Today's best NFL passing yards picks for Thursday, September 10, 2026 are Daniel Jones (Score: 239, 239 passing yards a game, vs Ravens (3rd vs the position)), Michael Penix Jr. (Score: 220, 220 passing yards a game, at Steelers (4th vs the position)), Joe Burrow (Score: 226, 226 passing yards a game, vs Buccaneers (6th vs the position)). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's volume, recent form, and matchup scoring model, updated daily.
NFL Passing Yards Picks: Week 1
Every quarterback is ranked on three things that carry week to week: how many passing yards they produce a game, the volume behind it, and the defense they draw. We surface the high-usage players landing in the softest matchups. No odds, just the profile and the spot. Here are the Week 1 plays.
Passing Yards Dashboard: the full board with your own line, updated as lineups confirm.
Daniel Jones, Colts QB (vs BAL)
239 passing yds/G · L5 208 · opp 3rd vs QB
Daniel Jones averages 239 passing yards a game for the Colts. This week he hosts the Ravens, who rank 3rd against the position, a genuine soft spot. His recent form has cooled to 208 passing yards over his last five.
Michael Penix Jr., Falcons QB (@ PIT)
220 passing yds/G · L5 213 · opp 4th vs QB
Michael Penix Jr. averages 220 passing yards a game for the Falcons. This week he visits the Steelers, who rank 4th against the position, a genuine soft spot. His recent form has cooled to 213 passing yards over his last five.
Want the full board? Every quarterback ranked on the Passing Yards Dashboard, or see cross-sport plays on Top Plays.
Joe Burrow, Bengals QB (vs TB)
226 passing yds/G · L5 272 · opp 6th vs QB
Joe Burrow averages 226 passing yards a game for the Bengals. This week he hosts the Buccaneers, who rank 6th against the position, a genuine soft spot. His last five games are trending up, averaging 272 passing yards.
Matthew Stafford, LA QB (vs SF)
277 passing yds/G · L5 327 · opp 8th vs QB
Matthew Stafford averages 277 passing yards a game for the LA. This week he hosts the 49ers, who rank 8th against the position, a genuine soft spot. His last five games are trending up, averaging 327 passing yards.
Justin Herbert, Chargers QB (vs ARI)
233 passing yds/G · L5 207 · opp 9th vs QB
Justin Herbert averages 233 passing yards a game for the Chargers. This week he hosts the Cardinals, who rank 9th against the position, a genuine soft spot. His recent form has cooled to 207 passing yards over his last five.
Brock Purdy, 49ers QB (@ LAR)
241 passing yds/G · L5 238 · opp 14th vs QB
Brock Purdy averages 241 passing yards a game for the 49ers. This week he visits the Rams, a tougher draw at 14th against the position. His recent form has cooled to 238 passing yards over his last five.
Week 1 Passing Yards Board
| # | Player | Team | Matchup (opp rank vs pos) | Passing Yards/G | L5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matthew Stafford | LA | vs SF (8th) | 277 | 327 |
| 2 | Jared Goff | DET | vs NO (28th) | 269 | 308 |
| 3 | Dak Prescott | DAL | @ NYG (17th) | 268 | 258 |
| 4 | Drake Maye | NE | @ SEA (29th) | 259 | 253 |
| 5 | Patrick Mahomes | KC | vs DEN (25th) | 256 | 248 |
| 6 | Carson Wentz | MIN | vs GB (22nd) | 243 | 243 |
| 7 | Brock Purdy | SF | @ LAR (14th) | 241 | 238 |
| 8 | Jacoby Brissett | ARI | @ LAC (27th) | 240 | 236 |
| 9 | Daniel Jones | IND | vs BAL (3rd) | 239 | 208 |
| 10 | Sam Darnold | SEA | vs NE (24th) | 238 | 227 |
| 11 | Trevor Lawrence | JAX | vs CLE (30th) | 236 | 274 |
| 12 | Justin Herbert | LAC | vs ARI (9th) | 233 | 207 |
Matchup rank is the opponent's defense-vs-position rank, where a lower number means a softer spot. L5 is the player's average over his last five games.
Related NFL research
- Anytime Touchdown Props Guide — how red-zone role and usage drive TD probability.
- Passing / Rushing / Receiving Yards Guides — reading volume and matchup for yardage props.
- Defense vs Position Guide — how to use the matchup ranks in these picks.
- NFL Player Prop Strategy — the full research workflow.
Before You Lock
These are the highest-usage passing producers in the friendliest spots, but a prop is only as good as the line you get. Confirm the player is active and the game script fits: a team playing from ahead runs more and throws less, and the opposite when trailing. Weather matters for the passing game. Use the board to build a shortlist, then check this week's news and your own number before you bet.
Related Resources
- Parent hub: NFL Props Hub
- Author: HeatCheck HQ
- Browse all posts: Sports Betting Insights & Guides