63.6% hit rate. These are your lead plays.
- 5-6 factors: Playable, not high-conviction. Check which factors are missing — neutral gaps are fine, actively negative ones are a warning.
- 3-4 factors: The data is split. Skip unless you have concrete outside information.
- 0-2 factors: The data opposes the bet. Pass or look at the other side.
How to Use It
As a filter. Scan for props at 7+ before tonight's slate. This cuts hundreds of available props down to a handful worth researching further.
As a second opinion. You already like a prop from your own research. If convergence confirms at 7+, bet with conviction. If it comes back at 3, figure out what you're missing before locking it in.
As a sizing guide. High convergence = full units. Solid convergence = half units. Mixed = nothing. That's your bankroll discipline right there.
What It Doesn't Do
Breaking news. If a player tweaks his ankle in warmups, no model catches that. Check injury reports within an hour of tip-off.
Game script. A team up 30 in the third quarter pulls its starters. Blowout risk is a human judgment call.
Post-move lines. The score evaluates at the line you enter. If the line shifts from 22.5 to 24.5, re-run it.
The Prop Analyzer is at heatcheckhq.io/check — any player, any stat, any line, with full factor transparency.
Related: NFL Props Hub for more nfl props coverage.
References & Tools
- Further reading: Pro-Football-Reference