# NBA First Basket Picks Today: November 9, 2026 (Every Game)

> NBA first basket picks for every game on tonight's 8 game slate. Opening tip records, shot volume, and first shot rates, with De'Aaron Fox on top.

**Date:** 2026-11-09  
**Author:** HeatCheck HQ  
**Tags:** First Basket, NBA, Daily Picks, Player Props, Betting Strategy  
**Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/nba-first-basket-picks-nov-9-2026  
**Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io

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**Today's best NBA first basket picks for Monday, November 9, 2026** are De'Aaron Fox (Score: 82, 8.6 shots per game, first shot in 20.0% of starts), Nickeil Alexander-Walker (Score: 64, 16.8 shots per game, first shot in 9.1% of starts), Jamal Murray (Score: 62, 16.1 shots per game, first shot in 37.5% of starts). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's ten factor composite scoring model, updated daily.

# NBA First Basket Picks Today: November 9, 2026

There are 8 NBA games tonight, and I have a first basket pick for every one of them. For each game I start with the opening tip, then look for the starter who is most likely to get the first shot and has the volume to make it count. It is early in the season, so the first basket rates are small samples. I am weighting shot volume and role more heavily until the numbers settle.

> [First Basket dashboard](/nba/first-basket): live lineup confirmations before locks.

> **Yesterday's picks:** [NBA First Basket Picks: November 8](/blog/nba-first-basket-picks-nov-8-2026)

## Tonight's First Basket Picks at a Glance

| Game | Tip (ET) | Pick | First Shot % | First Baskets | PPG / FGA |
|------|----------|------|--------------|---------------|-----------|
| LAL @ ATL | 7:00 PM | Nickeil Alexander-Walker (ATL) | 9.1% | 3/11 | 22.1 / 16.8 |
| CLE @ CHA | 7:00 PM | Jarrett Allen (CLE) | 25.0% | 2/8 | 13.3 / 8.3 |
| WSH @ DET | 7:00 PM | John Collins (DET) | 22.2% | 3/9 | 9.2 / 8.3 |
| MEM @ TOR | 7:30 PM | Zach Edey (MEM) | 25.0% | 2/8 | 8.3 / 5.6 |
| IND @ DAL | 8:00 PM | Pascal Siakam (IND) | 22.2% | 2/9 | 21.4 / 16.3 |
| DEN @ HOU | 8:30 PM | Jamal Murray (DEN) | 37.5% | 2/8 | 24.3 / 16.1 |
| SA @ PHX | 9:00 PM | De'Aaron Fox (SAS) | 20.0% | 3/10 | 13.8 / 8.6 |
| NO @ GS | 10:00 PM | Brandin Podziemski (GSW) | 12.5% | 1/8 | 15.8 / 11.9 |

## Lakers vs. Hawks First Basket Pick

*7:00 PM ET · Spectrum Sports Net · Total 233.5*

The Lakers are 5 for 11 on opening tips this season, and the Hawks are 5 for 11.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker is putting up 22.1 points on 16.8 shots a game, and he has taken the opening shot in 9.1% of his starts. He has turned that into 3 first baskets in 11 starts, a 27.3% rate. The matchup helps too: the LAL rank 7th in points allowed to Gs (29.0 a game).

**Pick:** Nickeil Alexander-Walker (ATL) to score the first basket

**Also consider:** Walker Kessler (LAL)

## Cavaliers vs. Hornets First Basket Pick

*7:00 PM ET · DAZN CLE · Total 215.5*

The Cavaliers are 8 for 10 on opening tips this season, and the Hornets are 3 for 10. The tip edge leans Cavaliers, and the first possession is half the battle in this market.

Jarrett Allen is putting up 13.3 points on 8.3 shots a game, and he has taken the opening shot in 2 of 8 starts. He has scored the first basket in 2 of 8 starts so far. That is an early sample, so treat this as a lean, not a lock.

Naz Reid (16.6 PPG) is the name most people will reach for here, and he will likely be priced like it. I am going with Jarrett because he gets the first look more often (2 of 8 starts vs 10.0% for Naz).

**Pick:** Jarrett Allen (CLE) to score the first basket

**Also consider:** Naz Reid (CHA)

## Wizards vs. Pistons First Basket Pick

*7:00 PM ET · NBCSN · Total 218.5*

The Wizards are 6 for 10 on opening tips this season, and the Pistons are 3 for 9. The tip leans Wizards, so my pick has to beat the possession math, and the case below is why I think he can.

The volume is there for John: 8.3 field goal attempts and 9.2 points a game, with the first shot of the night in 2 of 9 starts. It is early, 3 first baskets in 9 starts, so size this one small.

The chalk in this game is Trae Young at 18.4 points a night. I would rather take John, since he gets the first look more often (2 of 9 starts vs 10.0% for Trae).

**Pick:** John Collins (DET) to score the first basket

**Also consider:** Trae Young (WAS)

> **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [First Basket dashboard](/nba/first-basket).

## Grizzlies vs. Raptors First Basket Pick

*7:30 PM ET · DAZN MEM · Total 225.5*

The Grizzlies are 5 for 9 on opening tips this season, and the Raptors are 6 for 9.

The volume is there for Zach: 5.6 field goal attempts and 8.3 points a game, with the first shot of the night in 2 of 8 starts. It is early, 2 first baskets in 8 starts, so size this one small.

The chalk in this game is RJ Barrett at 21.6 points a night. I would rather take Zach, since his overall profile grades out better in the model, and he will not carry the shortest price.

**Pick:** Zach Edey (MEM) to score the first basket

**Also consider:** RJ Barrett (TOR)

## Pacers vs. Mavericks First Basket Pick

*8:00 PM ET · KFAA-TV · Total 226.5*

The Pacers are 4 for 10 on opening tips this season, and the Mavericks are 4 for 10.

The volume is there for Pascal: 16.3 field goal attempts and 21.4 points a game, with the first shot of the night in 2 of 9 starts. He has scored the first basket in 2 of 9 starts so far. That is an early sample, so I am leaning on the shot volume more than the rate.

**Pick:** Pascal Siakam (IND) to score the first basket

**Also consider:** Daniel Gafford (DAL)

## Nuggets vs. Rockets First Basket Pick

*8:30 PM ET · ALT2/KTVD · Total 223.5*

The Nuggets are 3 for 8 on opening tips this season, and the Rockets are 6 for 10.

Jamal Murray is putting up 24.3 points on 16.1 shots a game, and he has taken the opening shot in 3 of 8 starts. It is early, 2 first baskets in 8 starts, so the volume is doing more of the work here than the hit rate.

**Pick:** Jamal Murray (DEN) to score the first basket

**Also consider:** Fred VanVleet (HOU)

## Spurs vs. Suns First Basket Pick

*9:00 PM ET · Arizona's Family 3TV · Total 226.5 · Top play of the night*

The Spurs are 9 for 10 on opening tips this season, and the Suns are 4 for 8. The tip edge leans Spurs, and the first possession is half the battle in this market.

De'Aaron is averaging 8.6 shots and 13.8 points a night, and the SAS have run their first look through him in 20.0% of his starts. He has turned that into 3 first baskets in 10 starts, a 30.0% rate.

Devin Booker (25.3 PPG) is the name most people will reach for here, and he will likely be priced like it. I am going with De'Aaron because he gets the first look more often (20.0% starts vs 0 of 8 for Devin).

**Pick:** De'Aaron Fox (SAS) to score the first basket

**Also consider:** Devin Booker (PHO)

## Pelicans vs. Warriors First Basket Pick

*10:00 PM ET · NBA TV · Total 229.5*

The Pelicans are 2 for 10 on opening tips this season, and the Warriors are 2 for 10.

Brandin is averaging 11.9 shots and 15.8 points a night, and the GSW have run their first look through him in 1 of 8 starts. It is early, 1 first basket in 8 starts, so size this one small. The matchup helps too: the NOR rank 1st in points allowed to Gs (33.9 a game).

**Pick:** Brandin Podziemski (GSW) to score the first basket

**Also consider:** Jeremiah Fears (NOR)

## Related Guides

- [First Basket Betting Guide](/blog/nba-first-basket-betting-guide)
- [NBA DVP Matchups Explained](/blog/nba-dvp-matchups-explained)
- [NBA Dashboard Quickstart](/blog/nba-dashboard-quickstart-for-beginners)

## Before You Lock

Confirm lineups on the [First Basket dashboard](/nba/first-basket); starters can change up to 2 hours before tip. A late scratch changes who takes the first shot, so recheck any pick whose team is listed as questionable.

For the complete breakdown of our scoring methodology, tipoff analysis, and bankroll strategy, see the [First Basket Betting Guide](/blog/nba-first-basket-betting-guide).

**More from HeatCheck HQ:**
- [Live First Basket Dashboard](/nba/first-basket): real time data for all tonight's starters
- [Streak Plays Tonight](/nba/streaks): players on hot streaks vs their lines
- [First Basket Betting Guide](/blog/nba-first-basket-betting-guide): full methodology

*Picks update as lineups confirm. Bookmark [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io) for today's full slate.*

## Related Resources

- Parent hub: [NBA Props Hub](/blog/topic/nba-props)
- Daily stream: [NBA First Basket Picks](/blog/stream/nba-first-basket-picks)
- Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq)
- Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog)


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