# NFL Anytime Touchdown Picks: Week 1 2026

> Who scores a touchdown in Week 1? Our model ranks every skill player by inside-the-10 role, red-zone touches, and season TD rate, with Christian McCaffrey on to

**Date:** 2026-09-09  
**Author:** HeatCheck HQ  
**Tags:** NFL, Anytime Touchdown, TD Props, Anytime TD Scorer, Weekly Picks, Player Props, Betting Strategy  
**Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/nfl-anytime-td-picks-week-1-2026  
**Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io

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**Today's best NFL anytime touchdown picks for Wednesday, September 9, 2026** are Christian McCaffrey (Score: 59, 5.9 red-zone touches per game, scores in 71% of games), Josh Jacobs (Score: 55, 3.9 red-zone touches per game, scores in 67% of games), Davante Adams (Score: 52, 2.3 red-zone touches per game, scores in 64% of games). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's red-zone usage and touchdown-rate scoring model, updated daily.

# NFL Anytime Touchdown Picks: Week 1

Every skill-position player is scored on the two things that actually drive an anytime touchdown: how often they touch the ball inside the red zone, and how reliably that has turned into scores. No odds, no guesswork, just the usage and the rate. Here are the Week 1 plays.

> [Anytime TD Dashboard](/nfl/anytime-td): the full board, updated as roles and injuries settle each week.

## Christian McCaffrey, 49ers RB

*TD Score 59 · 5.9 RZ touches/G · 2.9 inside-10/G · 17 TD this season*

Nobody on the 49ers sees the goal line like Christian McCaffrey: 2.9 touches a game inside the 10, which has already produced a touchdown in 71% of his games. That is exactly the usage you want in a TD prop.

## Josh Jacobs, Packers RB

*TD Score 55 · 3.9 RZ touches/G · 2.1 inside-10/G · 14 TD this season*

Josh Jacobs lives at the goal line for the Packers. His 2.1 touches a game inside the 10 are the reason he has scored in 67% of his games, and it is the kind of role that repeats week to week.

> **Want the full board?** All skill players ranked on the [Anytime TD Dashboard](/nfl/anytime-td), or see cross-sport plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays).

## Davante Adams, LA WR

*TD Score 52 · 2.3 RZ touches/G · 1.6 inside-10/G · 14 TD this season*

Nobody on the LA sees the goal line like Davante Adams: 1.6 touches a game inside the 10, which has already produced a touchdown in 64% of his games. That is exactly the usage you want in a TD prop.

## Javonte Williams, Cowboys RB

*TD Score 52 · 4.1 RZ touches/G · 2.1 inside-10/G · 13 TD this season*

Javonte Williams lives at the goal line for the Cowboys. His 2.1 touches a game inside the 10 are the reason he has scored in 63% of his games, and it is the kind of role that repeats week to week.

## De'Von Achane, Dolphins RB

*TD Score 52 · 2.7 RZ touches/G · 1.0 inside-10/G · 12 TD this season*

De'Von Achane has found the end zone in 63% of his games this season, and 2.7 red-zone touches a game for the Dolphins is the volume feeding it. A rate like that holds up when the usage is real.

## Zach Charbonnet, Seahawks RB

*TD Score 52 · 3.4 RZ touches/G · 2.0 inside-10/G · 12 TD this season*

Nobody on the Seahawks sees the goal line like Zach Charbonnet: 2.0 touches a game inside the 10, which has already produced a touchdown in 63% of his games. That is exactly the usage you want in a TD prop.

## Week 1 Anytime TD Board

| # | Player | Team | Pos | TD Score | Anytime TD% | RZ Touches/G | Inside-10/G |
|---|--------|------|-----|----------|-------------|--------------|-------------|
| 1 | Christian McCaffrey | SF | RB | 59 | 71% | 5.9 | 2.9 |
| 2 | Josh Jacobs | GB | RB | 55 | 67% | 3.9 | 2.1 |
| 3 | Davante Adams | LA | WR | 52 | 64% | 2.3 | 1.6 |
| 4 | Javonte Williams | DAL | RB | 52 | 63% | 4.1 | 2.1 |
| 5 | De'Von Achane | MIA | RB | 52 | 63% | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 6 | Zach Charbonnet | SEA | RB | 52 | 63% | 3.4 | 2.0 |
| 7 | Jonathan Taylor | IND | RB | 50 | 59% | 4.4 | 2.4 |
| 8 | Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | RB | 50 | 59% | 3.9 | 1.5 |
| 9 | Kyren Williams | LA | RB | 50 | 59% | 3.7 | 1.9 |
| 10 | Tee Higgins | CIN | WR | 50 | 60% | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 11 | Puka Nacua | LA | WR | 47 | 56% | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| 12 | Cam Skattebo | NYG | RB | 46 | 63% | 3.4 | 1.6 |

TD Score is a red-zone-usage and touchdown-rate ranking, shrunk toward the league average so a small-sample fluke does not top the board. Anytime TD% is the observed share of games with at least one touchdown.

## Related NFL research

- [Anytime Touchdown Props Guide](/blog/nfl-anytime-touchdown-props-guide) — how red-zone role and usage drive TD probability.
- [Passing / Rushing / Receiving Yards Guides](/blog/nfl-rushing-receiving-yards-props-guide) — reading volume and matchup for yardage props.
- [Defense vs Position Guide](/blog/nfl-defense-vs-position-guide) — how to use the matchup ranks in these picks.
- [NFL Player Prop Strategy](/blog/nfl-player-prop-strategy-guide) — the full research workflow.

## Before You Lock

Touchdowns are volatile, so treat this as a shortlist, not a lock sheet. Confirm the player is active and in his usual role, since a healthy backfield or a change at quarterback can move red-zone touches fast. Check the game total: more expected points means more trips to the red zone and more shots at a score. The board is ranked on season-long role and rate, which is the repeatable signal, so pair it with this week's news before you bet.

## Related Resources

- Parent hub: [NFL Props Hub](/blog/topic/nfl-props)
- Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq)
- Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog)


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