# NBA First Basket Picks Today: November 6, 2026 (Every Game) > NBA first basket picks for every game on tonight's 9 game slate. Opening tip records, shot volume, and first shot rates, with Victor Wembanyama on top. **Date:** 2026-11-06 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** First Basket, NBA, Daily Picks, Player Props, Betting Strategy **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/nba-first-basket-picks-nov-6-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best NBA first basket picks for Friday, November 6, 2026** are Victor Wembanyama (Score: 81, 21.9 shots per game, first shot in 12.5% of starts), Damian Lillard (Score: 80, 14.3 shots per game, first shot in 28.6% of starts), Jarrett Allen (Score: 73, 8.3 shots per game, first shot in 25.0% of starts). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's ten factor composite scoring model, updated daily. # NBA First Basket Picks Today: November 6, 2026 There are 9 NBA games tonight, and I have a first basket pick for every one of them. For each game I start with the opening tip, then look for the starter who is most likely to get the first shot and has the volume to make it count. It is early in the season, so the first basket rates are small samples. I am weighting shot volume and role more heavily until the numbers settle. > [First Basket dashboard](/nba/first-basket): live lineup confirmations before locks. > **Yesterday's picks:** [NBA First Basket Picks: November 5](/blog/nba-first-basket-picks-nov-5-2026) ## Tonight's First Basket Picks at a Glance | Game | Tip (ET) | Pick | First Shot % | First Baskets | PPG / FGA | |------|----------|------|--------------|---------------|-----------| | WSH @ ATL | 7:00 PM | Trae Young (WAS) | 12.5% | 1/8 | 19.6 / 13.3 | | BOS @ CHA | 7:00 PM | Paul George (BOS) | 28.6% | 2/7 | 21.3 / 16.1 | | PHI @ CLE | 7:30 PM | Jarrett Allen (CLE) | 25.0% | 2/8 | 13.3 / 8.3 | | UTAH @ DAL | 8:00 PM | Lauri Markkanen (UTH) | 14.3% | 2/7 | 17.1 / 13.3 | | OKC @ MEM | 8:00 PM | Zach Edey (MEM) | 14.3% | 2/7 | 7.4 / 5.4 | | TOR @ MIL | 8:00 PM | RJ Barrett (TOR) | 12.5% | 2/8 | 20.9 / 16.6 | | MIN @ NO | 8:00 PM | LaMelo Ball (MIN) | 11.1% | 2/9 | 17.2 / 13.4 | | POR @ LAL | 10:00 PM | Damian Lillard (POR) | 28.6% | 2/7 | 20.1 / 14.3 | | SA @ SAC | 10:00 PM | Victor Wembanyama (SAS) | 12.5% | 3/8 | 29 / 21.9 | ## Wizards vs. Hawks First Basket Pick *7:00 PM ET · MNMT · Total 228.5* The Wizards are 5 for 8 on opening tips this season, and the Hawks are 4 for 9. The volume is there for Trae: 13.3 field goal attempts and 19.6 points a game, with the first shot of the night in 1 of 8 starts. It is early, 1 first basket in 8 starts, so the volume is doing more of the work here than the hit rate. **Pick:** Trae Young (WAS) to score the first basket **Also consider:** Nickeil Alexander-Walker (ATL) ## Celtics vs. Hornets First Basket Pick *7:00 PM ET · Total 207.5* The Celtics are 5 for 8 on opening tips this season, and the Hornets are 2 for 9. The tip edge leans Celtics, and the first possession is half the battle in this market. The volume is there for Paul: 16.1 field goal attempts and 21.3 points a game, with the first shot of the night in 2 of 7 starts. He has scored the first basket in 2 of 7 starts so far. That is an early sample, so I am leaning on the shot volume more than the rate. **Pick:** Paul George (BOS) to score the first basket **Also consider:** Naz Reid (CHA) ## 76ers vs. Cavaliers First Basket Pick *7:30 PM ET · Prime Video · Total 229.5* The 76ers are 6 for 9 on opening tips this season, and the Cavaliers are 6 for 8. Jarrett Allen is putting up 13.3 points on 8.3 shots a game, and he has taken the opening shot in 2 of 8 starts. It is early, 2 first baskets in 8 starts, so size this one small. **Pick:** Jarrett Allen (CLE) to score the first basket **Also consider:** VJ Edgecombe (PHI) > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [First Basket dashboard](/nba/first-basket). ## Jazz vs. Mavericks First Basket Pick *8:00 PM ET · KFAA-TV · Total 224.5* The Jazz are 2 for 8 on opening tips this season, and the Mavericks are 3 for 8. Lauri is averaging 13.3 shots and 17.1 points a night, and the UTH have run their first look through him in 1 of 7 starts. He has scored the first basket in 2 of 7 starts so far. That is an early sample, so I am leaning on the shot volume more than the rate. **Pick:** Lauri Markkanen (UTH) to score the first basket **Also consider:** Daniel Gafford (DAL) ## Thunder vs. Grizzlies First Basket Pick *8:00 PM ET · KSBI · Total 223.5* The Thunder are 4 for 8 on opening tips this season, and the Grizzlies are 4 for 8. The volume is there for Zach: 5.4 field goal attempts and 7.4 points a game, with the first shot of the night in 1 of 7 starts. He has scored the first basket in 2 of 7 starts so far. That is an early sample, so treat this as a lean, not a lock. **Pick:** Zach Edey (MEM) to score the first basket **Also consider:** Isaiah Hartenstein (OKC) ## Raptors vs. Bucks First Basket Pick *8:00 PM ET · MyMi · Total 229.5* The Raptors are 5 for 8 on opening tips this season, and the Bucks are 3 for 8. That gives the Raptors the better shot at the first possession, which is where I want my pick. RJ Barrett is putting up 20.9 points on 16.6 shots a game, and he has taken the opening shot in 1 of 8 starts. It is early, 2 first baskets in 8 starts, so the volume is doing more of the work here than the hit rate. The matchup helps too: the MIL rank 3rd in points allowed to Fs (24.7 a game). **Pick:** RJ Barrett (TOR) to score the first basket **Also consider:** Jaime Jaquez Jr. (MIL) ## Timberwolves vs. Pelicans First Basket Pick *8:00 PM ET · GCSEN · Total 230.5* The Timberwolves are 4 for 9 on opening tips this season, and the Pelicans are 1 for 8. The tip edge leans Timberwolves, and the first possession is half the battle in this market. LaMelo Ball is putting up 17.2 points on 13.4 shots a game, and he has taken the opening shot in 1 of 9 starts. He has scored the first basket in 2 of 9 starts so far. That is an early sample, so I am leaning on the shot volume more than the rate. The matchup helps too: the NOR rank 1st in points allowed to Gs (34.5 a game). **Pick:** LaMelo Ball (MIN) to score the first basket **Also consider:** Trey Murphy III (NOR) ## Trail Blazers vs. Lakers First Basket Pick *10:00 PM ET · Prime Video · Total 231.5* The Trail Blazers are 6 for 7 on opening tips this season, and the Lakers are 4 for 9. That gives the Trail Blazers the better shot at the first possession, which is where I want my pick. The volume is there for Damian: 14.3 field goal attempts and 20.1 points a game, with the first shot of the night in 2 of 7 starts. It is early, 2 first baskets in 7 starts, so the volume is doing more of the work here than the hit rate. The matchup helps too: the LAL rank 4th in points allowed to Gs (30.7 a game). **Pick:** Damian Lillard (POR) to score the first basket ## Spurs vs. Kings First Basket Pick *10:00 PM ET · DAZN SAS · Total 230.5 · Top play of the night* The Spurs are 7 for 8 on opening tips this season, and the Kings are 4 for 8. The tip edge leans Spurs, and the first possession is half the battle in this market. Victor Wembanyama is putting up 29 points on 21.9 shots a game, and he has taken the opening shot in 1 of 8 starts. He has scored the first basket in 3 of 8 starts so far. That is an early sample, so I am leaning on the shot volume more than the rate. The matchup helps too: the SAC rank 2nd in points allowed to Cs (28.7 a game). **Pick:** Victor Wembanyama (SAS) to score the first basket **Also consider:** Zach LaVine (SAC) ## Related Guides - [First Basket Betting Guide](/blog/nba-first-basket-betting-guide) - [NBA DVP Matchups Explained](/blog/nba-dvp-matchups-explained) - [NBA Dashboard Quickstart](/blog/nba-dashboard-quickstart-for-beginners) ## Before You Lock Confirm lineups on the [First Basket dashboard](/nba/first-basket); starters can change up to 2 hours before tip. A late scratch changes who takes the first shot, so recheck any pick whose team is listed as questionable. For the complete breakdown of our scoring methodology, tipoff analysis, and bankroll strategy, see the [First Basket Betting Guide](/blog/nba-first-basket-betting-guide). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Live First Basket Dashboard](/nba/first-basket): real time data for all tonight's starters - [Streak Plays Tonight](/nba/streaks): players on hot streaks vs their lines - [First Basket Betting Guide](/blog/nba-first-basket-betting-guide): full methodology *Picks update as lineups confirm. Bookmark [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io) for today's full slate.* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [NBA Props Hub](/blog/topic/nba-props) - Daily stream: [NBA First Basket Picks](/blog/stream/nba-first-basket-picks) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*