# NFL Anytime TD Scorer Picks: Week 10 2026 (Every Game)

> Week 10 anytime TD scorer picks, game by game. Red-zone usage, goal-line role, and the defenses giving up touchdowns. Mike Gesicki tops the board.

**Date:** 2026-11-10  
**Author:** HeatCheck HQ  
**Tags:** NFL, Anytime Touchdown, TD Props, Anytime TD Scorer, Weekly Picks, Player Props, Betting Strategy  
**Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/nfl-anytime-td-picks-week-10-2026  
**Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io

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**Today's best NFL anytime touchdown picks for Tuesday, November 10, 2026** are Mike Gesicki (Score: 64, 0.8 red-zone touches per game, scores in 100% of games), Jahmyr Gibbs (Score: 58, 6.6 red-zone touches per game, scores in 86% of games), Josh Allen (Score: 58, 2.4 red-zone touches per game, scores in 86% of games). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's red-zone usage and touchdown-rate scoring model, updated daily.

# NFL Anytime Touchdown Picks: Week 10

I went through all 14 games on the Week 10 slate and pulled two anytime touchdown plays from each. The picks start with role: who gets the ball in the red zone and inside the 10, and how often that has already turned into scores. Then I check the matchup, specifically how many touchdowns the opposing defense gives up to that position. Anyone ruled out is off the card. On bye: Bears, Broncos, Eagles, Buccaneers, Commanders.

> [Anytime TD Dashboard](/nfl/anytime-td): every skill player ranked, updated as injuries and roles settle.

## Week 10 Anytime TD Picks at a Glance

| Game | Kickoff (ET) | Pick | Team / Pos | Games w/ TD | Opp TDs Allowed Rank |
|------|--------------|------|------------|-------------|----------------------|
| WSH @ NYG | Thu 8:15 PM | Stefon Diggs | WSH WR | 4/6 | 9th |
| WSH @ NYG | Thu 8:15 PM | Isaiah Likely | NYG TE | 3/7 | 5th |
| NE @ DET | Sun 9:30 AM | Jahmyr Gibbs | DET RB | 6/7 | 19th |
| NE @ DET | Sun 9:30 AM | DeMario Douglas | NE WR | 3/8 | 1st |
| KC @ ATL | Sun 1:00 PM | Kenneth Walker III | KC RB | 4/7 | 9th |
| KC @ ATL | Sun 1:00 PM | Bijan Robinson | ATL RB | 3/8 | 26th |
| HOU @ CLE | Sun 1:00 PM | Denzel Boston | CLE WR | 3/8 | 17th |
| HOU @ CLE | Sun 1:00 PM | Nico Collins | HOU WR | 2/5 | 23rd |
| MIN @ GB | Sun 1:00 PM | Christian Watson | GB WR | 4/8 | 32nd |
| MIN @ GB | Sun 1:00 PM | Justin Jefferson | MIN WR | 3/6 | 19th |
| JAX @ TEN | Sun 1:00 PM | Bhayshul Tuten | JAX RB | 4/7 | 4th |
| JAX @ TEN | Sun 1:00 PM | Tony Pollard | TEN RB | 3/8 | 28th |
| MIA @ IND | Sun 1:00 PM | Jonathan Taylor | IND RB | 5/8 | 23rd |
| MIA @ IND | Sun 1:00 PM | Ollie Gordon II | MIA RB | 4/6 | 15th |
| CAR @ NO | Sun 1:00 PM | Chuba Hubbard | CAR RB | 5/7 | 2nd |
| CAR @ NO | Sun 1:00 PM | Devaughn Vele | NO WR | 3/7 | 16th |
| BUF @ NYJ | Sun 1:00 PM | Josh Allen | BUF QB | 6/7 | n/a |
| BUF @ NYJ | Sun 1:00 PM | Garrett Wilson | NYJ WR | 3/8 | 6th |
| SEA @ LV | Sun 4:05 PM | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA WR | 6/8 | 2nd |
| SEA @ LV | Sun 4:05 PM | Brock Bowers | LV TE | 4/6 | 28th |
| LAR @ ARI | Sun 4:05 PM | Kyren Williams | LAR RB | 6/8 | 12th |
| LAR @ ARI | Sun 4:05 PM | Trey McBride | ARI TE | 5/8 | 26th |
| SF @ DAL | Sun 4:25 PM | Christian McCaffrey | SF RB | 6/7 | 7th |
| SF @ DAL | Sun 4:25 PM | Javonte Williams | DAL RB | 6/8 | 30th |
| PIT @ CIN | Sun 8:20 PM | Mike Gesicki | CIN TE | 6/6 | 31st |
| PIT @ CIN | Sun 8:20 PM | Pat Freiermuth | PIT TE | 4/8 | 27th |
| LAC @ BAL | Mon 8:15 PM | Derrick Henry | BAL RB | 6/8 | 3rd |
| LAC @ BAL | Mon 8:15 PM | Omarion Hampton | LAC RB | 3/7 | 6th |

Opp TDs Allowed Rank is where the opposing defense ranks in touchdowns allowed to that position (1st = most allowed).

## WSH vs. Giants Anytime TD Picks

*Thursday 8:15 PM ET · Prime Video · Total 41.5 · NYG -2.5*

With only 41.5 points expected, touchdowns will be scarce. Role matters more than ever in this one. The Giants are favored by 2.5, which tilts the extra red-zone trips toward Isaiah Likely.

**Stefon Diggs (WSH WR)**: Stefon Diggs has scored in 4 of 6 games this season, and it is backed by 1.0 red-zone touches a game for the WSH. That is a rate with volume underneath it. The Giants sit in the middle of the pack against WRs (1.8 receiving touchdowns a game to WRs, 9th most), so this is a role bet more than a matchup bet.

**Isaiah Likely (NYG TE)**: Isaiah Likely is a volume play: 1.3 red-zone touches a game for the Giants and 5 touchdowns so far, scoring in 3 of 7 games. The matchup helps: the WSH give up 2.0 receiving touchdowns a game to TEs, 5th most in the league.

**Verdict:** Stefon Diggs anytime TD, Isaiah Likely anytime TD

## Patriots vs. Lions Anytime TD Picks

*Sunday 9:30 AM ET · Fox · Total 51.5 · DET -2.5*

Books expect points here: the 51.5 total is one of the highest on the board. The Lions are laying 2.5, and the team expected to win usually gets more goal-line looks. That helps Jahmyr Gibbs.

**Jahmyr Gibbs (DET RB)**: When the Lions get close, the ball goes to Jahmyr Gibbs: 2.7 touches a game inside the 10, 10 touchdowns, and a score in 6 of 7 games. The Patriots sit in the middle of the pack against RBs (0.9 rushing touchdowns a game to RBs, 19th most), so this is a role bet more than a matchup bet.

**DeMario Douglas (NE WR)**: The case for DeMario Douglas is opportunity. He sees 0.5 red-zone touches a game for the Patriots, and that role has produced 4 touchdowns in 8 games. The matchup helps: the Lions give up 2.3 receiving touchdowns a game to WRs, the most in the league.

**Verdict:** Jahmyr Gibbs anytime TD, DeMario Douglas anytime TD

## Chiefs vs. Falcons Anytime TD Picks

*Sunday 1:00 PM ET · CBS · Total 45.5 · KC -3.5*

Nothing extreme on the total (45.5), so the picks here lean on role. Chiefs by 3.5 is a small edge, but it is another reason to like Kenneth Walker III.

**Kenneth Walker III (KC RB)**: When the Chiefs get close, the ball goes to Kenneth Walker III: 3.4 touches a game inside the 10, 8 touchdowns, and a score in 4 of 7 games. The Falcons sit in the middle of the pack against RBs (1.1 rushing touchdowns a game to RBs, 9th most), so this is a role bet more than a matchup bet.

**Bijan Robinson (ATL RB)**: The case for Bijan Robinson is opportunity. He sees 3.3 red-zone touches a game for the Falcons, and that role has produced 5 touchdowns in 8 games. With Brian Robinson out, more of that work flows to him this week. The matchup is the hurdle. The Chiefs allow just 0.6 rushing touchdowns a game to RBs, 7th fewest, so the role has to carry this one.

**Verdict:** Kenneth Walker III anytime TD, Bijan Robinson anytime TD

> **Building a card?** Cross-check these on the [NFL Defense vs Position](/nfl/defense-vs-position) dashboard, or see cross-sport plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays).

## Texans vs. Browns Anytime TD Picks

*Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Fox · Total 39.5 · HOU -4.5*

With only 39.5 points expected, touchdowns will be scarce. Role matters more than ever in this one. The Texans are laying 4.5, and the team expected to win usually gets more goal-line looks. That helps Nico Collins.

**Denzel Boston (CLE WR)**: Denzel Boston is a volume play: 1.0 red-zone touches a game for the Browns and 3 touchdowns so far, scoring in 3 of 8 games. The Texans sit in the middle of the pack against WRs (1.5 receiving touchdowns a game to WRs, 17th most), so this is a role bet more than a matchup bet.

**Nico Collins (HOU WR)**: Nico Collins is a volume play: 1.2 red-zone touches a game for the Texans and 3 touchdowns so far, scoring in 2 of 5 games. The Browns sit in the middle of the pack against WRs (1.3 receiving touchdowns a game to WRs, 23rd most), so this is a role bet more than a matchup bet.

**Verdict:** Denzel Boston anytime TD

**Long shot:** Nico Collins, small stake only

## Vikings vs. Packers Anytime TD Picks

*Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Fox · Total 41.5 · GB -3.5*

The 41.5 total is one of the lowest of the week, so I am sticking to the clearest red-zone roles. Packers by 3.5 is a small edge, but it is another reason to like Christian Watson.

**Christian Watson (GB WR)**: Christian Watson has scored in 4 of 8 games this season, and it is backed by 0.9 red-zone touches a game for the Packers. That is a rate with volume underneath it. The matchup is the hurdle. The Vikings allow just 0.6 receiving touchdowns a game to WRs, 1st fewest, so the role has to carry this one.

**Justin Jefferson (MIN WR)**: Justin Jefferson has scored in 3 of 6 games this season, and it is backed by 1.2 red-zone touches a game for the Vikings. That is a rate with volume underneath it. The Packers sit in the middle of the pack against WRs (1.4 receiving touchdowns a game to WRs, 19th most), so this is a role bet more than a matchup bet.

**Verdict:** Christian Watson anytime TD, Justin Jefferson anytime TD

## Jaguars vs. Titans Anytime TD Picks

*Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Fox · Total 46.5 · JAX -10.5*

This one is lined at 46.5, a normal scoring environment. The Jaguars are 10.5-point favorites, and a game script like that usually means a lot of red-zone snaps for Bhayshul Tuten.

**Bhayshul Tuten (JAX RB)**: A touchdown in 4 of 7 games is not luck for Bhayshul Tuten. The Jaguars feed him 3.0 red-zone touches a game, and he has 6 scores to show for it. The matchup helps: the Titans give up 1.3 rushing touchdowns a game to RBs, 4th most in the league.

**Tony Pollard (TEN RB)**: When the Titans get close, the ball goes to Tony Pollard: 2.4 touches a game inside the 10, 6 touchdowns, and a score in 3 of 8 games. The matchup is the hurdle. The Jaguars allow just 0.6 rushing touchdowns a game to RBs, 5th fewest, so the role has to carry this one.

**Verdict:** Bhayshul Tuten anytime TD, Tony Pollard anytime TD

## Dolphins vs. Colts Anytime TD Picks

*Sunday 1:00 PM ET · CBS · Total 40.5 · IND -2.5*

With only 40.5 points expected, touchdowns will be scarce. Role matters more than ever in this one. The Colts are favored by 2.5, which tilts the extra red-zone trips toward Jonathan Taylor.

**Jonathan Taylor (IND RB)**: When the Colts get close, the ball goes to Jonathan Taylor: 2.3 touches a game inside the 10, 8 touchdowns, and a score in 5 of 8 games. The Dolphins sit in the middle of the pack against RBs (0.8 rushing touchdowns a game to RBs, 23rd most), so this is a role bet more than a matchup bet.

**Ollie Gordon II (MIA RB)**: When the Dolphins get close, the ball goes to Ollie Gordon II: 1.8 touches a game inside the 10, 4 touchdowns, and a score in 4 of 6 games. The Colts sit in the middle of the pack against RBs (1.0 rushing touchdowns a game to RBs, 15th most), so this is a role bet more than a matchup bet.

**Verdict:** Jonathan Taylor anytime TD, Ollie Gordon II anytime TD

## Panthers vs. Saints Anytime TD Picks

*Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Fox · Total 48.5 · NO -1.5*

At 48.5, this total sits well above the slate average, which is exactly where I want to be hunting touchdowns. Saints by 1.5 is a small edge, but it is another reason to like Devaughn Vele.

**Chuba Hubbard (CAR RB)**: Chuba Hubbard is the Panthers' goal-line answer. He averages 1.9 touches a game inside the 10 and has scored in 5 of 7 games, with 7 touchdowns on the year. With Jonathon Brooks out, more of that work flows to him this week. The matchup helps: the Saints give up 1.4 rushing touchdowns a game to RBs, 2nd most in the league.

**Devaughn Vele (NO WR)**: The case for Devaughn Vele is opportunity. He sees 1.0 red-zone touches a game for the Saints, and that role has produced 3 touchdowns in 7 games. The Panthers sit in the middle of the pack against WRs (1.5 receiving touchdowns a game to WRs, 16th most), so this is a role bet more than a matchup bet.

**Verdict:** Chuba Hubbard anytime TD, Devaughn Vele anytime TD

## Bills vs. Jets Anytime TD Picks

*Sunday 1:00 PM ET · CBS · Total 50.5 · BUF -8.5*

Books expect points here: the 50.5 total is one of the highest on the board. The Bills are 8.5-point favorites, and a game script like that usually means a lot of red-zone snaps for Josh Allen.

**Josh Allen (BUF QB)**: When the Bills get close, the ball goes to Josh Allen: 1.6 touches a game inside the 10, 9 touchdowns, and a score in 6 of 7 games.

**Garrett Wilson (NYJ WR)**: Garrett Wilson is a volume play: 0.8 red-zone touches a game for the Jets and 3 touchdowns so far, scoring in 3 of 8 games. The matchup helps: the Bills give up 1.9 receiving touchdowns a game to WRs, 6th most in the league.

**Verdict:** Josh Allen anytime TD, Garrett Wilson anytime TD

## Seahawks vs. Raiders Anytime TD Picks

*Sunday 4:05 PM ET · CBS · Total 40.5 · SEA -6*

The 40.5 total is one of the lowest of the week, so I am sticking to the clearest red-zone roles. Seahawks by 6 is a small edge, but it is another reason to like Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

**Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA WR)**: Jaxon Smith-Njigba has scored in 6 of 8 games this season, and it is backed by 1.6 red-zone touches a game for the Seahawks. That is a rate with volume underneath it. The matchup helps: the Raiders give up 2.2 receiving touchdowns a game to WRs, 2nd most in the league.

**Brock Bowers (LV TE)**: Brock Bowers has scored in 4 of 6 games this season, and it is backed by 1.8 red-zone touches a game for the Raiders. That is a rate with volume underneath it. The matchup is the hurdle. The Seahawks allow just 1.0 receiving touchdowns a game to TEs, 5th fewest, so the role has to carry this one.

**Verdict:** Jaxon Smith-Njigba anytime TD, Brock Bowers anytime TD

## Rams vs. Cardinals Anytime TD Picks

*Sunday 4:05 PM ET · CBS · Total 40.5 · LAR -9.5*

The 40.5 total is one of the lowest of the week, so I am sticking to the clearest red-zone roles. The Rams are 9.5-point favorites, and a game script like that usually means a lot of red-zone snaps for Kyren Williams.

**Kyren Williams (LAR RB)**: Kyren Williams is the Rams' goal-line answer. He averages 2.0 touches a game inside the 10 and has scored in 6 of 8 games, with 7 touchdowns on the year. The Cardinals sit in the middle of the pack against RBs (1.1 rushing touchdowns a game to RBs, 12th most), so this is a role bet more than a matchup bet.

**Trey McBride (ARI TE)**: A touchdown in 5 of 8 games is not luck for Trey McBride. The Cardinals feed him 2.4 red-zone touches a game, and he has 5 scores to show for it. With Michael Wilson out, more of that work flows to him this week. The matchup is the hurdle. The Rams allow just 1.2 receiving touchdowns a game to TEs, 7th fewest, so the role has to carry this one.

**Verdict:** Kyren Williams anytime TD, Trey McBride anytime TD

## 49ers vs. Cowboys Anytime TD Picks

*Sunday 4:25 PM ET · Fox · Total 55.5 · SF -3.5*

Books expect points here: the 55.5 total is one of the highest on the board. The 49ers are laying 3.5, and the team expected to win usually gets more goal-line looks. That helps Christian McCaffrey.

**Christian McCaffrey (SF RB)**: Christian McCaffrey is the 49ers' goal-line answer. He averages 2.0 touches a game inside the 10 and has scored in 6 of 7 games, with 8 touchdowns on the year. The matchup helps: the Cowboys give up 1.2 rushing touchdowns a game to RBs, 7th most in the league.

**Javonte Williams (DAL RB)**: Javonte Williams is the Cowboys' goal-line answer. He averages 3.0 touches a game inside the 10 and has scored in 6 of 8 games, with 9 touchdowns on the year. With Tyler Goodson out, more of that work flows to him this week. The matchup is the hurdle. The 49ers allow just 0.5 rushing touchdowns a game to RBs, 3rd fewest, so the role has to carry this one.

**Verdict:** Christian McCaffrey anytime TD, Javonte Williams anytime TD

## Steelers vs. Bengals Anytime TD Picks

*Sunday 8:20 PM ET · NBC · Total 49.5 · CIN -3.5*

At 49.5, this total sits well above the slate average, which is exactly where I want to be hunting touchdowns. Bengals by 3.5 is a small edge, but it is another reason to like Mike Gesicki.

**Mike Gesicki (CIN TE)**: Mike Gesicki has scored in 6 of 6 games this season, and it is backed by 0.8 red-zone touches a game for the Bengals. That is a rate with volume underneath it. The matchup is the hurdle. The Steelers allow just 0.9 receiving touchdowns a game to TEs, 2nd fewest, so the role has to carry this one.

**Pat Freiermuth (PIT TE)**: A touchdown in 4 of 8 games is not luck for Pat Freiermuth. The Steelers feed him 0.9 red-zone touches a game, and he has 5 scores to show for it. The matchup is the hurdle. The Bengals allow just 1.1 receiving touchdowns a game to TEs, 6th fewest, so the role has to carry this one.

**Verdict:** Mike Gesicki anytime TD, Pat Freiermuth anytime TD

## Chargers vs. Ravens Anytime TD Picks

*Monday 8:15 PM ET · ESPN · Total 38.5 · BAL -5.5*

The 38.5 total is one of the lowest of the week, so I am sticking to the clearest red-zone roles. With the Ravens favored by 5.5, Derrick Henry should see his normal red-zone share and then some.

**Derrick Henry (BAL RB)**: When the Ravens get close, the ball goes to Derrick Henry: 3.1 touches a game inside the 10, 9 touchdowns, and a score in 6 of 8 games. The matchup helps: the Chargers give up 1.4 rushing touchdowns a game to RBs, 3rd most in the league.

**Omarion Hampton (LAC RB)**: The case for Omarion Hampton is opportunity. He sees 2.1 red-zone touches a game for the Chargers, and that role has produced 3 touchdowns in 7 games. The matchup helps: the Ravens give up 1.3 rushing touchdowns a game to RBs, 6th most in the league.

**Verdict:** Derrick Henry anytime TD, Omarion Hampton anytime TD

## Week 10 Anytime TD Board

| # | Player | Team | Pos | TD Score | Anytime TD% | RZ Touches/G | Inside-10/G |
|---|--------|------|-----|----------|-------------|--------------|-------------|
| 1 | Mike Gesicki | CIN | TE | 64 | 100% | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| 2 | Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | RB | 58 | 86% | 6.6 | 2.7 |
| 3 | Josh Allen | BUF | QB | 58 | 86% | 2.4 | 1.6 |
| 4 | Christian McCaffrey | SF | RB | 58 | 86% | 3.7 | 2.0 |
| 5 | James Cook | BUF | RB | 58 | 86% | 4.3 | 2.3 |
| 6 | Derrick Henry | BAL | RB | 54 | 75% | 5.1 | 3.1 |
| 7 | Javonte Williams | DAL | RB | 54 | 75% | 5.0 | 3.0 |
| 8 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | WR | 54 | 75% | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| 9 | Kyren Williams | LAR | RB | 54 | 75% | 3.4 | 2.0 |
| 10 | Chuba Hubbard | CAR | RB | 50 | 71% | 3.1 | 1.9 |
| 11 | Ja'Marr Chase | CIN | WR | 50 | 71% | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 12 | Jonathan Taylor | IND | RB | 46 | 63% | 3.8 | 2.3 |
| 13 | Trey McBride | ARI | TE | 46 | 63% | 2.4 | 1.4 |
| 14 | Stefon Diggs | WSH | WR | 45 | 67% | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| 15 | Brock Bowers | LV | TE | 45 | 67% | 1.8 | 0.8 |

TD Score ranks red-zone usage and touchdown rate, shrunk toward the league average so a small-sample fluke does not top the board. Only players active this week are listed.

## Related NFL research

- [Anytime Touchdown Props Guide](/blog/nfl-anytime-touchdown-props-guide): how red-zone role and usage drive TD probability.
- [Passing / Rushing / Receiving Yards Guides](/blog/nfl-rushing-receiving-yards-props-guide): reading volume and matchup for yardage props.
- [Defense vs Position Guide](/blog/nfl-defense-vs-position-guide): how to use the matchup ranks in these picks.
- [NFL Player Prop Strategy](/blog/nfl-player-prop-strategy-guide): the full research workflow.

## Before You Lock

Touchdowns are volatile, so treat this as a shortlist, not a lock sheet. Check Sunday's inactives, since a healthy backfield or a quarterback change moves red-zone work fast, and favor the higher-total games when you are choosing between two similar roles.

## Related Resources

- Parent hub: [NFL Props Hub](/blog/topic/nfl-props)
- Daily stream: [NFL Anytime TD Picks](/blog/stream/nfl-anytime-td-picks)
- Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq)
- Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog)


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