Today's best NFL passing yards picks for Saturday, September 26, 2026 are C.J. Stroud (Score: 314, 314 passing yards a game, at Colts (1st vs the position)), Geno Smith (Score: 231, 231 passing yards a game, at Lions (2nd vs the position)), Jordan Love (Score: 266, 266 passing yards a game, vs Falcons (4th vs the position)). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's volume, recent form, and matchup scoring model, updated daily.
NFL Passing Yards Picks: Week 3
Every quarterback is ranked on three things that carry week to week: how many passing yards they produce a game, the volume behind it, and the defense they draw. We surface the high-usage players landing in the softest matchups. No odds, just the profile and the spot. Here are the Week 3 plays.
Passing Yards Dashboard: the full board with your own line, updated as lineups confirm.
C.J. Stroud, Texans QB (@ IND)
314 passing yds/G · L5 314 · opp 1st vs QB
C.J. Stroud averages 314 passing yards a game for the Texans. This week he visits the Colts, who rank 1st against the position, a genuine soft spot.
Geno Smith, Jets QB (@ DET)
231 passing yds/G · L5 231 · opp 2nd vs QB
Geno Smith averages 231 passing yards a game for the Jets. This week he visits the Lions, who rank 2nd against the position, a genuine soft spot.
Want the full board? Every quarterback ranked on the Passing Yards Dashboard, or see cross-sport plays on Top Plays.
Jordan Love, Packers QB (vs ATL)
266 passing yds/G · L5 266 · opp 4th vs QB
Jordan Love averages 266 passing yards a game for the Packers. This week he hosts the Falcons, who rank 4th against the position, a genuine soft spot.
Josh Allen, Bills QB (vs LAC)
291 passing yds/G · L5 291 · opp 5th vs QB
Josh Allen averages 291 passing yards a game for the Bills. This week he hosts the Chargers, who rank 5th against the position, a genuine soft spot.
Jalen Hurts, Eagles QB (@ CHI)
234 passing yds/G · L5 234 · opp 10th vs QB
Jalen Hurts averages 234 passing yards a game for the Eagles. This week he visits the Bears, who rank 10th against the position, a genuine soft spot.
Drew Lock, Seahawks QB (@ WSH)
211 passing yds/G · L5 211 · opp 14th vs QB
Drew Lock averages 211 passing yards a game for the Seahawks. This week he visits the WSH, a tougher draw at 14th against the position.
Week 3 Passing Yards Board
| # | Player | Team | Matchup (opp rank vs pos) | Passing Yards/G | L5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tyler Shough | NO | vs LV (23rd) | 331 | 331 |
| 2 | Bryce Young | CAR | @ CLE (17th) | 324 | 324 |
| 3 | C.J. Stroud | HOU | @ IND (1st) | 314 | 314 |
| 4 | Josh Allen | BUF | vs LAC (5th) | 291 | 291 |
| 5 | Patrick Mahomes | KC | @ MIA (15th) | 283 | 283 |
| 6 | Lamar Jackson | BAL | @ DAL (16th) | 280 | 280 |
| 7 | Jared Goff | DET | vs NYJ (31st) | 267 | 267 |
| 8 | Jordan Love | GB | vs ATL (4th) | 266 | 266 |
| 9 | Brock Purdy | SF | vs ARI (19th) | 246 | 246 |
| 10 | Matthew Stafford | LAR | @ DEN (25th) | 241 | 241 |
| 11 | Jalen Hurts | PHI | @ CHI (10th) | 234 | 234 |
| 12 | Geno Smith | NYJ | @ DET (2nd) | 231 | 231 |
Matchup rank is the opponent's defense-vs-position rank, where a lower number means a softer spot. L5 is the player's average over his last five games.
Related NFL research
- Anytime Touchdown Props Guide — how red-zone role and usage drive TD probability.
- Passing / Rushing / Receiving Yards Guides — reading volume and matchup for yardage props.
- Defense vs Position Guide — how to use the matchup ranks in these picks.
- NFL Player Prop Strategy — the full research workflow.
Before You Lock
These are the highest-usage passing producers in the friendliest spots, but a prop is only as good as the line you get. Confirm the player is active and the game script fits: a team playing from ahead runs more and throws less, and the opposite when trailing. Weather matters for the passing game. Use the board to build a shortlist, then check this week's news and your own number before you bet.
Related Resources
- Parent hub: NFL Props Hub
- Author: HeatCheck HQ
- Browse all posts: Sports Betting Insights & Guides