Today's best Thursday Night Football props picks for Sunday, September 20, 2026 are Josh Allen (Score: 50, Bills, 100% of games with a TD and 2.0 red zone touches a game), Amon-Ra St. Brown (Score: 50, Lions, 100% of games with a TD and 3.0 red zone touches a game), Jahmyr Gibbs (Score: 50, Lions, 100% of games with a TD and 6.5 red zone touches a game). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's touchdown rate, red zone role, and matchup scoring model, updated daily.
Thursday Night Football Props: Week 2
Thursday night gives you one game to focus on, Lions at Bills. We ran both teams through our touchdown and yardage models and pulled the plays with the usage and the matchup to back them. No odds, just the profile and the spot.
Top Plays: our best cross-sport prop edges, updated daily.
Anytime Touchdown Targets
Josh Allen, Bills QB. He has found the end zone in 100% of his games, with 2.0 red zone touches and 1.5 looks inside the 10 a game. That is the workload that turns into touchdowns.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions WR. He has found the end zone in 100% of his games, with 3.0 red zone touches and 1.5 looks inside the 10 a game. That is the workload that turns into touchdowns.
Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions RB. He has found the end zone in 100% of his games, with 6.5 red zone touches and 3.0 looks inside the 10 a game. That is the workload that turns into touchdowns.
Full board on the Anytime TD dashboard.
Passing Yards
Josh Allen (Bills) averages 291 passing yards a game, vs Lions (4th vs the position). Jared Goff (Lions) averages 267 passing yards a game, at Bills (7th vs the position).
See every quarterback on the Passing Yards board.
Rushing Yards
Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) averages 104 rushing yards a game, at Bills (22nd vs the position). James Cook (Bills) averages 96 rushing yards a game, vs Lions (8th vs the position). Sione Vaki (Lions) averages 7 rushing yards a game, at Bills (22nd vs the position). Ray Davis (Bills) averages 2 rushing yards a game, vs Lions (8th vs the position).
See every back on the Rushing Yards board.
Receiving Yards
Dalton Kincaid (Bills) averages 113 receiving yards a game, vs Lions (4th vs the position). Amon-Ra St. Brown (Lions) averages 105 receiving yards a game, at Bills (6th vs the position). DJ Moore (Bills) averages 50 receiving yards a game, vs Lions (4th vs the position). Sam LaPorta (Lions) averages 50 receiving yards a game, at Bills (6th vs the position).
See every pass catcher on the Receiving Yards board.
Related NFL research
- Anytime Touchdown Props Guide — how red-zone role and usage drive TD probability.
- Passing / Rushing / Receiving Yards Guides — reading volume and matchup for yardage props.
- Defense vs Position Guide — how to use the matchup ranks in these picks.
- NFL Player Prop Strategy — the full research workflow.
Before You Lock
These are the highest-usage players in the friendliest spots for Lions at Bills, but a prop is only as good as the line you get. Confirm each player is active and the game script fits, then check this week's news and your own number before you bet.
Related Resources
- Parent hub: NFL Props Hub
- Author: HeatCheck HQ
- Browse all posts: Sports Betting Insights & Guides