# NBA First Basket Picks Today: November 5, 2026 (Every Game)

> First basket picks for November 5, 2026, game by game. Tip-off records, shot volume, and first shot rates across 2 games. Bam Adebayo leads.

**Date:** 2026-11-05  
**Author:** HeatCheck HQ  
**Tags:** First Basket, NBA, Daily Picks, Player Props, Betting Strategy  
**Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/nba-first-basket-picks-nov-5-2026  
**Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io

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**Today's best NBA first basket picks for Thursday, November 5, 2026** are Bam Adebayo (Score: 92, 13.1 shots per game, first shot in 37.5% of starts), Wendell Carter Jr. (Score: 66, 7 shots per game, first shot in 42.9% of starts), Miles Bridges (Score: 40, 14.2 shots per game, first shot in 0.0% of starts). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's ten factor composite scoring model, updated daily.

# NBA First Basket Picks Today: November 5, 2026

There are 2 NBA games tonight, and I have a first basket pick for every one of them. For each game I start with the opening tip, then look for the starter who is most likely to get the first shot and has the volume to make it count. It is early in the season, so the first basket rates are small samples. I am weighting shot volume and role more heavily until the numbers settle.

> [First Basket dashboard](/nba/first-basket): live lineup confirmations before locks.

> **Yesterday's picks:** [NBA First Basket Picks: November 4](/blog/nba-first-basket-picks-nov-4-2026)

## Tonight's First Basket Picks at a Glance

| Game | Tip (ET) | Pick | First Shot % | First Baskets | PPG / FGA |
|------|----------|------|--------------|---------------|-----------|
| ORL @ PHX | 9:00 PM | Wendell Carter Jr. (ORL) | 42.9% | 2/7 | 12.4 / 7 |
| MIA @ GS | 10:00 PM | Bam Adebayo (MIA) | 37.5% | 4/8 | 18.6 / 13.1 |

## Magic vs. Suns First Basket Pick

*9:00 PM ET · Suns Live · Total 222.5*

The Magic are 5 for 7 on opening tips this season, and the Suns are 4 for 6.

Wendell is averaging 7 shots and 12.4 points a night, and the ORL have run their first look through him in 3 of 7 starts. He has scored the first basket in 2 of 7 starts so far. That is an early sample, so treat this as a lean, not a lock. The matchup helps too: the PHO rank 3rd in points allowed to Cs (26.4 a game).

Miles Bridges (17.3 PPG) is the name most people will reach for here, and he will likely be priced like it. I am going with Wendell because he gets the first look more often (3 of 7 starts vs 0 of 6 for Miles).

**Pick:** Wendell Carter Jr. (ORL) to score the first basket

**Also consider:** Miles Bridges (PHO)

## Heat vs. Warriors First Basket Pick

*10:00 PM ET · NBA TV · Total 232.5 · Top play of the night*

The Heat are 8 for 8 on opening tips this season, and the Warriors are 2 for 8. That gives the Heat the better shot at the first possession, which is where I want my pick.

The volume is there for Bam: 13.1 field goal attempts and 18.6 points a game, with the first shot of the night in 3 of 8 starts. It is early, 4 first baskets in 8 starts, so the volume is doing more of the work here than the hit rate.

**Pick:** Bam Adebayo (MIA) to score the first basket

**Also consider:** Yaxel Lendeborg (GSW)

## Related Guides

- [First Basket Betting Guide](/blog/nba-first-basket-betting-guide)
- [NBA DVP Matchups Explained](/blog/nba-dvp-matchups-explained)
- [NBA Dashboard Quickstart](/blog/nba-dashboard-quickstart-for-beginners)

## Before You Lock

Confirm lineups on the [First Basket dashboard](/nba/first-basket); starters can change up to 2 hours before tip. A late scratch changes who takes the first shot, so recheck any pick whose team is listed as questionable.

For the complete breakdown of our scoring methodology, tipoff analysis, and bankroll strategy, see the [First Basket Betting Guide](/blog/nba-first-basket-betting-guide).

**More from HeatCheck HQ:**
- [Live First Basket Dashboard](/nba/first-basket): real time data for all tonight's starters
- [Streak Plays Tonight](/nba/streaks): players on hot streaks vs their lines
- [First Basket Betting Guide](/blog/nba-first-basket-betting-guide): full methodology

*Picks update as lineups confirm. Bookmark [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io) for today's full slate.*

## Related Resources

- Parent hub: [NBA Props Hub](/blog/topic/nba-props)
- Daily stream: [NBA First Basket Picks](/blog/stream/nba-first-basket-picks)
- Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq)
- Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog)


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*Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*