# NBA First Basket Picks Today: October 26, 2026 (Every Game)

> Who scores first tonight? A first basket pick for each of the 9 NBA games, built on tip-off wins, shots per game, and first shot share. Updated daily.

**Date:** 2026-10-26  
**Author:** HeatCheck HQ  
**Tags:** First Basket, NBA, Daily Picks, Player Props, Betting Strategy  
**Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/nba-first-basket-picks-oct-26-2026  
**Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io

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**Today's best NBA first basket picks for Monday, October 26, 2026** are Jarrett Allen (Score: 80, 9 shots per game, first shot in 50.0% of starts), Jayson Tatum (Score: 72, 24.5 shots per game, first shot in 0.0% of starts), Giannis Antetokounmpo (Score: 66, 18.7 shots per game, first shot in 33.3% of starts). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's ten factor composite scoring model, updated daily.

# NBA First Basket Picks Today: October 26, 2026

There are 9 NBA games tonight, and I have a first basket pick for every one of them. For each game I start with the opening tip, then look for the starter who is most likely to get the first shot and has the volume to make it count. It is early in the season, so the first basket rates are small samples. I am weighting shot volume and role more heavily until the numbers settle.

> [First Basket dashboard](/nba/first-basket): live lineup confirmations before locks.

## Tonight's First Basket Picks at a Glance

| Game | Tip (ET) | Pick | First Shot % | First Baskets | PPG / FGA |
|------|----------|------|--------------|---------------|-----------|
| WSH @ CHA | 7:00 PM | Trae Young (WAS) | 33.3% | 1/3 | 22.3 / 13.7 |
| MIN @ CLE | 7:00 PM | Jarrett Allen (CLE) | 50.0% | 1/2 | 17.5 / 9 |
| CHI @ BOS | 7:30 PM | Jayson Tatum (BOS) | 0.0% | 1/2 | 24.5 / 24.5 |
| DAL @ MIA | 7:30 PM | Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIA) | 33.3% | 1/3 | 28.3 / 18.7 |
| IND @ MIL | 8:00 PM | Jaime Jaquez Jr. (MIL) | 33.3% | 1/3 | 20.7 / 12 |
| PHX @ OKC | 8:00 PM | Khaman Maluach (PHO) | 0.0% | 0/2 | 5.5 / 2.5 |
| ATL @ HOU | 8:30 PM | Jalen Johnson (ATL) | 33.3% | 1/3 | 21.7 / 18 |
| MEM @ UTAH | 9:00 PM | Ty Jerome (MEM) | 33.3% | 1/3 | 34.7 / 21.3 |
| GS @ DEN | 10:00 PM | Aaron Gordon (DEN) | 0.0% | 1/2 | 13.5 / 9 |

## Wizards vs. Hornets First Basket Pick

*7:00 PM ET · MNMT · Total 227.5*

The Wizards are 2 for 3 on opening tips this season, and the Hornets are 0 for 3. The tip edge leans Wizards, and the first possession is half the battle in this market.

Trae Young is putting up 22.3 points on 13.7 shots a game, and he has taken the opening shot in 1 of 3 starts. He has scored the first basket in 1 of 3 starts so far. That is an early sample, so I am leaning on the shot volume more than the rate.

**Pick:** Trae Young (WAS) to score the first basket

**Also consider:** Moussa Diabate (CHA)

## Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers First Basket Pick

*7:00 PM ET · NBA League Pass · Total 232.5 · Top play of the night*

The Timberwolves are 0 for 3 on opening tips this season, and the Cavaliers are 1 for 2. The tip edge leans Cavaliers, and the first possession is half the battle in this market.

The volume is there for Jarrett: 9 field goal attempts and 17.5 points a game, with the first shot of the night in 1 of 2 starts. He has scored the first basket in 1 of 2 starts so far. That is an early sample, so treat this as a lean, not a lock.

**Pick:** Jarrett Allen (CLE) to score the first basket

**Also consider:** Jaden McDaniels (MIN)

## Bulls vs. Celtics First Basket Pick

*7:30 PM ET · NBA League Pass · Total 233.5*

The Bulls are 1 for 3 on opening tips this season, and the Celtics are 2 for 2. That gives the Celtics the better shot at the first possession, which is where I want my pick.

Jayson Tatum is putting up 24.5 points on 24.5 shots a game, and he has taken the opening shot in 0 of 2 starts. It is early, 1 first basket in 2 starts, so the volume is doing more of the work here than the hit rate. The matchup helps too: the CHI rank 7th in points allowed to Fs (25.5 a game).

**Pick:** Jayson Tatum (BOS) to score the first basket

**Also consider:** Jalen Smith (CHI)

> **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [First Basket dashboard](/nba/first-basket).

## Mavericks vs. Heat First Basket Pick

*7:30 PM ET · NBA TV · Total 240.5*

The Mavericks are 0 for 3 on opening tips this season, and the Heat are 3 for 3. That gives the Heat the better shot at the first possession, which is where I want my pick.

Giannis Antetokounmpo is putting up 28.3 points on 18.7 shots a game, and he has taken the opening shot in 1 of 3 starts. It is early, 1 first basket in 3 starts, so the volume is doing more of the work here than the hit rate.

**Pick:** Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIA) to score the first basket

**Also consider:** Daniel Gafford (DAL)

## Pacers vs. Bucks First Basket Pick

*8:00 PM ET · NBA League Pass · Total 238.5*

The Pacers are 3 for 3 on opening tips this season, and the Bucks are 1 for 3. The tip leans Pacers, so my pick has to beat the possession math, and the case below is why I think he can.

Jaime Jaquez Jr. is putting up 20.7 points on 12 shots a game, and he has taken the opening shot in 1 of 3 starts. He has scored the first basket in 1 of 3 starts so far. That is an early sample, so I am leaning on the shot volume more than the rate.

Pascal Siakam (24.7 PPG) is the name most people will reach for here, and he will likely be priced like it. I am going with Jaime because his overall profile grades out better in the model, and he will not carry the shortest price.

**Pick:** Jaime Jaquez Jr. (MIL) to score the first basket

**Also consider:** Pascal Siakam (IND)

## Suns vs. Thunder First Basket Pick

*8:00 PM ET · NBA League Pass · Total 221.5*

The Suns are 1 for 2 on opening tips this season, and the Thunder are 2 for 3.

Khaman is averaging 2.5 shots and 5.5 points a night, and the PHO have run their first look through him in 0 of 2 starts. It is early, 0 first baskets in 2 starts, so size this one small.

The chalk in this game is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at 27.7 points a night. I would rather take Khaman, since his overall profile grades out better in the model, and he will not carry the shortest price.

**Pick:** Khaman Maluach (PHO) to score the first basket

**Also consider:** Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC)

## Hawks vs. Rockets First Basket Pick

*8:30 PM ET · NBA League Pass · Total 229.5*

The Hawks are 1 for 3 on opening tips this season, and the Rockets are 2 for 3. The tip leans Rockets, so my pick has to beat the possession math, and the case below is why I think he can.

The volume is there for Jalen: 18 field goal attempts and 21.7 points a game, with the first shot of the night in 1 of 3 starts. It is early, 1 first basket in 3 starts, so the volume is doing more of the work here than the hit rate.

**Pick:** Jalen Johnson (ATL) to score the first basket

**Also consider:** Alperen Sengun (HOU)

## Grizzlies vs. Jazz First Basket Pick

*9:00 PM ET · NBA League Pass · Total 237.5*

The Grizzlies are 2 for 3 on opening tips this season, and the Jazz are 1 for 3. That gives the Grizzlies the better shot at the first possession, which is where I want my pick.

The volume is there for Ty: 21.3 field goal attempts and 34.7 points a game, with the first shot of the night in 1 of 3 starts. It is early, 1 first basket in 3 starts, so the volume is doing more of the work here than the hit rate. The matchup helps too: the UTH rank 1st in points allowed to Gs (47.6 a game).

**Pick:** Ty Jerome (MEM) to score the first basket

**Also consider:** Keyonte George (UTH)

## Warriors vs. Nuggets First Basket Pick

*10:00 PM ET · NBCSN · Total 236.5*

The Warriors are 0 for 3 on opening tips this season, and the Nuggets are 1 for 2. The tip edge leans Nuggets, and the first possession is half the battle in this market.

Aaron Gordon is putting up 13.5 points on 9 shots a game, and he has taken the opening shot in 0 of 2 starts. He has scored the first basket in 1 of 2 starts so far. That is an early sample, so treat this as a lean, not a lock.

Yaxel Lendeborg (18.7 PPG) is the name most people will reach for here, and he will likely be priced like it. I am going with Aaron because his overall profile grades out better in the model, and he will not carry the shortest price.

**Pick:** Aaron Gordon (DEN) to score the first basket

**Also consider:** Yaxel Lendeborg (GSW)

## Related Guides

- [First Basket Betting Guide](/blog/nba-first-basket-betting-guide)
- [NBA DVP Matchups Explained](/blog/nba-dvp-matchups-explained)
- [NBA Dashboard Quickstart](/blog/nba-dashboard-quickstart-for-beginners)

## Before You Lock

Confirm lineups on the [First Basket dashboard](/nba/first-basket); starters can change up to 2 hours before tip. A late scratch changes who takes the first shot, so recheck any pick whose team is listed as questionable.

For the complete breakdown of our scoring methodology, tipoff analysis, and bankroll strategy, see the [First Basket Betting Guide](/blog/nba-first-basket-betting-guide).

**More from HeatCheck HQ:**
- [Live First Basket Dashboard](/nba/first-basket): real time data for all tonight's starters
- [Streak Plays Tonight](/nba/streaks): players on hot streaks vs their lines
- [First Basket Betting Guide](/blog/nba-first-basket-betting-guide): full methodology

*Picks update as lineups confirm. Bookmark [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io) for today's full slate.*

## Related Resources

- Parent hub: [NBA Props Hub](/blog/topic/nba-props)
- Daily stream: [NBA First Basket Picks](/blog/stream/nba-first-basket-picks)
- Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq)
- Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog)


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*Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*