Today's best Thursday Night Football props picks for Thursday, September 24, 2026 are Christian Watson (Score: 42, Packers, 100% of games with a TD and 1.5 red zone touches a game), Bijan Robinson (Score: 28, Falcons, 50% of games with a TD and 0.0 red zone touches a game), MarShawn Lloyd (Score: 28, Packers, 50% of games with a TD and 2.5 red zone touches a game). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's touchdown rate, red zone role, and matchup scoring model, updated daily.
Thursday Night Football Props: Week 3
Thursday night gives you one game to focus on, Falcons at Packers. We ran both teams through our touchdown and yardage models and pulled the plays with the usage and the matchup to back them. No odds, just the profile and the spot.
Top Plays: our best cross-sport prop edges, updated daily.
Anytime Touchdown Targets
Christian Watson, Packers WR. He has found the end zone in 100% of his games, with 1.5 red zone touches and 1.0 looks inside the 10 a game. That is the workload that turns into touchdowns.
Bijan Robinson, Falcons RB. He has found the end zone in 50% of his games, with 0.0 red zone touches and 0.0 looks inside the 10 a game. That is the workload that turns into touchdowns.
MarShawn Lloyd, Packers RB. He has found the end zone in 50% of his games, with 2.5 red zone touches and 1.5 looks inside the 10 a game. That is the workload that turns into touchdowns.
Full board on the Anytime TD dashboard.
Passing Yards
Jordan Love (Packers) averages 266 passing yards a game, vs Falcons (10th vs the position). Cooper Rush (Falcons) averages 115 passing yards a game, at Packers (23rd vs the position).
See every quarterback on the Passing Yards board.
Rushing Yards
Bijan Robinson (Falcons) averages 78 rushing yards a game, at Packers (25th vs the position). Brian Robinson (Falcons) averages 41 rushing yards a game, at Packers (25th vs the position). MarShawn Lloyd (Packers) averages 29 rushing yards a game, vs Falcons (32nd vs the position). Chris Brooks (Packers) averages 20 rushing yards a game, vs Falcons (32nd vs the position).
See every back on the Rushing Yards board.
Receiving Yards
Christian Watson (Packers) averages 94 receiving yards a game, vs Falcons (8th vs the position). Matthew Golden (Packers) averages 77 receiving yards a game, vs Falcons (8th vs the position). Tucker Kraft (Packers) averages 40 receiving yards a game, vs Falcons (8th vs the position). Drake London (Falcons) averages 40 receiving yards a game, at Packers (23rd vs the position).
See every pass catcher on the Receiving Yards board.
Related NFL research
- Anytime Touchdown Props Guide — how red-zone role and usage drive TD probability.
- Passing / Rushing / Receiving Yards Guides — reading volume and matchup for yardage props.
- Defense vs Position Guide — how to use the matchup ranks in these picks.
- NFL Player Prop Strategy — the full research workflow.
Before You Lock
These are the highest-usage players in the friendliest spots for Falcons at Packers, but a prop is only as good as the line you get. Confirm each player is active and the game script fits, then check this week's news and your own number before you bet.
Related Resources
- Parent hub: NFL Props Hub
- Author: HeatCheck HQ
- Browse all posts: Sports Betting Insights & Guides