Today's best NBA first basket picks for Sunday, October 4, 2026 are Jamal Murray (Score: 77, Jamal Murray posts a 76.8 composite score tonight), Lauri Markkanen (Score: 74, Lauri Markkanen posts a 74.3 composite score tonight), Derrick Jones Jr. (Score: 64, Derrick Jones Jr. posts a 63.9 composite score tonight). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's ten factor composite scoring model, updated daily.
NBA First Basket Picks Today: October 4, 2026
Jamal Murray tops the board. Here's why.
First Basket dashboard: live lineup confirmations before locks.
Yesterday's picks: NBA First Basket Picks: October 3
Tonight's Slate
- UTAH at DEN
- GS at LAC
Pick 1: Jamal Murray, UTH at DEN
18.8% FB rate · 12.5% first shot · 52.3% tip win · L10 1/10 (10.0%) · DvP 3rd vs Gs
Top first basket play tonight. UTH is the 3rd worst defense in the league against Gs (26.6 PPG to Gs). Jamal hits the floor with a built in opening possession advantage and a 18.8% season first basket rate.
Worth flagging: 1 of 5 on first baskets recently. Treat this as a regression to mean play, not a heater. Bottom line: Jamal is the first basket bet tonight.
Pick 2: Lauri Markkanen, UTH at DEN
19.5% FB rate · 12.2% first shot · 56.1% tip win · L10 N/A · DvP 9th vs Fs
8 first baskets in 41 starts is a 19.5% rate, the kind of stable signal that rewards repetition.
DEN ranks 9th in points surrendered to Fs (23.9 PPG), which softens the opening possession look. Bottom line: Lauri is the first basket bet tonight.
Want the full board? See all of today's plays on Top Plays, or dive deeper on the First Basket dashboard.
Pick 3: Derrick Jones Jr., GSW at LAC
20.5% FB rate · 6.8% first shot · 45.1% tip win · L10 1/10 (10.0%) · DvP 25th vs Fs
Home court matters more for first basket props than people think. Derrick converts 27.3% at home (vs 20.5% on the season), and tonight is in his building.
Worth flagging: 1 of 5 on first baskets recently. Treat this as a regression to mean play, not a heater. Derrick is my first basket lean tonight.
Honorable Mentions
- Draymond Green (GSW): season FB rate of 13.4%.
Keep an eye on Draymond Green (13.4% FB rate), GSW's tipoff rate (46.3%) limits first possession opportunities, but the value could be there depending on the price.
Related Guides
Before You Lock
Confirm lineups on the First Basket dashboard; starters can change up to 2 hours before tip. Check sportsbook odds against each player's actual first basket rate to see where the line has value.
For the complete breakdown of our scoring methodology, tipoff analysis, and bankroll strategy, see the First Basket Betting Guide.
More from HeatCheck HQ:
- Live First Basket Dashboard: real time data for all tonight's starters
- Streak Plays Tonight: players on hot streaks vs their lines
- First Basket Betting Guide: full methodology
Picks update as lineups confirm. Bookmark heatcheckhq.io for today's full slate.
Related Resources
- Parent hub: NBA Props Hub
- Daily stream: NBA First Basket Picks
- Author: HeatCheck HQ
- Browse all posts: Sports Betting Insights & Guides