# NFL Anytime Touchdown Picks: Week 4 2026

> NFL anytime TD picks for Week 4 2026. The best touchdown scorers by red-zone role and hit rate, scored and ranked. Josh Allen headlines the board.

**Date:** 2026-10-06  
**Author:** HeatCheck HQ  
**Tags:** NFL, Anytime Touchdown, TD Props, Anytime TD Scorer, Weekly Picks, Player Props, Betting Strategy  
**Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/nfl-anytime-td-picks-week-4-2026  
**Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io

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**Today's best NFL anytime touchdown picks for Tuesday, October 6, 2026** are Josh Allen (Score: 50, 2.3 red-zone touches per game, scores in 100% of games), Jahmyr Gibbs (Score: 50, 7.7 red-zone touches per game, scores in 100% of games), Derrick Henry (Score: 50, 6.7 red-zone touches per game, scores in 100% of games). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's red-zone usage and touchdown-rate scoring model, updated daily.

# NFL Anytime Touchdown Picks: Week 4

Every skill-position player is scored on the two things that actually drive an anytime touchdown: how often they touch the ball inside the red zone, and how reliably that has turned into scores. No odds, no guesswork, just the usage and the rate. Here are the Week 4 plays.

> [Anytime TD Dashboard](/nfl/anytime-td): the full board, updated as roles and injuries settle each week.

## Josh Allen, Bills QB

*TD Score 50 · 2.3 RZ touches/G · 1.7 inside-10/G · 6 TD this season*

Josh Allen is the Bills' clearest goal-line weapon, with 1.7 touches a game inside the 10 and a score in 100% of his games. Inside-the-10 work is the most repeatable path to an anytime touchdown, and he owns it here.

## Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions RB

*TD Score 50 · 7.7 RZ touches/G · 3.0 inside-10/G · 6 TD this season*

Nobody on the Lions sees the goal line like Jahmyr Gibbs: 3.0 touches a game inside the 10, which has already produced a touchdown in 100% of his games. That is exactly the usage you want in a TD prop.

> **Want the full board?** All skill players ranked on the [Anytime TD Dashboard](/nfl/anytime-td), or see cross-sport plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays).

## Derrick Henry, Ravens RB

*TD Score 50 · 6.7 RZ touches/G · 4.7 inside-10/G · 6 TD this season*

Derrick Henry lives at the goal line for the Ravens. His 4.7 touches a game inside the 10 are the reason he has scored in 100% of his games, and it is the kind of role that repeats week to week.

## Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seahawks WR

*TD Score 50 · 3.0 RZ touches/G · 1.7 inside-10/G · 6 TD this season*

Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the Seahawks' clearest goal-line weapon, with 1.7 touches a game inside the 10 and a score in 100% of his games. Inside-the-10 work is the most repeatable path to an anytime touchdown, and he owns it here.

## Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions WR

*TD Score 50 · 3.0 RZ touches/G · 1.3 inside-10/G · 5 TD this season*

Scoring in 100% of his games, Amon-Ra St. Brown is not living on luck. The Lions funnel 3.0 red-zone touches a game his way, which is what turns a hot rate into a repeatable one.

## Christian Watson, Packers WR

*TD Score 50 · 2.0 RZ touches/G · 1.3 inside-10/G · 4 TD this season*

Scoring in 100% of his games, Christian Watson is not living on luck. The Packers funnel 2.0 red-zone touches a game his way, which is what turns a hot rate into a repeatable one.

## Week 4 Anytime TD Board

| # | Player | Team | Pos | TD Score | Anytime TD% | RZ Touches/G | Inside-10/G |
|---|--------|------|-----|----------|-------------|--------------|-------------|
| 1 | Josh Allen | BUF | QB | 50 | 100% | 2.3 | 1.7 |
| 2 | Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | RB | 50 | 100% | 7.7 | 3.0 |
| 3 | Derrick Henry | BAL | RB | 50 | 100% | 6.7 | 4.7 |
| 4 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | WR | 50 | 100% | 3.0 | 1.7 |
| 5 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | WR | 50 | 100% | 3.0 | 1.3 |
| 6 | Christian Watson | GB | WR | 50 | 100% | 2.0 | 1.3 |
| 7 | Jonathan Taylor | IND | RB | 38 | 67% | 4.3 | 2.0 |
| 8 | Kenneth Walker III | KC | RB | 38 | 67% | 6.7 | 3.3 |
| 9 | Christian McCaffrey | SF | RB | 38 | 67% | 3.7 | 2.0 |
| 10 | Chuba Hubbard | CAR | RB | 38 | 67% | 2.7 | 2.3 |
| 11 | Javonte Williams | DAL | RB | 38 | 67% | 4.7 | 2.3 |
| 12 | Bijan Robinson | ATL | RB | 38 | 67% | 3.7 | 2.3 |

TD Score is a red-zone-usage and touchdown-rate ranking, shrunk toward the league average so a small-sample fluke does not top the board. Anytime TD% is the observed share of games with at least one touchdown.

## Related NFL research

- [Anytime Touchdown Props Guide](/blog/nfl-anytime-touchdown-props-guide) — how red-zone role and usage drive TD probability.
- [Passing / Rushing / Receiving Yards Guides](/blog/nfl-rushing-receiving-yards-props-guide) — reading volume and matchup for yardage props.
- [Defense vs Position Guide](/blog/nfl-defense-vs-position-guide) — how to use the matchup ranks in these picks.
- [NFL Player Prop Strategy](/blog/nfl-player-prop-strategy-guide) — the full research workflow.

## Before You Lock

Touchdowns are volatile, so treat this as a shortlist, not a lock sheet. Confirm the player is active and in his usual role, since a healthy backfield or a change at quarterback can move red-zone touches fast. Check the game total: more expected points means more trips to the red zone and more shots at a score. The board is ranked on season-long role and rate, which is the repeatable signal, so pair it with this week's news before you bet.

## Related Resources

- Parent hub: [NFL Props Hub](/blog/topic/nfl-props)
- Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq)
- Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog)


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