Today's best NFL anytime touchdown picks for Tuesday, September 22, 2026 are Josh Allen (Score: 43, 2.0 red-zone touches per game, scores in 100% of games), Amon-Ra St. Brown (Score: 43, 3.0 red-zone touches per game, scores in 100% of games), Jahmyr Gibbs (Score: 43, 6.5 red-zone touches per game, scores in 100% of games). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's red-zone usage and touchdown-rate scoring model, updated daily.
NFL Anytime Touchdown Picks: Week 2
Every skill-position player is scored on the two things that actually drive an anytime touchdown: how often they touch the ball inside the red zone, and how reliably that has turned into scores. No odds, no guesswork, just the usage and the rate. Here are the Week 2 plays.
Anytime TD Dashboard: the full board, updated as roles and injuries settle each week.
Josh Allen, Bills QB
TD Score 43 · 2.0 RZ touches/G · 1.5 inside-10/G · 4 TD this season
Josh Allen is the Bills' clearest goal-line weapon, with 1.5 touches a game inside the 10 and a score in 100% of his games. Inside-the-10 work is the most repeatable path to an anytime touchdown, and he owns it here.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions WR
TD Score 43 · 3.0 RZ touches/G · 1.5 inside-10/G · 4 TD this season
Nobody on the Lions sees the goal line like Amon-Ra St. Brown: 1.5 touches a game inside the 10, which has already produced a touchdown in 100% of his games. That is exactly the usage you want in a TD prop.
Want the full board? All skill players ranked on the Anytime TD Dashboard, or see cross-sport plays on Top Plays.
Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions RB
TD Score 43 · 6.5 RZ touches/G · 3.0 inside-10/G · 3 TD this season
Jahmyr Gibbs is the Lions' clearest goal-line weapon, with 3.0 touches a game inside the 10 and a score in 100% of his games. Inside-the-10 work is the most repeatable path to an anytime touchdown, and he owns it here.
Josh Palmer, Bills WR
TD Score 43 · 0.0 RZ touches/G · 0.0 inside-10/G · 2 TD this season
Scoring in 100% of his games, Josh Palmer is not living on luck. The Bills funnel 0.0 red-zone touches a game his way, which is what turns a hot rate into a repeatable one.
Derrick Henry, Ravens RB
TD Score 34 · 6.0 RZ touches/G · 5.0 inside-10/G · 3 TD this season
Derrick Henry is the Ravens' clearest goal-line weapon, with 5.0 touches a game inside the 10 and a score in 100% of his games. Inside-the-10 work is the most repeatable path to an anytime touchdown, and he owns it here.
David Montgomery, Texans RB
TD Score 34 · 6.0 RZ touches/G · 5.0 inside-10/G · 3 TD this season
Nobody on the Texans sees the goal line like David Montgomery: 5.0 touches a game inside the 10, which has already produced a touchdown in 100% of his games. That is exactly the usage you want in a TD prop.
Week 2 Anytime TD Board
| # | Player | Team | Pos | TD Score | Anytime TD% | RZ Touches/G | Inside-10/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Allen | BUF | QB | 43 | 100% | 2.0 | 1.5 |
| 2 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | WR | 43 | 100% | 3.0 | 1.5 |
| 3 | Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | RB | 43 | 100% | 6.5 | 3.0 |
| 4 | Josh Palmer | BUF | WR | 43 | 100% | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | Derrick Henry | BAL | RB | 34 | 100% | 6.0 | 5.0 |
| 6 | David Montgomery | HOU | RB | 34 | 100% | 6.0 | 5.0 |
| 7 | D'Andre Swift | CHI | RB | 34 | 100% | 6.0 | 4.0 |
| 8 | Caleb Williams | CHI | QB | 34 | 100% | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| 9 | Jonathan Taylor | IND | RB | 34 | 100% | 5.0 | 4.0 |
| 10 | Chuba Hubbard | CAR | RB | 34 | 100% | 4.0 | 4.0 |
| 11 | Javonte Williams | DAL | RB | 34 | 100% | 5.0 | 3.0 |
| 12 | Kenneth Walker III | KC | RB | 34 | 100% | 4.0 | 3.0 |
TD Score is a red-zone-usage and touchdown-rate ranking, shrunk toward the league average so a small-sample fluke does not top the board. Anytime TD% is the observed share of games with at least one touchdown.
Related NFL research
- Anytime Touchdown Props Guide — how red-zone role and usage drive TD probability.
- Passing / Rushing / Receiving Yards Guides — reading volume and matchup for yardage props.
- Defense vs Position Guide — how to use the matchup ranks in these picks.
- NFL Player Prop Strategy — the full research workflow.
Before You Lock
Touchdowns are volatile, so treat this as a shortlist, not a lock sheet. Confirm the player is active and in his usual role, since a healthy backfield or a change at quarterback can move red-zone touches fast. Check the game total: more expected points means more trips to the red zone and more shots at a score. The board is ranked on season-long role and rate, which is the repeatable signal, so pair it with this week's news before you bet.
Related Resources
- Parent hub: NFL Props Hub
- Author: HeatCheck HQ
- Browse all posts: Sports Betting Insights & Guides