# NBA First Basket Picks Today: November 2, 2026 (Every Game) > First basket picks for November 2, 2026, game by game. Tip-off records, shot volume, and first shot rates across 15 games. Bam Adebayo leads. **Date:** 2026-11-02 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** First Basket, NBA, Daily Picks, Player Props, Betting Strategy **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/nba-first-basket-picks-nov-2-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best NBA first basket picks for Monday, November 2, 2026** are Bam Adebayo (Score: 91, 12.5 shots per game, first shot in 50.0% of starts), Victor Wembanyama (Score: 70, 22 shots per game, first shot in 16.7% of starts), John Collins (Score: 70, 9.2 shots per game, first shot in 33.3% of starts). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's ten factor composite scoring model, updated daily. # NBA First Basket Picks Today: November 2, 2026 There are 15 NBA games tonight, and I have a first basket pick for every one of them. For each game I start with the opening tip, then look for the starter who is most likely to get the first shot and has the volume to make it count. It is early in the season, so the first basket rates are small samples. I am weighting shot volume and role more heavily until the numbers settle. > [First Basket dashboard](/nba/first-basket): live lineup confirmations before locks. > **Yesterday's picks:** [NBA First Basket Picks: November 1](/blog/nba-first-basket-picks-nov-1-2026) ## Tonight's First Basket Picks at a Glance | Game | Tip (ET) | Pick | First Shot % | First Baskets | PPG / FGA | |------|----------|------|--------------|---------------|-----------| | OKC @ CLE | 7:00 PM | Jarrett Allen (CLE) | 33.3% | 2/6 | 15.3 / 9.2 | | DET @ CHA | 7:30 PM | John Collins (DET) | 33.3% | 3/6 | 9.2 / 9.2 | | ATL @ IND | 7:30 PM | Jalen Johnson (ATL) | 14.3% | 1/7 | 18.3 / 15.3 | | BKN @ NY | 7:30 PM | Karl-Anthony Towns (NYK) | 33.3% | 1/6 | 21.8 / 14.5 | | WSH @ ORL | 7:30 PM | Wendell Carter Jr. (ORL) | 50.0% | 2/6 | 13.5 / 7.7 | | CHI @ PHI | 7:30 PM | VJ Edgecombe (PHI) | 33.3% | 1/6 | 11.3 / 11.2 | | SAC @ DAL | 8:00 PM | De'Andre Hunter (SAC) | 33.3% | 1/6 | 14 / 10 | | NO @ MEM | 8:00 PM | Zach Edey (MEM) | 20.0% | 2/5 | 7 / 5.2 | | MIL @ MIN | 8:00 PM | Jaden McDaniels (MIN) | 0.0% | 2/7 | 17.3 / 13.4 | | BOS @ HOU | 8:30 PM | Jayson Tatum (BOS) | 16.7% | 2/6 | 28.3 / 20.8 | | UTAH @ SA | 8:30 PM | Victor Wembanyama (SAS) | 16.7% | 2/6 | 28 / 22 | | POR @ DEN | 9:00 PM | Damian Lillard (POR) | 20.0% | 1/5 | 19.2 / 14.4 | | PHX @ GS | 10:00 PM | Miles Bridges (PHO) | 0.0% | 1/4 | 16.3 / 14.5 | | TOR @ LAC | 10:00 PM | RJ Barrett (TOR) | 20.0% | 2/5 | 19.8 / 16.2 | | MIA @ LAL | 10:00 PM | Bam Adebayo (MIA) | 50.0% | 3/6 | 16.3 / 12.5 | ## Thunder vs. Cavaliers First Basket Pick *7:00 PM ET · NBCSN · Total 229.5* The Thunder are 4 for 6 on opening tips this season, and the Cavaliers are 4 for 6. Jarrett is averaging 9.2 shots and 15.3 points a night, and the CLE have run their first look through him in 2 of 6 starts. It is early, 2 first baskets in 6 starts, so size this one small. **Pick:** Jarrett Allen (CLE) to score the first basket **Also consider:** Isaiah Hartenstein (OKC) ## Pistons vs. Hornets First Basket Pick *7:30 PM ET · NBA League Pass · Total 210.5* The Pistons are 1 for 6 on opening tips this season, and the Hornets are 1 for 7. John is averaging 9.2 shots and 9.2 points a night, and the DET have run their first look through him in 2 of 6 starts. He has scored the first basket in 3 of 6 starts so far. That is an early sample, so treat this as a lean, not a lock. **Pick:** John Collins (DET) to score the first basket **Also consider:** Dennis Schroder (CHA) ## Hawks vs. Pacers First Basket Pick *7:30 PM ET · NBA League Pass · Total 229.5* The Hawks are 2 for 7 on opening tips this season, and the Pacers are 3 for 7. Jalen is averaging 15.3 shots and 18.3 points a night, and the ATL have run their first look through him in 1 of 7 starts. He has scored the first basket in 1 of 7 starts so far. That is an early sample, so I am leaning on the shot volume more than the rate. **Pick:** Jalen Johnson (ATL) to score the first basket > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [First Basket dashboard](/nba/first-basket). ## Nets vs. Knicks First Basket Pick *7:30 PM ET · NBA League Pass · Total 218.5* The Nets are 4 for 6 on opening tips this season, and the Knicks are 3 for 6. The volume is there for Karl-Anthony: 14.5 field goal attempts and 21.8 points a game, with the first shot of the night in 2 of 6 starts. He has scored the first basket in 1 of 6 starts so far. That is an early sample, so I am leaning on the shot volume more than the rate. **Pick:** Karl-Anthony Towns (NYK) to score the first basket **Also consider:** Day'Ron Sharpe (BKN) ## Wizards vs. Magic First Basket Pick *7:30 PM ET · MNMT · Total 225.5* The Wizards are 4 for 6 on opening tips this season, and the Magic are 5 for 6. Wendell is averaging 7.7 shots and 13.5 points a night, and the ORL have run their first look through him in 3 of 6 starts. It is early, 2 first baskets in 6 starts, so size this one small. The chalk in this game is Trae Young at 20.7 points a night. I would rather take Wendell, since he gets the first look more often (3 of 6 starts vs 1 of 6 for Trae). **Pick:** Wendell Carter Jr. (ORL) to score the first basket **Also consider:** Trae Young (WAS) ## Bulls vs. 76ers First Basket Pick *7:30 PM ET · NBA League Pass · Total 239.5* The Bulls are 1 for 6 on opening tips this season, and the 76ers are 5 for 7. The tip edge leans 76ers, and the first possession is half the battle in this market. The volume is there for VJ: 11.2 field goal attempts and 11.3 points a game, with the first shot of the night in 2 of 6 starts. He has scored the first basket in 1 of 6 starts so far. That is an early sample, so treat this as a lean, not a lock. The matchup helps too: the CHI rank 8th in points allowed to Gs (30.4 a game). **Pick:** VJ Edgecombe (PHI) to score the first basket **Also consider:** Jalen Smith (CHI) ## Kings vs. Mavericks First Basket Pick *8:00 PM ET · NBA League Pass · Total 231.5* The Kings are 4 for 6 on opening tips this season, and the Mavericks are 1 for 6. That gives the Kings the better shot at the first possession, which is where I want my pick. De'Andre is averaging 10 shots and 14 points a night, and the SAC have run their first look through him in 2 of 6 starts. It is early, 1 first basket in 6 starts, so size this one small. The matchup helps too: the DAL rank 3rd in points allowed to Fs (25.6 a game). The chalk in this game is Cooper Flagg at 26.8 points a night. I would rather take De'Andre, since he gets the first look more often (2 of 6 starts vs 0 of 5 for Cooper). **Pick:** De'Andre Hunter (SAC) to score the first basket **Also consider:** Cooper Flagg (DAL) ## Pelicans vs. Grizzlies First Basket Pick *8:00 PM ET · NBA League Pass · Total 232.5* The Pelicans are 0 for 6 on opening tips this season, and the Grizzlies are 3 for 6. The tip edge leans Grizzlies, and the first possession is half the battle in this market. Zach is averaging 5.2 shots and 7 points a night, and the MEM have run their first look through him in 1 of 5 starts. He has scored the first basket in 2 of 5 starts so far. That is an early sample, so treat this as a lean, not a lock. The matchup helps too: the NOR rank 6th in points allowed to Cs (24.8 a game). Trey Murphy III (14.3 PPG) is the name most people will reach for here, and he will likely be priced like it. I am going with Zach because he gets the first look more often (1 of 5 starts vs 0 of 6 for Trey). **Pick:** Zach Edey (MEM) to score the first basket **Also consider:** Trey Murphy III (NOR) ## Bucks vs. Timberwolves First Basket Pick *8:00 PM ET · NBA League Pass · Total 231.5* The Bucks are 2 for 6 on opening tips this season, and the Timberwolves are 2 for 7. Jaden is averaging 13.4 shots and 17.3 points a night, and the MIN have run their first look through him in 0 of 7 starts. It is early, 2 first baskets in 7 starts, so the volume is doing more of the work here than the hit rate. **Pick:** Jaden McDaniels (MIN) to score the first basket **Also consider:** Jaime Jaquez Jr. (MIL) ## Celtics vs. Rockets First Basket Pick *8:30 PM ET · NBA League Pass · Total 214.5* The Celtics are 5 for 6 on opening tips this season, and the Rockets are 4 for 7. The tip edge leans Celtics, and the first possession is half the battle in this market. Jayson is averaging 20.8 shots and 28.3 points a night, and the BOS have run their first look through him in 1 of 6 starts. He has scored the first basket in 2 of 6 starts so far. That is an early sample, so I am leaning on the shot volume more than the rate. **Pick:** Jayson Tatum (BOS) to score the first basket **Also consider:** Amen Thompson (HOU) ## Jazz vs. Spurs First Basket Pick *8:30 PM ET · NBA League Pass · Total 228.5* The Jazz are 1 for 6 on opening tips this season, and the Spurs are 6 for 6. The tip edge leans Spurs, and the first possession is half the battle in this market. The volume is there for Victor: 22 field goal attempts and 28 points a game, with the first shot of the night in 1 of 6 starts. He has scored the first basket in 2 of 6 starts so far. That is an early sample, so I am leaning on the shot volume more than the rate. **Pick:** Victor Wembanyama (SAS) to score the first basket **Also consider:** Ace Bailey (UTH) ## Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets First Basket Pick *9:00 PM ET · NBA League Pass · Total 231.5* The Trail Blazers are 4 for 5 on opening tips this season, and the Nuggets are 3 for 5. Damian Lillard is putting up 19.2 points on 14.4 shots a game, and he has taken the opening shot in 1 of 5 starts. It is early, 1 first basket in 5 starts, so the volume is doing more of the work here than the hit rate. **Pick:** Damian Lillard (POR) to score the first basket **Also consider:** Nikola Jokic (DEN) ## Suns vs. Warriors First Basket Pick *10:00 PM ET · NBA League Pass · Total 227.5* The Suns are 3 for 4 on opening tips this season, and the Warriors are 2 for 7. That gives the Suns the better shot at the first possession, which is where I want my pick. The volume is there for Miles: 14.5 field goal attempts and 16.3 points a game, with the first shot of the night in 0 of 4 starts. It is early, 1 first basket in 4 starts, so the volume is doing more of the work here than the hit rate. The chalk in this game is Yaxel Lendeborg at 22.3 points a night. I would rather take Miles, since his overall profile grades out better in the model, and he will not carry the shortest price. **Pick:** Miles Bridges (PHO) to score the first basket **Also consider:** Yaxel Lendeborg (GSW) ## Raptors vs. Clippers First Basket Pick *10:00 PM ET · NBA League Pass · Total 219.5* The Raptors are 3 for 6 on opening tips this season, and the Clippers are 0 for 6. That gives the Raptors the better shot at the first possession, which is where I want my pick. RJ is averaging 16.2 shots and 19.8 points a night, and the TOR have run their first look through him in 1 of 5 starts. It is early, 2 first baskets in 5 starts, so the volume is doing more of the work here than the hit rate. **Pick:** RJ Barrett (TOR) to score the first basket **Also consider:** Isaiah Jackson (LAC) ## Heat vs. Lakers First Basket Pick *10:00 PM ET · NBA League Pass · Total 236.5 · Top play of the night* The Heat are 6 for 6 on opening tips this season, and the Lakers are 4 for 7. The tip edge leans Heat, and the first possession is half the battle in this market. The volume is there for Bam: 12.5 field goal attempts and 16.3 points a game, with the first shot of the night in 3 of 6 starts. He has scored the first basket in 3 of 6 starts so far. That is an early sample, so I am leaning on the shot volume more than the rate. **Pick:** Bam Adebayo (MIA) to score the first basket ## Related Guides - [First Basket Betting Guide](/blog/nba-first-basket-betting-guide) - [NBA DVP Matchups Explained](/blog/nba-dvp-matchups-explained) - [NBA Dashboard Quickstart](/blog/nba-dashboard-quickstart-for-beginners) ## Before You Lock Confirm lineups on the [First Basket dashboard](/nba/first-basket); starters can change up to 2 hours before tip. A late scratch changes who takes the first shot, so recheck any pick whose team is listed as questionable. For the complete breakdown of our scoring methodology, tipoff analysis, and bankroll strategy, see the [First Basket Betting Guide](/blog/nba-first-basket-betting-guide). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Live First Basket Dashboard](/nba/first-basket): real time data for all tonight's starters - [Streak Plays Tonight](/nba/streaks): players on hot streaks vs their lines - [First Basket Betting Guide](/blog/nba-first-basket-betting-guide): full methodology *Picks update as lineups confirm. Bookmark [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io) for today's full slate.* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [NBA Props Hub](/blog/topic/nba-props) - Daily stream: [NBA First Basket Picks](/blog/stream/nba-first-basket-picks) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*