# NBA First Basket Picks Today: November 7, 2026 (Every Game)

> Who scores first tonight? A first basket pick for each of the 7 NBA games, built on tip-off wins, shots per game, and first shot share. Updated daily.

**Date:** 2026-11-07  
**Author:** HeatCheck HQ  
**Tags:** First Basket, NBA, Daily Picks, Player Props, Betting Strategy  
**Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/nba-first-basket-picks-nov-7-2026  
**Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io

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**Today's best NBA first basket picks for Saturday, November 7, 2026** are De'Aaron Fox (Score: 82, 9.2 shots per game, first shot in 22.2% of starts), Jamal Murray (Score: 72, 16.6 shots per game, first shot in 42.9% of starts), Wendell Carter Jr. (Score: 66, 7.6 shots per game, first shot in 37.5% of starts). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's ten factor composite scoring model, updated daily.

# NBA First Basket Picks Today: November 7, 2026

There are 7 NBA games tonight, and I have a first basket pick for every one of them. For each game I start with the opening tip, then look for the starter who is most likely to get the first shot and has the volume to make it count. It is early in the season, so the first basket rates are small samples. I am weighting shot volume and role more heavily until the numbers settle.

> [First Basket dashboard](/nba/first-basket): live lineup confirmations before locks.

> **Yesterday's picks:** [NBA First Basket Picks: November 6](/blog/nba-first-basket-picks-nov-6-2026)

## Tonight's First Basket Picks at a Glance

| Game | Tip (ET) | Pick | First Shot % | First Baskets | PPG / FGA |
|------|----------|------|--------------|---------------|-----------|
| DEN @ IND | 5:00 PM | Jamal Murray (DEN) | 42.9% | 2/7 | 25.4 / 16.6 |
| BKN @ ATL | 7:30 PM | Michael Porter Jr. (BKN) | 12.5% | 2/8 | 21.4 / 15.4 |
| NY @ CLE | 8:00 PM | Evan Mobley (CLE) | 22.2% | 1/9 | 19.1 / 12.6 |
| WSH @ OKC | 8:00 PM | Alex Sarr (WAS) | 0.0% | 1/8 | 10 / 7.3 |
| ORL @ GS | 8:30 PM | Wendell Carter Jr. (ORL) | 37.5% | 2/8 | 14.3 / 7.6 |
| HOU @ PHX | 9:00 PM | Devin Booker (PHO) | 0.0% | 2/7 | 25.4 / 17.6 |
| SA @ POR | 10:00 PM | De'Aaron Fox (SAS) | 22.2% | 3/9 | 14.4 / 9.2 |

## Nuggets vs. Pacers First Basket Pick

*5:00 PM ET · NBA TV · Total 229.5*

The Nuggets are 3 for 7 on opening tips this season, and the Pacers are 3 for 9.

The volume is there for Jamal: 16.6 field goal attempts and 25.4 points a game, with the first shot of the night in 3 of 7 starts. It is early, 2 first baskets in 7 starts, so the volume is doing more of the work here than the hit rate.

**Pick:** Jamal Murray (DEN) to score the first basket

**Also consider:** Pascal Siakam (IND)

## Nets vs. Hawks First Basket Pick

*7:30 PM ET · DAZN (YES) · Total 228.5*

The Nets are 4 for 8 on opening tips this season, and the Hawks are 4 for 10.

The volume is there for Michael: 15.4 field goal attempts and 21.4 points a game, with the first shot of the night in 1 of 8 starts. It is early, 2 first baskets in 8 starts, so the volume is doing more of the work here than the hit rate. The matchup helps too: the ATL rank 3rd in points allowed to Fs (24.3 a game).

**Pick:** Michael Porter Jr. (BKN) to score the first basket

**Also consider:** Nickeil Alexander-Walker (ATL)

## Knicks vs. Cavaliers First Basket Pick

*8:00 PM ET · NBA TV · Total 223.5*

The Knicks are 5 for 8 on opening tips this season, and the Cavaliers are 7 for 9.

The volume is there for Evan: 12.6 field goal attempts and 19.1 points a game, with the first shot of the night in 2 of 9 starts. He has scored the first basket in 1 of 9 starts so far. That is an early sample, so I am leaning on the shot volume more than the rate. The matchup helps too: the NYK rank 8th in points allowed to Fs (22.6 a game).

**Pick:** Evan Mobley (CLE) to score the first basket

**Also consider:** Karl-Anthony Towns (NYK)

> **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [First Basket dashboard](/nba/first-basket).

## Wizards vs. Thunder First Basket Pick

*8:00 PM ET · MNMT · Total 222.5*

The Wizards are 6 for 9 on opening tips this season, and the Thunder are 4 for 9.

Alex is averaging 7.3 shots and 10 points a night, and the WAS have run their first look through him in 0 of 8 starts. He has scored the first basket in 1 of 8 starts so far. That is an early sample, so treat this as a lean, not a lock.

**Pick:** Alex Sarr (WAS) to score the first basket

**Also consider:** Isaiah Hartenstein (OKC)

## Magic vs. Warriors First Basket Pick

*8:30 PM ET · Total 222.5*

The Magic are 6 for 8 on opening tips this season, and the Warriors are 2 for 9. The tip edge leans Magic, and the first possession is half the battle in this market.

The volume is there for Wendell: 7.6 field goal attempts and 14.3 points a game, with the first shot of the night in 3 of 8 starts. He has scored the first basket in 2 of 8 starts so far. That is an early sample, so treat this as a lean, not a lock.

Yaxel Lendeborg (21 PPG) is the name most people will reach for here, and he will likely be priced like it. I am going with Wendell because he gets the first look more often (3 of 8 starts vs 1 of 9 for Yaxel).

**Pick:** Wendell Carter Jr. (ORL) to score the first basket

**Also consider:** Yaxel Lendeborg (GSW)

## Rockets vs. Suns First Basket Pick

*9:00 PM ET · Arizona's Family 3TV · Total 223.5*

The Rockets are 5 for 9 on opening tips this season, and the Suns are 4 for 7.

The volume is there for Devin: 17.6 field goal attempts and 25.4 points a game, with the first shot of the night in 0 of 7 starts. He has scored the first basket in 2 of 7 starts so far. That is an early sample, so I am leaning on the shot volume more than the rate.

**Pick:** Devin Booker (PHO) to score the first basket

**Also consider:** Kevin Durant (HOU)

## Spurs vs. Trail Blazers First Basket Pick

*10:00 PM ET · KUNP 16 · Total 226.5 · Top play of the night*

The Spurs are 8 for 9 on opening tips this season, and the Trail Blazers are 6 for 8.

The volume is there for De'Aaron: 9.2 field goal attempts and 14.4 points a game, with the first shot of the night in 2 of 9 starts. He has scored the first basket in 3 of 9 starts so far. That is an early sample, so treat this as a lean, not a lock. The matchup helps too: the POR rank 3rd in points allowed to Gs (31.9 a game).

Damian Lillard (20.4 PPG) is the name most people will reach for here, and he will likely be priced like it. I am going with De'Aaron because his overall profile grades out better in the model, and he will not carry the shortest price.

**Pick:** De'Aaron Fox (SAS) to score the first basket

**Also consider:** Damian Lillard (POR)

## Related Guides

- [First Basket Betting Guide](/blog/nba-first-basket-betting-guide)
- [NBA DVP Matchups Explained](/blog/nba-dvp-matchups-explained)
- [NBA Dashboard Quickstart](/blog/nba-dashboard-quickstart-for-beginners)

## Before You Lock

Confirm lineups on the [First Basket dashboard](/nba/first-basket); starters can change up to 2 hours before tip. A late scratch changes who takes the first shot, so recheck any pick whose team is listed as questionable.

For the complete breakdown of our scoring methodology, tipoff analysis, and bankroll strategy, see the [First Basket Betting Guide](/blog/nba-first-basket-betting-guide).

**More from HeatCheck HQ:**
- [Live First Basket Dashboard](/nba/first-basket): real time data for all tonight's starters
- [Streak Plays Tonight](/nba/streaks): players on hot streaks vs their lines
- [First Basket Betting Guide](/blog/nba-first-basket-betting-guide): full methodology

*Picks update as lineups confirm. Bookmark [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io) for today's full slate.*

## Related Resources

- Parent hub: [NBA Props Hub](/blog/topic/nba-props)
- Daily stream: [NBA First Basket Picks](/blog/stream/nba-first-basket-picks)
- Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq)
- Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog)


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*Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*