Today's best NFL rushing yards picks for Friday, October 2, 2026 are Jahmyr Gibbs (Score: 102, 102 rushing yards a game, at Panthers (1st vs the position)), Bucky Irving (Score: 60, 60 rushing yards a game, vs Packers (5th vs the position)), Bijan Robinson (Score: 116, 116 rushing yards a game, at Saints (6th vs the position)). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's volume, recent form, and matchup scoring model, updated daily.
NFL Rushing Yards Picks: Week 4
Every running back is ranked on three things that carry week to week: how many rushing yards they produce a game, the volume behind it, and the defense they draw. We surface the high-usage players landing in the softest matchups. No odds, just the profile and the spot. Here are the Week 4 plays.
Rushing Yards Dashboard: the full board with your own line, updated as lineups confirm.
Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions RB (@ CAR)
102 rushing yds/G · L5 102 · opp 1st vs RB
Jahmyr Gibbs averages 102 rushing yards a game for the Lions. The volume backs it up at 21.7 carries a game. This week he visits the Panthers, who rank 1st against the position, a genuine soft spot.
Bucky Irving, Buccaneers RB (vs GB)
60 rushing yds/G · L5 60 · opp 5th vs RB
Bucky Irving averages 60 rushing yards a game for the Buccaneers. The volume backs it up at 13.3 carries a game. This week he hosts the Packers, who rank 5th against the position, a genuine soft spot.
Want the full board? Every running back ranked on the Rushing Yards Dashboard, or see cross-sport plays on Top Plays.
Bijan Robinson, Falcons RB (@ NO)
116 rushing yds/G · L5 116 · opp 6th vs RB
Bijan Robinson averages 116 rushing yards a game for the Falcons. The volume backs it up at 22.0 carries a game. This week he visits the Saints, who rank 6th against the position, a genuine soft spot.
Cam Skattebo, Giants RB (vs ARI)
59 rushing yds/G · L5 59 · opp 7th vs RB
Cam Skattebo averages 59 rushing yards a game for the Giants. The volume backs it up at 16.7 carries a game. This week he hosts the Cardinals, who rank 7th against the position, a genuine soft spot.
Kyren Williams, Rams RB (@ PHI)
71 rushing yds/G · L5 71 · opp 8th vs RB
Kyren Williams averages 71 rushing yards a game for the Rams. The volume backs it up at 12.7 carries a game. This week he visits the Eagles, who rank 8th against the position, a genuine soft spot.
Derrick Henry, Ravens RB (vs TEN)
100 rushing yds/G · L5 100 · opp 9th vs RB
Derrick Henry averages 100 rushing yards a game for the Ravens. The volume backs it up at 22.0 carries a game. This week he hosts the Titans, who rank 9th against the position, a genuine soft spot.
Week 4 Rushing Yards Board
| # | Player | Team | Matchup (opp rank vs pos) | Rushing Yards/G | L5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kenneth Walker III | KC | @ LV (12th) | 120 | 120 |
| 2 | Bijan Robinson | ATL | @ NO (6th) | 116 | 116 |
| 3 | James Cook | BUF | vs NE (16th) | 115 | 115 |
| 4 | Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | @ CAR (1st) | 102 | 102 |
| 5 | Derrick Henry | BAL | vs TEN (9th) | 100 | 100 |
| 6 | Jonathan Taylor | IND | @ WSH (30th) | 86 | 86 |
| 7 | D'Andre Swift | CHI | vs NYJ (26th) | 84 | 84 |
| 8 | Jaylen Warren | PIT | @ CLE (14th) | 72 | 72 |
| 9 | Kyren Williams | LAR | @ PHI (8th) | 71 | 71 |
| 10 | Ashton Jeanty | LV | vs KC (23rd) | 69 | 69 |
| 11 | Bhayshul Tuten | JAX | @ CIN (24th) | 68 | 68 |
| 12 | Aaron Jones | MIN | vs MIA (20th) | 68 | 68 |
Matchup rank is the opponent's defense-vs-position rank, where a lower number means a softer spot. L5 is the player's average over his last five games.
Related NFL research
- Anytime Touchdown Props Guide — how red-zone role and usage drive TD probability.
- Passing / Rushing / Receiving Yards Guides — reading volume and matchup for yardage props.
- Defense vs Position Guide — how to use the matchup ranks in these picks.
- NFL Player Prop Strategy — the full research workflow.
Before You Lock
These are the highest-usage rushing producers in the friendliest spots, but a prop is only as good as the line you get. Confirm the player is active and the game script fits: a team playing from ahead runs more and throws less, and the opposite when trailing. Weather matters for the passing game. Use the board to build a shortlist, then check this week's news and your own number before you bet.
Related Resources
- Parent hub: NFL Props Hub
- Author: HeatCheck HQ
- Browse all posts: Sports Betting Insights & Guides