# NBA First Basket Picks Today: October 29, 2026 (Every Game)

> Who scores first tonight? A first basket pick for each of the 3 NBA games, built on tip-off wins, shots per game, and first shot share. Updated daily.

**Date:** 2026-10-29  
**Author:** HeatCheck HQ  
**Tags:** First Basket, NBA, Daily Picks, Player Props, Betting Strategy  
**Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/nba-first-basket-picks-oct-29-2026  
**Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io

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**Today's best NBA first basket picks for Thursday, October 29, 2026** are Jarrett Allen (Score: 94, 7.8 shots per game, first shot in 50.0% of starts), Donovan Clingan (Score: 58, 6 shots per game, first shot in 33.3% of starts), Ty Jerome (Score: 51, 19.8 shots per game, first shot in 25.0% of starts). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's ten factor composite scoring model, updated daily.

# NBA First Basket Picks Today: October 29, 2026

There are 3 NBA games tonight, and I have a first basket pick for every one of them. For each game I start with the opening tip, then look for the starter who is most likely to get the first shot and has the volume to make it count. It is early in the season, so the first basket rates are small samples. I am weighting shot volume and role more heavily until the numbers settle.

> [First Basket dashboard](/nba/first-basket): live lineup confirmations before locks.

> **Yesterday's picks:** [NBA First Basket Picks: October 28](/blog/nba-first-basket-picks-oct-28-2026)

## Tonight's First Basket Picks at a Glance

| Game | Tip (ET) | Pick | First Shot % | First Baskets | PPG / FGA |
|------|----------|------|--------------|---------------|-----------|
| CLE @ ATL | 8:00 PM | Jarrett Allen (CLE) | 50.0% | 2/4 | 13.3 / 7.8 |
| SAC @ NO | 8:00 PM | Zach LaVine (SAC) | 25.0% | 1/4 | 27.3 / 17.3 |
| MEM @ POR | 10:00 PM | Donovan Clingan (POR) | 33.3% | 1/3 | 9.3 / 6 |

## Cavaliers vs. Hawks First Basket Pick

*8:00 PM ET · NBA TV · Total 237.5 · Top play of the night*

The Cavaliers are 2 for 4 on opening tips this season, and the Hawks are 1 for 5. That gives the Cavaliers the better shot at the first possession, which is where I want my pick.

The volume is there for Jarrett: 7.8 field goal attempts and 13.3 points a game, with the first shot of the night in 2 of 4 starts. It is early, 2 first baskets in 4 starts, so size this one small. The matchup helps too: the ATL rank 3rd in points allowed to Cs (25.2 a game).

**Pick:** Jarrett Allen (CLE) to score the first basket

**Also consider:** Dyson Daniels (ATL)

## Kings vs. Pelicans First Basket Pick

*8:00 PM ET · NBA League Pass · Total 235.5*

The Kings are 2 for 4 on opening tips this season, and the Pelicans are 0 for 4. The tip edge leans Kings, and the first possession is half the battle in this market.

Zach LaVine is putting up 27.3 points on 17.3 shots a game, and he has taken the opening shot in 1 of 4 starts. He has scored the first basket in 1 of 4 starts so far. That is an early sample, so I am leaning on the shot volume more than the rate. The matchup helps too: the NOR rank 5th in points allowed to Gs (31.0 a game).

**Pick:** Zach LaVine (SAC) to score the first basket

**Also consider:** Zion Williamson (NOR)

## Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers First Basket Pick

*10:00 PM ET · NBA League Pass · Total 232.5*

The Grizzlies are 3 for 4 on opening tips this season, and the Trail Blazers are 2 for 3.

Donovan is averaging 6 shots and 9.3 points a night, and the POR have run their first look through him in 1 of 3 starts. He has scored the first basket in 1 of 3 starts so far. That is an early sample, so treat this as a lean, not a lock.

Ty Jerome (29.8 PPG) is the name most people will reach for here, and he will likely be priced like it. I am going with Donovan because he gets the first look more often (1 of 3 starts vs 1 of 4 for Ty).

**Pick:** Donovan Clingan (POR) to score the first basket

**Also consider:** Ty Jerome (MEM)

> **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [First Basket dashboard](/nba/first-basket).

## Related Guides

- [First Basket Betting Guide](/blog/nba-first-basket-betting-guide)
- [NBA DVP Matchups Explained](/blog/nba-dvp-matchups-explained)
- [NBA Dashboard Quickstart](/blog/nba-dashboard-quickstart-for-beginners)

## Before You Lock

Confirm lineups on the [First Basket dashboard](/nba/first-basket); starters can change up to 2 hours before tip. A late scratch changes who takes the first shot, so recheck any pick whose team is listed as questionable.

For the complete breakdown of our scoring methodology, tipoff analysis, and bankroll strategy, see the [First Basket Betting Guide](/blog/nba-first-basket-betting-guide).

**More from HeatCheck HQ:**
- [Live First Basket Dashboard](/nba/first-basket): real time data for all tonight's starters
- [Streak Plays Tonight](/nba/streaks): players on hot streaks vs their lines
- [First Basket Betting Guide](/blog/nba-first-basket-betting-guide): full methodology

*Picks update as lineups confirm. Bookmark [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io) for today's full slate.*

## Related Resources

- Parent hub: [NBA Props Hub](/blog/topic/nba-props)
- Daily stream: [NBA First Basket Picks](/blog/stream/nba-first-basket-picks)
- Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq)
- Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog)


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*Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*