# NFL Anytime Touchdown Picks: Week 3 2026 > Data driven NFL anytime touchdown picks for Week 3. Ranked by a red-zone usage and touchdown-rate model, no guesswork. Josh Allen leads the board. **Date:** 2026-09-29 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** NFL, Anytime Touchdown, TD Props, Anytime TD Scorer, Weekly Picks, Player Props, Betting Strategy **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/nfl-anytime-td-picks-week-3-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best NFL anytime touchdown picks for Tuesday, September 29, 2026** are Josh Allen (Score: 42, 2.0 red-zone touches per game, scores in 100% of games), Derrick Henry (Score: 42, 5.5 red-zone touches per game, scores in 100% of games), Jonathan Taylor (Score: 42, 5.0 red-zone touches per game, scores in 100% of games). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's red-zone usage and touchdown-rate scoring model, updated daily. # NFL Anytime Touchdown Picks: Week 3 Every skill-position player is scored on the two things that actually drive an anytime touchdown: how often they touch the ball inside the red zone, and how reliably that has turned into scores. No odds, no guesswork, just the usage and the rate. Here are the Week 3 plays. > [Anytime TD Dashboard](/nfl/anytime-td): the full board, updated as roles and injuries settle each week. ## Josh Allen, Bills QB *TD Score 42 · 2.0 RZ touches/G · 1.5 inside-10/G · 4 TD this season* Josh Allen is the Bills' clearest goal-line weapon, with 1.5 touches a game inside the 10 and a score in 100% of his games. Inside-the-10 work is the most repeatable path to an anytime touchdown, and he owns it here. ## Derrick Henry, Ravens RB *TD Score 42 · 5.5 RZ touches/G · 3.5 inside-10/G · 4 TD this season* Derrick Henry is the Ravens' clearest goal-line weapon, with 3.5 touches a game inside the 10 and a score in 100% of his games. Inside-the-10 work is the most repeatable path to an anytime touchdown, and he owns it here. > **Want the full board?** All skill players ranked on the [Anytime TD Dashboard](/nfl/anytime-td), or see cross-sport plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays). ## Jonathan Taylor, Colts RB *TD Score 42 · 5.0 RZ touches/G · 3.0 inside-10/G · 4 TD this season* Jonathan Taylor is the Colts' clearest goal-line weapon, with 3.0 touches a game inside the 10 and a score in 100% of his games. Inside-the-10 work is the most repeatable path to an anytime touchdown, and he owns it here. ## Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions WR *TD Score 42 · 3.0 RZ touches/G · 1.5 inside-10/G · 4 TD this season* Amon-Ra St. Brown lives at the goal line for the Lions. His 1.5 touches a game inside the 10 are the reason he has scored in 100% of his games, and it is the kind of role that repeats week to week. ## Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seahawks WR *TD Score 42 · 3.0 RZ touches/G · 1.5 inside-10/G · 4 TD this season* Jaxon Smith-Njigba lives at the goal line for the Seahawks. His 1.5 touches a game inside the 10 are the reason he has scored in 100% of his games, and it is the kind of role that repeats week to week. ## Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions RB *TD Score 42 · 6.5 RZ touches/G · 3.0 inside-10/G · 3 TD this season* Jahmyr Gibbs is the Lions' clearest goal-line weapon, with 3.0 touches a game inside the 10 and a score in 100% of his games. Inside-the-10 work is the most repeatable path to an anytime touchdown, and he owns it here. ## Week 3 Anytime TD Board | # | Player | Team | Pos | TD Score | Anytime TD% | RZ Touches/G | Inside-10/G | |---|--------|------|-----|----------|-------------|--------------|-------------| | 1 | Josh Allen | BUF | QB | 42 | 100% | 2.0 | 1.5 | | 2 | Derrick Henry | BAL | RB | 42 | 100% | 5.5 | 3.5 | | 3 | Jonathan Taylor | IND | RB | 42 | 100% | 5.0 | 3.0 | | 4 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | WR | 42 | 100% | 3.0 | 1.5 | | 5 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | WR | 42 | 100% | 3.0 | 1.5 | | 6 | Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | RB | 42 | 100% | 6.5 | 3.0 | | 7 | Chuba Hubbard | CAR | RB | 42 | 100% | 4.0 | 3.5 | | 8 | Stefon Diggs | WSH | WR | 42 | 100% | 2.0 | 1.0 | | 9 | CeeDee Lamb | DAL | WR | 42 | 100% | 1.5 | 1.0 | | 10 | Christian Watson | GB | WR | 42 | 100% | 1.5 | 1.0 | | 11 | Kyren Williams | LAR | RB | 42 | 100% | 3.5 | 2.5 | | 12 | Omarion Hampton | LAC | RB | 42 | 100% | 2.0 | 1.0 | TD Score is a red-zone-usage and touchdown-rate ranking, shrunk toward the league average so a small-sample fluke does not top the board. Anytime TD% is the observed share of games with at least one touchdown. ## Related NFL research - [Anytime Touchdown Props Guide](/blog/nfl-anytime-touchdown-props-guide) — how red-zone role and usage drive TD probability. - [Passing / Rushing / Receiving Yards Guides](/blog/nfl-rushing-receiving-yards-props-guide) — reading volume and matchup for yardage props. - [Defense vs Position Guide](/blog/nfl-defense-vs-position-guide) — how to use the matchup ranks in these picks. - [NFL Player Prop Strategy](/blog/nfl-player-prop-strategy-guide) — the full research workflow. ## Before You Lock Touchdowns are volatile, so treat this as a shortlist, not a lock sheet. Confirm the player is active and in his usual role, since a healthy backfield or a change at quarterback can move red-zone touches fast. Check the game total: more expected points means more trips to the red zone and more shots at a score. The board is ranked on season-long role and rate, which is the repeatable signal, so pair it with this week's news before you bet. ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [NFL Props Hub](/blog/topic/nfl-props) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*