# NBA First Basket Picks Today: October 28, 2026 (Every Game) > NBA first basket picks for every game on tonight's 12 game slate. Opening tip records, shot volume, and first shot rates, with Jarrett Allen on top. **Date:** 2026-10-28 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** First Basket, NBA, Daily Picks, Player Props, Betting Strategy **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/nba-first-basket-picks-oct-28-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best NBA first basket picks for Wednesday, October 28, 2026** are Jarrett Allen (Score: 86, 8.3 shots per game, first shot in 66.7% of starts), RJ Barrett (Score: 73, 17 shots per game, first shot in 33.3% of starts), John Collins (Score: 66, 10.3 shots per game, first shot in 25.0% of starts). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's ten factor composite scoring model, updated daily. # NBA First Basket Picks Today: October 28, 2026 There are 12 NBA games tonight, and I have a first basket pick for every one of them. For each game I start with the opening tip, then look for the starter who is most likely to get the first shot and has the volume to make it count. It is early in the season, so the first basket rates are small samples. I am weighting shot volume and role more heavily until the numbers settle. > [First Basket dashboard](/nba/first-basket): live lineup confirmations before locks. > **Yesterday's picks:** [NBA First Basket Picks: October 27](/blog/nba-first-basket-picks-oct-27-2026) ## Tonight's First Basket Picks at a Glance | Game | Tip (ET) | Pick | First Shot % | First Baskets | PPG / FGA | |------|----------|------|--------------|---------------|-----------| | MIA @ ATL | 7:00 PM | Bam Adebayo (MIA) | 25.0% | 1/4 | 11.8 / 11.3 | | WSH @ CLE | 7:00 PM | Jarrett Allen (CLE) | 66.7% | 2/3 | 15 / 8.3 | | CHA @ DET | 7:00 PM | John Collins (DET) | 25.0% | 3/4 | 11.8 / 10.3 | | PHI @ IND | 7:00 PM | Tyrese Maxey (PHI) | 50.0% | 1/4 | 28.8 / 22 | | ORL @ TOR | 7:30 PM | RJ Barrett (TOR) | 33.3% | 2/3 | 21 / 17 | | NY @ CHI | 8:00 PM | Jalen Smith (CHI) | 25.0% | 1/4 | 12.5 / 9.8 | | HOU @ MIL | 8:00 PM | Jaime Jaquez Jr. (MIL) | 25.0% | 1/4 | 17.5 / 12.3 | | GS @ MIN | 8:00 PM | Rudy Gobert (MIN) | 0.0% | 1/4 | 8 / 5.8 | | DEN @ NO | 8:00 PM | Nikola Jokic (DEN) | 33.3% | 1/3 | 22.3 / 20 | | SA @ UTAH | 9:00 PM | Victor Wembanyama (SAS) | 25.0% | 1/4 | 22.3 / 18.3 | | OKC @ DAL | 9:30 PM | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC) | 0.0% | 1/4 | 27.3 / 22.5 | | LAL @ LAC | 10:30 PM | Luka Doncic (LAL) | 50.0% | 1/4 | 36 / 22.8 | ## Heat vs. Hawks First Basket Pick *7:00 PM ET · NBA League Pass · Total 241.5* The Heat are 4 for 4 on opening tips this season, and the Hawks are 1 for 4. That gives the Heat the better shot at the first possession, which is where I want my pick. Bam Adebayo is putting up 11.8 points on 11.3 shots a game, and he has taken the opening shot in 1 of 4 starts. It is early, 1 first basket in 4 starts, so size this one small. The matchup helps too: the ATL rank 7th in points allowed to Cs (23.4 a game). **Pick:** Bam Adebayo (MIA) to score the first basket **Also consider:** Dyson Daniels (ATL) ## Wizards vs. Cavaliers First Basket Pick *7:00 PM ET · MNMT · Total 239.5 · Top play of the night* The Wizards are 3 for 4 on opening tips this season, and the Cavaliers are 2 for 3. Jarrett Allen is putting up 15 points on 8.3 shots a game, and he has taken the opening shot in 2 of 3 starts. He has scored the first basket in 2 of 3 starts so far. That is an early sample, so treat this as a lean, not a lock. Trae Young (22.3 PPG) is the name most people will reach for here, and he will likely be priced like it. I am going with Jarrett because he gets the first look more often (2 of 3 starts vs 1 of 4 for Trae). **Pick:** Jarrett Allen (CLE) to score the first basket **Also consider:** Trae Young (WAS) ## Hornets vs. Pistons First Basket Pick *7:00 PM ET · NBA League Pass · Total 212.5* The Hornets are 0 for 4 on opening tips this season, and the Pistons are 0 for 4. The volume is there for John: 10.3 field goal attempts and 11.8 points a game, with the first shot of the night in 1 of 4 starts. It is early, 3 first baskets in 4 starts, so size this one small. **Pick:** John Collins (DET) to score the first basket **Also consider:** Moussa Diabate (CHA) > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [First Basket dashboard](/nba/first-basket). ## 76ers vs. Pacers First Basket Pick *7:00 PM ET · ESPN · Total 234.5* The 76ers are 3 for 4 on opening tips this season, and the Pacers are 3 for 4. Tyrese is averaging 22 shots and 28.8 points a night, and the PHI have run their first look through him in 2 of 4 starts. He has scored the first basket in 1 of 4 starts so far. That is an early sample, so I am leaning on the shot volume more than the rate. **Pick:** Tyrese Maxey (PHI) to score the first basket **Also consider:** Pascal Siakam (IND) ## Magic vs. Raptors First Basket Pick *7:30 PM ET · NBA League Pass · Total 223.5* The Magic are 3 for 3 on opening tips this season, and the Raptors are 2 for 3. The tip leans Magic, so my pick has to beat the possession math, and the case below is why I think he can. RJ Barrett is putting up 21 points on 17 shots a game, and he has taken the opening shot in 1 of 3 starts. He has scored the first basket in 2 of 3 starts so far. That is an early sample, so I am leaning on the shot volume more than the rate. The matchup helps too: the ORL rank 7th in points allowed to Fs (24.4 a game). **Pick:** RJ Barrett (TOR) to score the first basket **Also consider:** Franz Wagner (ORL) ## Knicks vs. Bulls First Basket Pick *8:00 PM ET · NBA League Pass · Total 232.5* The Knicks are 1 for 4 on opening tips this season, and the Bulls are 1 for 4. Jalen is averaging 9.8 shots and 12.5 points a night, and the CHI have run their first look through him in 1 of 4 starts. It is early, 1 first basket in 4 starts, so size this one small. The chalk in this game is Karl-Anthony Towns at 22.5 points a night. I would rather take Jalen, since his overall profile grades out better in the model, and he will not carry the shortest price. **Pick:** Jalen Smith (CHI) to score the first basket **Also consider:** Karl-Anthony Towns (NYK) ## Rockets vs. Bucks First Basket Pick *8:00 PM ET · NBA League Pass · Total 226.5* The Rockets are 3 for 4 on opening tips this season, and the Bucks are 2 for 4. The tip leans Rockets, so my pick has to beat the possession math, and the case below is why I think he can. Jaime is averaging 12.3 shots and 17.5 points a night, and the MIL have run their first look through him in 1 of 4 starts. He has scored the first basket in 1 of 4 starts so far. That is an early sample, so I am leaning on the shot volume more than the rate. **Pick:** Jaime Jaquez Jr. (MIL) to score the first basket **Also consider:** Amen Thompson (HOU) ## Warriors vs. Timberwolves First Basket Pick *8:00 PM ET · NBA League Pass · Total 227.5* The Warriors are 0 for 4 on opening tips this season, and the Timberwolves are 0 for 4. Rudy is averaging 5.8 shots and 8 points a night, and the MIN have run their first look through him in 0 of 4 starts. It is early, 1 first basket in 4 starts, so size this one small. The chalk in this game is Yaxel Lendeborg at 21.8 points a night. I would rather take Rudy, since his overall profile grades out better in the model, and he will not carry the shortest price. **Pick:** Rudy Gobert (MIN) to score the first basket **Also consider:** Yaxel Lendeborg (GSW) ## Nuggets vs. Pelicans First Basket Pick *8:00 PM ET · NBA League Pass · Total 241.5* The Nuggets are 2 for 3 on opening tips this season, and the Pelicans are 0 for 3. The tip edge leans Nuggets, and the first possession is half the battle in this market. The volume is there for Nikola: 20 field goal attempts and 22.3 points a game, with the first shot of the night in 1 of 3 starts. He has scored the first basket in 1 of 3 starts so far. That is an early sample, so I am leaning on the shot volume more than the rate. The matchup helps too: the NOR rank 1st in points allowed to Cs (30.7 a game). **Pick:** Nikola Jokic (DEN) to score the first basket **Also consider:** Zion Williamson (NOR) ## Spurs vs. Jazz First Basket Pick *9:00 PM ET · NBA League Pass · Total 233.5* The Spurs are 4 for 4 on opening tips this season, and the Jazz are 1 for 4. That gives the Spurs the better shot at the first possession, which is where I want my pick. Victor Wembanyama is putting up 22.3 points on 18.3 shots a game, and he has taken the opening shot in 1 of 4 starts. It is early, 1 first basket in 4 starts, so the volume is doing more of the work here than the hit rate. **Pick:** Victor Wembanyama (SAS) to score the first basket **Also consider:** Lauri Markkanen (UTH) ## Thunder vs. Mavericks First Basket Pick *9:30 PM ET · ESPN · Total 227.5* The Thunder are 2 for 4 on opening tips this season, and the Mavericks are 0 for 4. That gives the Thunder the better shot at the first possession, which is where I want my pick. The volume is there for Shai: 22.5 field goal attempts and 27.3 points a game, with the first shot of the night in 0 of 4 starts. It is early, 1 first basket in 4 starts, so the volume is doing more of the work here than the hit rate. **Pick:** Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC) to score the first basket **Also consider:** Daniel Gafford (DAL) ## Lakers vs. Clippers First Basket Pick *10:30 PM ET · NBA League Pass · Total 229.5* The Lakers are 4 for 4 on opening tips this season, and the Clippers are 0 for 3. That gives the Lakers the better shot at the first possession, which is where I want my pick. Luka Doncic is putting up 36 points on 22.8 shots a game, and he has taken the opening shot in 2 of 4 starts. It is early, 1 first basket in 4 starts, so the volume is doing more of the work here than the hit rate. The matchup helps too: the LAC rank 8th in points allowed to Gs (28.7 a game). **Pick:** Luka Doncic (LAL) to score the first basket **Also consider:** Darius Garland (LAC) ## Related Guides - [First Basket Betting Guide](/blog/nba-first-basket-betting-guide) - [NBA DVP Matchups Explained](/blog/nba-dvp-matchups-explained) - [NBA Dashboard Quickstart](/blog/nba-dashboard-quickstart-for-beginners) ## Before You Lock Confirm lineups on the [First Basket dashboard](/nba/first-basket); starters can change up to 2 hours before tip. A late scratch changes who takes the first shot, so recheck any pick whose team is listed as questionable. For the complete breakdown of our scoring methodology, tipoff analysis, and bankroll strategy, see the [First Basket Betting Guide](/blog/nba-first-basket-betting-guide). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Live First Basket Dashboard](/nba/first-basket): real time data for all tonight's starters - [Streak Plays Tonight](/nba/streaks): players on hot streaks vs their lines - [First Basket Betting Guide](/blog/nba-first-basket-betting-guide): full methodology *Picks update as lineups confirm. Bookmark [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io) for today's full slate.* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [NBA Props Hub](/blog/topic/nba-props) - Daily stream: [NBA First Basket Picks](/blog/stream/nba-first-basket-picks) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*