# NBA First Basket Picks Today: October 27, 2026 (Every Game) > First basket picks for October 27, 2026, game by game. Tip-off records, shot volume, and first shot rates across 4 games. John Collins leads. **Date:** 2026-10-27 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** First Basket, NBA, Daily Picks, Player Props, Betting Strategy **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/nba-first-basket-picks-oct-27-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best NBA first basket picks for Tuesday, October 27, 2026** are John Collins (Score: 75, 12.3 shots per game, first shot in 33.3% of starts), Walker Kessler (Score: 61, 9.3 shots per game, first shot in 66.7% of starts), Donovan Clingan (Score: 60, 7 shots per game, first shot in 50.0% of starts). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's ten factor composite scoring model, updated daily. # NBA First Basket Picks Today: October 27, 2026 There are 4 NBA games tonight, and I have a first basket pick for every one of them. For each game I start with the opening tip, then look for the starter who is most likely to get the first shot and has the volume to make it count. It is early in the season, so the first basket rates are small samples. I am weighting shot volume and role more heavily until the numbers settle. > [First Basket dashboard](/nba/first-basket): live lineup confirmations before locks. > **Yesterday's picks:** [NBA First Basket Picks: October 26](/blog/nba-first-basket-picks-oct-26-2026) ## Tonight's First Basket Picks at a Glance | Game | Tip (ET) | Pick | First Shot % | First Baskets | PPG / FGA | |------|----------|------|--------------|---------------|-----------| | BKN @ BOS | 7:30 PM | Jayson Tatum (BOS) | 0.0% | 1/3 | 24 / 22 | | DET @ NY | 8:00 PM | John Collins (DET) | 33.3% | 3/3 | 15 / 12.3 | | SAC @ SA | 8:00 PM | Devin Vassell (SAS) | 33.3% | 1/3 | 9.3 / 8.7 | | POR @ LAL | 11:00 PM | Walker Kessler (LAL) | 66.7% | 1/3 | 16.7 / 9.3 | ## Nets vs. Celtics First Basket Pick *7:30 PM ET · NBA League Pass · Total 222.5* The Nets are 2 for 3 on opening tips this season, and the Celtics are 3 for 3. The tip edge leans Celtics, and the first possession is half the battle in this market. Jayson is averaging 22 shots and 24 points a night, and the BOS have run their first look through him in 0 of 3 starts. He has scored the first basket in 1 of 3 starts so far. That is an early sample, so I am leaning on the shot volume more than the rate. **Pick:** Jayson Tatum (BOS) to score the first basket **Also consider:** Julius Randle (BKN) ## Pistons vs. Knicks First Basket Pick *8:00 PM ET · NBC · Total 219.5 · Top play of the night* The Pistons are 0 for 3 on opening tips this season, and the Knicks are 0 for 3. John is averaging 12.3 shots and 15 points a night, and the DET have run their first look through him in 1 of 3 starts. He has scored the first basket in 3 of 3 starts so far. That is an early sample, so I am leaning on the shot volume more than the rate. The matchup helps too: the NYK rank 5th in points allowed to Fs (25.9 a game). Jalen Brunson (22.7 PPG) is the name most people will reach for here, and he will likely be priced like it. I am going with John because he gets the first look more often (1 of 3 starts vs 0 of 3 for Jalen). **Pick:** John Collins (DET) to score the first basket **Also consider:** Jalen Brunson (NYK) ## Kings vs. Spurs First Basket Pick *8:00 PM ET · NBA League Pass · Total 232.5* The Kings are 2 for 3 on opening tips this season, and the Spurs are 3 for 3. That gives the Spurs the better shot at the first possession, which is where I want my pick. Devin Vassell is putting up 9.3 points on 8.7 shots a game, and he has taken the opening shot in 1 of 3 starts. It is early, 1 first basket in 3 starts, so size this one small. The matchup helps too: the SAC rank 6th in points allowed to Gs (28.8 a game). The chalk in this game is Zach LaVine at 29 points a night. I would rather take Devin, since he is on the side more likely to win the tip. **Pick:** Devin Vassell (SAS) to score the first basket **Also consider:** Zach LaVine (SAC) > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [First Basket dashboard](/nba/first-basket). ## Trail Blazers vs. Lakers First Basket Pick *11:00 PM ET · Peacock · Total 233.5* The Trail Blazers are 2 for 2 on opening tips this season, and the Lakers are 3 for 3. Walker is averaging 9.3 shots and 16.7 points a night, and the LAL have run their first look through him in 2 of 3 starts. He has scored the first basket in 1 of 3 starts so far. That is an early sample, so treat this as a lean, not a lock. The matchup helps too: the POR rank 5th in points allowed to Cs (25.5 a game). **Pick:** Walker Kessler (LAL) to score the first basket **Also consider:** Donovan Clingan (POR) ## Related Guides - [First Basket Betting Guide](/blog/nba-first-basket-betting-guide) - [NBA DVP Matchups Explained](/blog/nba-dvp-matchups-explained) - [NBA Dashboard Quickstart](/blog/nba-dashboard-quickstart-for-beginners) ## Before You Lock Confirm lineups on the [First Basket dashboard](/nba/first-basket); starters can change up to 2 hours before tip. A late scratch changes who takes the first shot, so recheck any pick whose team is listed as questionable. For the complete breakdown of our scoring methodology, tipoff analysis, and bankroll strategy, see the [First Basket Betting Guide](/blog/nba-first-basket-betting-guide). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Live First Basket Dashboard](/nba/first-basket): real time data for all tonight's starters - [Streak Plays Tonight](/nba/streaks): players on hot streaks vs their lines - [First Basket Betting Guide](/blog/nba-first-basket-betting-guide): full methodology *Picks update as lineups confirm. Bookmark [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io) for today's full slate.* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [NBA Props Hub](/blog/topic/nba-props) - Daily stream: [NBA First Basket Picks](/blog/stream/nba-first-basket-picks) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*