# NBA First Basket Picks Today: November 4, 2026 (Every Game) > Who scores first tonight? A first basket pick for each of the 14 NBA games, built on tip-off wins, shots per game, and first shot share. Updated daily. **Date:** 2026-11-04 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** First Basket, NBA, Daily Picks, Player Props, Betting Strategy **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/nba-first-basket-picks-nov-4-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best NBA first basket picks for Wednesday, November 4, 2026** are Bam Adebayo (Score: 93, 12.1 shots per game, first shot in 42.9% of starts), Paul George (Score: 75, 15.8 shots per game, first shot in 33.3% of starts), John Collins (Score: 66, 8.4 shots per game, first shot in 28.6% of starts). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's ten factor composite scoring model, updated daily. # NBA First Basket Picks Today: November 4, 2026 There are 14 NBA games tonight, and I have a first basket pick for every one of them. For each game I start with the opening tip, then look for the starter who is most likely to get the first shot and has the volume to make it count. It is early in the season, so the first basket rates are small samples. I am weighting shot volume and role more heavily until the numbers settle. > [First Basket dashboard](/nba/first-basket): live lineup confirmations before locks. ## Tonight's First Basket Picks at a Glance | Game | Tip (ET) | Pick | First Shot % | First Baskets | PPG / FGA | |------|----------|------|--------------|---------------|-----------| | PHI @ DET | 7:00 PM | John Collins (DET) | 28.6% | 3/7 | 8.4 / 8.4 | | ATL @ WSH | 7:00 PM | Nickeil Alexander-Walker (ATL) | 12.5% | 2/8 | 21.1 / 16 | | MIL @ BOS | 7:30 PM | Paul George (BOS) | 33.3% | 2/6 | 20.7 / 15.8 | | CHA @ BKN | 7:30 PM | Michael Porter Jr. (BKN) | 14.3% | 2/7 | 20.7 / 15.1 | | CHI @ NY | 7:30 PM | Karl-Anthony Towns (NYK) | 28.6% | 1/7 | 20.3 / 14 | | IND @ MEM | 8:00 PM | Zach Edey (MEM) | 16.7% | 2/6 | 6.8 / 5.3 | | UTAH @ NO | 8:00 PM | Trey Murphy III (NOR) | 14.3% | 1/7 | 14.9 / 11 | | CLE @ OKC | 8:00 PM | Jarrett Allen (CLE) | 28.6% | 2/7 | 15.1 / 9.3 | | MIN @ HOU | 8:30 PM | Jaden McDaniels (MIN) | 0.0% | 2/8 | 16.8 / 13.5 | | TOR @ DEN | 9:00 PM | Jamal Murray (DEN) | 50.0% | 2/6 | 27.3 / 17.5 | | POR @ PHX | 9:00 PM | Damian Lillard (POR) | 16.7% | 1/6 | 19.3 / 13.8 | | DAL @ SA | 9:30 PM | Victor Wembanyama (SAS) | 14.3% | 2/7 | 25.7 / 21 | | LAL @ SAC | 10:00 PM | Zach LaVine (SAC) | 28.6% | 1/7 | 23.4 / 15.6 | | MIA @ LAC | 10:30 PM | Bam Adebayo (MIA) | 42.9% | 3/7 | 16.3 / 12.1 | ## 76ers vs. Pistons First Basket Pick *7:00 PM ET · ESPN · Total 219.5* The 76ers are 5 for 8 on opening tips this season, and the Pistons are 2 for 7. The tip leans 76ers, so my pick has to beat the possession math, and the case below is why I think he can. John Collins is putting up 8.4 points on 8.4 shots a game, and he has taken the opening shot in 2 of 7 starts. He has scored the first basket in 3 of 7 starts so far. That is an early sample, so treat this as a lean, not a lock. VJ Edgecombe (12.7 PPG) is the name most people will reach for here, and he will likely be priced like it. I am going with John because his overall profile grades out better in the model, and he will not carry the shortest price. **Pick:** John Collins (DET) to score the first basket **Also consider:** VJ Edgecombe (PHI) ## Hawks vs. Wizards First Basket Pick *7:00 PM ET · MNMT · Total 230.5* The Hawks are 3 for 8 on opening tips this season, and the Wizards are 5 for 7. The tip leans Wizards, so my pick has to beat the possession math, and the case below is why I think he can. The volume is there for Nickeil: 16 field goal attempts and 21.1 points a game, with the first shot of the night in 1 of 8 starts. It is early, 2 first baskets in 8 starts, so the volume is doing more of the work here than the hit rate. **Pick:** Nickeil Alexander-Walker (ATL) to score the first basket **Also consider:** Alex Sarr (WAS) ## Bucks vs. Celtics First Basket Pick *7:30 PM ET · MyMi · Total 221.5* The Bucks are 2 for 7 on opening tips this season, and the Celtics are 5 for 7. The tip edge leans Celtics, and the first possession is half the battle in this market. Paul George is putting up 20.7 points on 15.8 shots a game, and he has taken the opening shot in 2 of 6 starts. He has scored the first basket in 2 of 6 starts so far. That is an early sample, so I am leaning on the shot volume more than the rate. The matchup helps too: the MIL rank 6th in points allowed to Fs (23.5 a game). **Pick:** Paul George (BOS) to score the first basket **Also consider:** Jaime Jaquez Jr. (MIL) > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [First Basket dashboard](/nba/first-basket). ## Hornets vs. Nets First Basket Pick *7:30 PM ET · DAZN (YES) · Total 212.5* The Hornets are 1 for 8 on opening tips this season, and the Nets are 4 for 7. The tip edge leans Nets, and the first possession is half the battle in this market. The volume is there for Michael: 15.1 field goal attempts and 20.7 points a game, with the first shot of the night in 1 of 7 starts. He has scored the first basket in 2 of 7 starts so far. That is an early sample, so I am leaning on the shot volume more than the rate. **Pick:** Michael Porter Jr. (BKN) to score the first basket **Also consider:** Moussa Diabate (CHA) ## Bulls vs. Knicks First Basket Pick *7:30 PM ET · Total 233.5* The Bulls are 2 for 7 on opening tips this season, and the Knicks are 4 for 7. The tip edge leans Knicks, and the first possession is half the battle in this market. Karl-Anthony Towns is putting up 20.3 points on 14 shots a game, and he has taken the opening shot in 2 of 7 starts. He has scored the first basket in 1 of 7 starts so far. That is an early sample, so I am leaning on the shot volume more than the rate. **Pick:** Karl-Anthony Towns (NYK) to score the first basket **Also consider:** Caleb Wilson (CHI) ## Pacers vs. Grizzlies First Basket Pick *8:00 PM ET · DAZN MEM · Total 228.5* The Pacers are 3 for 8 on opening tips this season, and the Grizzlies are 3 for 7. Zach Edey is putting up 6.8 points on 5.3 shots a game, and he has taken the opening shot in 1 of 6 starts. He has scored the first basket in 2 of 6 starts so far. That is an early sample, so treat this as a lean, not a lock. The matchup helps too: the IND rank 3rd in points allowed to Cs (26.5 a game). Pascal Siakam (21.4 PPG) is the name most people will reach for here, and he will likely be priced like it. I am going with Zach because he is on the side more likely to win the tip. **Pick:** Zach Edey (MEM) to score the first basket **Also consider:** Pascal Siakam (IND) ## Jazz vs. Pelicans First Basket Pick *8:00 PM ET · GCSEN · Total 231.5* The Jazz are 1 for 7 on opening tips this season, and the Pelicans are 1 for 7. Trey Murphy III is putting up 14.9 points on 11 shots a game, and he has taken the opening shot in 1 of 7 starts. It is early, 1 first basket in 7 starts, so size this one small. **Pick:** Trey Murphy III (NOR) to score the first basket **Also consider:** Ace Bailey (UTH) ## Cavaliers vs. Thunder First Basket Pick *8:00 PM ET · KSBI · Total 226.5* The Cavaliers are 5 for 7 on opening tips this season, and the Thunder are 4 for 7. The volume is there for Jarrett: 9.3 field goal attempts and 15.1 points a game, with the first shot of the night in 2 of 7 starts. It is early, 2 first baskets in 7 starts, so size this one small. **Pick:** Jarrett Allen (CLE) to score the first basket **Also consider:** Isaiah Hartenstein (OKC) ## Timberwolves vs. Rockets First Basket Pick *8:30 PM ET · DAZN MIN · Total 218.5* The Timberwolves are 3 for 8 on opening tips this season, and the Rockets are 5 for 8. The tip leans Rockets, so my pick has to beat the possession math, and the case below is why I think he can. Jaden McDaniels is putting up 16.8 points on 13.5 shots a game, and he has taken the opening shot in 0 of 8 starts. It is early, 2 first baskets in 8 starts, so the volume is doing more of the work here than the hit rate. **Pick:** Jaden McDaniels (MIN) to score the first basket **Also consider:** Amen Thompson (HOU) ## Raptors vs. Nuggets First Basket Pick *9:00 PM ET · Total 231.5* The Raptors are 4 for 7 on opening tips this season, and the Nuggets are 3 for 6. The volume is there for Jamal: 17.5 field goal attempts and 27.3 points a game, with the first shot of the night in 3 of 6 starts. He has scored the first basket in 2 of 6 starts so far. That is an early sample, so I am leaning on the shot volume more than the rate. **Pick:** Jamal Murray (DEN) to score the first basket **Also consider:** RJ Barrett (TOR) ## Trail Blazers vs. Suns First Basket Pick *9:00 PM ET · KUNP 16 · Total 227.5* The Trail Blazers are 5 for 6 on opening tips this season, and the Suns are 4 for 5. Damian is averaging 13.8 shots and 19.3 points a night, and the POR have run their first look through him in 1 of 6 starts. It is early, 1 first basket in 6 starts, so the volume is doing more of the work here than the hit rate. The matchup helps too: the PHO rank 6th in points allowed to Gs (30.8 a game). **Pick:** Damian Lillard (POR) to score the first basket **Also consider:** Miles Bridges (PHO) ## Mavericks vs. Spurs First Basket Pick *9:30 PM ET · ESPN · Total 226.5* The Mavericks are 2 for 7 on opening tips this season, and the Spurs are 7 for 7. The tip edge leans Spurs, and the first possession is half the battle in this market. Victor is averaging 21 shots and 25.7 points a night, and the SAS have run their first look through him in 1 of 7 starts. He has scored the first basket in 2 of 7 starts so far. That is an early sample, so I am leaning on the shot volume more than the rate. **Pick:** Victor Wembanyama (SAS) to score the first basket **Also consider:** Daniel Gafford (DAL) ## Lakers vs. Kings First Basket Pick *10:00 PM ET · Spectrum Sports Net · Total 233.5* The Lakers are 4 for 8 on opening tips this season, and the Kings are 4 for 7. Zach LaVine is putting up 23.4 points on 15.6 shots a game, and he has taken the opening shot in 2 of 7 starts. He has scored the first basket in 1 of 7 starts so far. That is an early sample, so I am leaning on the shot volume more than the rate. The matchup helps too: the LAL rank 3rd in points allowed to Gs (31.4 a game). **Pick:** Zach LaVine (SAC) to score the first basket **Also consider:** Austin Reaves (LAL) ## Heat vs. Clippers First Basket Pick *10:30 PM ET · ClipperVision · Total 233.5 · Top play of the night* The Heat are 7 for 7 on opening tips this season, and the Clippers are 1 for 7. The tip edge leans Heat, and the first possession is half the battle in this market. Bam is averaging 12.1 shots and 16.3 points a night, and the MIA have run their first look through him in 3 of 7 starts. He has scored the first basket in 3 of 7 starts so far. That is an early sample, so I am leaning on the shot volume more than the rate. Darius Garland (20.1 PPG) is the name most people will reach for here, and he will likely be priced like it. I am going with Bam because he gets the first look more often (3 of 7 starts vs 1 of 6 for Darius). **Pick:** Bam Adebayo (MIA) to score the first basket **Also consider:** Darius Garland (LAC) ## Related Guides - [First Basket Betting Guide](/blog/nba-first-basket-betting-guide) - [NBA DVP Matchups Explained](/blog/nba-dvp-matchups-explained) - [NBA Dashboard Quickstart](/blog/nba-dashboard-quickstart-for-beginners) ## Before You Lock Confirm lineups on the [First Basket dashboard](/nba/first-basket); starters can change up to 2 hours before tip. A late scratch changes who takes the first shot, so recheck any pick whose team is listed as questionable. For the complete breakdown of our scoring methodology, tipoff analysis, and bankroll strategy, see the [First Basket Betting Guide](/blog/nba-first-basket-betting-guide). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Live First Basket Dashboard](/nba/first-basket): real time data for all tonight's starters - [Streak Plays Tonight](/nba/streaks): players on hot streaks vs their lines - [First Basket Betting Guide](/blog/nba-first-basket-betting-guide): full methodology *Picks update as lineups confirm. Bookmark [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io) for today's full slate.* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [NBA Props Hub](/blog/topic/nba-props) - Daily stream: [NBA First Basket Picks](/blog/stream/nba-first-basket-picks) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*