# NBA First Basket Picks Today: October 31, 2026 (Every Game)

> NBA first basket picks for every game on tonight's 7 game slate. Opening tip records, shot volume, and first shot rates, with Jarrett Allen on top.

**Date:** 2026-10-31  
**Author:** HeatCheck HQ  
**Tags:** First Basket, NBA, Daily Picks, Player Props, Betting Strategy  
**Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/nba-first-basket-picks-oct-31-2026  
**Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io

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**Today's best NBA first basket picks for Saturday, October 31, 2026** are Jarrett Allen (Score: 88, 7.8 shots per game, first shot in 40.0% of starts), Zach Edey (Score: 71, 5.3 shots per game, first shot in 25.0% of starts), Victor Wembanyama (Score: 63, 19.6 shots per game, first shot in 20.0% of starts). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's ten factor composite scoring model, updated daily.

# NBA First Basket Picks Today: October 31, 2026

There are 7 NBA games tonight, and I have a first basket pick for every one of them. For each game I start with the opening tip, then look for the starter who is most likely to get the first shot and has the volume to make it count. It is early in the season, so the first basket rates are small samples. I am weighting shot volume and role more heavily until the numbers settle.

> [First Basket dashboard](/nba/first-basket): live lineup confirmations before locks.

> **Yesterday's picks:** [NBA First Basket Picks: October 30](/blog/nba-first-basket-picks-oct-30-2026)

## Tonight's First Basket Picks at a Glance

| Game | Tip (ET) | Pick | First Shot % | First Baskets | PPG / FGA |
|------|----------|------|--------------|---------------|-----------|
| POR @ UTAH | 3:00 PM | Donovan Clingan (POR) | 25.0% | 1/4 | 9.8 / 6.8 |
| PHI @ CHA | 6:00 PM | Tyrese Maxey (PHI) | 33.3% | 1/6 | 28.2 / 20.8 |
| ATL @ NO | 7:00 PM | Trey Murphy III (NOR) | 0.0% | 1/5 | 14.2 / 11.2 |
| SAC @ MEM | 8:00 PM | Zach Edey (MEM) | 25.0% | 2/4 | 7.8 / 5.3 |
| CLE @ MIL | 8:00 PM | Jarrett Allen (CLE) | 40.0% | 2/5 | 13.4 / 7.8 |
| MIN @ SA | 8:00 PM | Victor Wembanyama (SAS) | 20.0% | 1/5 | 25 / 19.6 |
| OKC @ HOU | 8:30 PM | Fred VanVleet (HOU) | 40.0% | 1/5 | 13 / 11.2 |

## Trail Blazers vs. Jazz First Basket Pick

*3:00 PM ET · NBA League Pass · Total 232.5*

The Trail Blazers are 3 for 4 on opening tips this season, and the Jazz are 1 for 5. That gives the Trail Blazers the better shot at the first possession, which is where I want my pick.

The volume is there for Donovan: 6.8 field goal attempts and 9.8 points a game, with the first shot of the night in 1 of 4 starts. It is early, 1 first basket in 4 starts, so size this one small.

The chalk in this game is Ace Bailey at 14.2 points a night. I would rather take Donovan, since he is on the side more likely to win the tip.

**Pick:** Donovan Clingan (POR) to score the first basket

**Also consider:** Ace Bailey (UTH)

## 76ers vs. Hornets First Basket Pick

*6:00 PM ET · NBA TV · Total 213.5*

The 76ers are 4 for 6 on opening tips this season, and the Hornets are 1 for 6. The tip edge leans 76ers, and the first possession is half the battle in this market.

Tyrese is averaging 20.8 shots and 28.2 points a night, and the PHI have run their first look through him in 2 of 6 starts. He has scored the first basket in 1 of 6 starts so far. That is an early sample, so I am leaning on the shot volume more than the rate.

**Pick:** Tyrese Maxey (PHI) to score the first basket

**Also consider:** Moussa Diabate (CHA)

## Hawks vs. Pelicans First Basket Pick

*7:00 PM ET · NBA League Pass · Total 240.5*

The Hawks are 1 for 6 on opening tips this season, and the Pelicans are 0 for 5.

The volume is there for Trey: 11.2 field goal attempts and 14.2 points a game, with the first shot of the night in 0 of 5 starts. He has scored the first basket in 1 of 5 starts so far. That is an early sample, so treat this as a lean, not a lock.

**Pick:** Trey Murphy III (NOR) to score the first basket

**Also consider:** Dyson Daniels (ATL)

> **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [First Basket dashboard](/nba/first-basket).

## Kings vs. Grizzlies First Basket Pick

*8:00 PM ET · NBA League Pass · Total 230.5*

The Kings are 3 for 5 on opening tips this season, and the Grizzlies are 3 for 5.

The volume is there for Zach: 5.3 field goal attempts and 7.8 points a game, with the first shot of the night in 1 of 4 starts. It is early, 2 first baskets in 4 starts, so size this one small. The matchup helps too: the SAC rank 2nd in points allowed to Cs (27.5 a game).

The chalk in this game is Zach LaVine at 26 points a night. I would rather take Zach, since his overall profile grades out better in the model, and he will not carry the shortest price.

**Pick:** Zach Edey (MEM) to score the first basket

**Also consider:** Zach LaVine (SAC)

## Cavaliers vs. Bucks First Basket Pick

*8:00 PM ET · NBA League Pass · Total 235.5 · Top play of the night*

The Cavaliers are 3 for 5 on opening tips this season, and the Bucks are 2 for 5.

Jarrett Allen is putting up 13.4 points on 7.8 shots a game, and he has taken the opening shot in 2 of 5 starts. He has scored the first basket in 2 of 5 starts so far. That is an early sample, so treat this as a lean, not a lock. The matchup helps too: the MIL rank 7th in points allowed to Cs (23.3 a game).

Jaime Jaquez Jr. (17.8 PPG) is the name most people will reach for here, and he will likely be priced like it. I am going with Jarrett because he gets the first look more often (2 of 5 starts vs 1 of 5 for Jaime).

**Pick:** Jarrett Allen (CLE) to score the first basket

**Also consider:** Jaime Jaquez Jr. (MIL)

## Timberwolves vs. Spurs First Basket Pick

*8:00 PM ET · NBA League Pass · Total 225.5*

The Timberwolves are 2 for 6 on opening tips this season, and the Spurs are 5 for 5. That gives the Spurs the better shot at the first possession, which is where I want my pick.

Victor Wembanyama is putting up 25 points on 19.6 shots a game, and he has taken the opening shot in 1 of 5 starts. It is early, 1 first basket in 5 starts, so the volume is doing more of the work here than the hit rate.

**Pick:** Victor Wembanyama (SAS) to score the first basket

**Also consider:** Jaden McDaniels (MIN)

## Thunder vs. Rockets First Basket Pick

*8:30 PM ET · NBA TV · Total 219.5*

The Thunder are 3 for 5 on opening tips this season, and the Rockets are 4 for 6.

Fred VanVleet is putting up 13 points on 11.2 shots a game, and he has taken the opening shot in 2 of 5 starts. He has scored the first basket in 1 of 5 starts so far. That is an early sample, so treat this as a lean, not a lock.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (26 PPG) is the name most people will reach for here, and he will likely be priced like it. I am going with Fred because he gets the first look more often (2 of 5 starts vs 0 of 5 for Shai).

**Pick:** Fred VanVleet (HOU) to score the first basket

**Also consider:** Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC)

## Related Guides

- [First Basket Betting Guide](/blog/nba-first-basket-betting-guide)
- [NBA DVP Matchups Explained](/blog/nba-dvp-matchups-explained)
- [NBA Dashboard Quickstart](/blog/nba-dashboard-quickstart-for-beginners)

## Before You Lock

Confirm lineups on the [First Basket dashboard](/nba/first-basket); starters can change up to 2 hours before tip. A late scratch changes who takes the first shot, so recheck any pick whose team is listed as questionable.

For the complete breakdown of our scoring methodology, tipoff analysis, and bankroll strategy, see the [First Basket Betting Guide](/blog/nba-first-basket-betting-guide).

**More from HeatCheck HQ:**
- [Live First Basket Dashboard](/nba/first-basket): real time data for all tonight's starters
- [Streak Plays Tonight](/nba/streaks): players on hot streaks vs their lines
- [First Basket Betting Guide](/blog/nba-first-basket-betting-guide): full methodology

*Picks update as lineups confirm. Bookmark [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io) for today's full slate.*

## Related Resources

- Parent hub: [NBA Props Hub](/blog/topic/nba-props)
- Daily stream: [NBA First Basket Picks](/blog/stream/nba-first-basket-picks)
- Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq)
- Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog)


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