Today's best NFL rushing yards picks for Thursday, September 10, 2026 are Javonte Williams (Score: 75, 75 rushing yards a game, at Giants (2nd vs the position)), Saquon Barkley (Score: 71, 71 rushing yards a game, vs WSH (3rd vs the position)), Tony Pollard (Score: 64, 64 rushing yards a game, vs Jets (4th vs the position)). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's volume, recent form, and matchup scoring model, updated daily.
NFL Rushing Yards Picks: Week 1
Every running back is ranked on three things that carry week to week: how many rushing yards they produce a game, the volume behind it, and the defense they draw. We surface the high-usage players landing in the softest matchups. No odds, just the profile and the spot. Here are the Week 1 plays.
Rushing Yards Dashboard: the full board with your own line, updated as lineups confirm.
Javonte Williams, Cowboys RB (@ NYG)
75 rushing yds/G · L5 61 · opp 2nd vs RB
Javonte Williams averages 75 rushing yards a game for the Cowboys. The volume backs it up at 15.8 carries a game. This week he visits the Giants, who rank 2nd against the position, a genuine soft spot. His recent form has cooled to 61 rushing yards over his last five.
Saquon Barkley, Eagles RB (vs WSH)
71 rushing yds/G · L5 91 · opp 3rd vs RB
Saquon Barkley averages 71 rushing yards a game for the Eagles. The volume backs it up at 17.5 carries a game. This week he hosts the WSH, who rank 3rd against the position, a genuine soft spot. His last five games are trending up, averaging 91 rushing yards.
Want the full board? Every running back ranked on the Rushing Yards Dashboard, or see cross-sport plays on Top Plays.
Tony Pollard, Titans RB (vs NYJ)
64 rushing yds/G · L5 100 · opp 4th vs RB
Tony Pollard averages 64 rushing yards a game for the Titans. The volume backs it up at 14.2 carries a game. This week he hosts the Jets, who rank 4th against the position, a genuine soft spot. His last five games are trending up, averaging 100 rushing yards.
Rico Dowdle, Panthers RB (vs CHI)
63 rushing yds/G · L5 41 · opp 6th vs RB
Rico Dowdle averages 63 rushing yards a game for the Panthers. The volume backs it up at 13.9 carries a game. This week he hosts the Bears, who rank 6th against the position, a genuine soft spot. His recent form has cooled to 41 rushing yards over his last five.
Omarion Hampton, Chargers RB (vs ARI)
61 rushing yds/G · L5 55 · opp 8th vs RB
Omarion Hampton averages 61 rushing yards a game for the Chargers. The volume backs it up at 13.8 carries a game. This week he hosts the Cardinals, who rank 8th against the position, a genuine soft spot. His recent form has cooled to 55 rushing yards over his last five.
Josh Jacobs, Packers RB (@ MIN)
62 rushing yds/G · L5 56 · opp 12th vs RB
Josh Jacobs averages 62 rushing yards a game for the Packers. The volume backs it up at 15.6 carries a game. This week he visits the Vikings, a tougher draw at 12th against the position. His recent form has cooled to 56 rushing yards over his last five.
Week 1 Rushing Yards Board
| # | Player | Team | Matchup (opp rank vs pos) | Rushing Yards/G | L5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Cook | BUF | @ HOU (30th) | 95 | 79 |
| 2 | Derrick Henry | BAL | @ IND (27th) | 94 | 133 |
| 3 | Jonathan Taylor | IND | vs BAL (24th) | 93 | 61 |
| 4 | Bijan Robinson | ATL | @ PIT (20th) | 87 | 97 |
| 5 | De'Von Achane | MIA | @ LV (16th) | 84 | 90 |
| 6 | J.K. Dobbins | DEN | @ KC (25th) | 77 | 74 |
| 7 | Javonte Williams | DAL | @ NYG (2nd) | 75 | 61 |
| 8 | Kyren Williams | LA | vs SF (23rd) | 74 | 77 |
| 9 | Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | vs NO (14th) | 72 | 41 |
| 10 | Saquon Barkley | PHI | vs WSH (3rd) | 71 | 91 |
| 11 | Christian McCaffrey | SF | @ LAR (21st) | 71 | 81 |
| 12 | D'Andre Swift | CHI | @ CAR (13th) | 68 | 63 |
Matchup rank is the opponent's defense-vs-position rank, where a lower number means a softer spot. L5 is the player's average over his last five games.
Related NFL research
- Anytime Touchdown Props Guide — how red-zone role and usage drive TD probability.
- Passing / Rushing / Receiving Yards Guides — reading volume and matchup for yardage props.
- Defense vs Position Guide — how to use the matchup ranks in these picks.
- NFL Player Prop Strategy — the full research workflow.
Before You Lock
These are the highest-usage rushing producers in the friendliest spots, but a prop is only as good as the line you get. Confirm the player is active and the game script fits: a team playing from ahead runs more and throws less, and the opposite when trailing. Weather matters for the passing game. Use the board to build a shortlist, then check this week's news and your own number before you bet.
Related Resources
- Parent hub: NFL Props Hub
- Author: HeatCheck HQ
- Browse all posts: Sports Betting Insights & Guides