# NBA First Basket Picks Today: November 11, 2026 (Every Game) > First basket picks for November 11, 2026, game by game. Tip-off records, shot volume, and first shot rates across 10 games. De'Aaron Fox leads. **Date:** 2026-11-11 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** First Basket, NBA, Daily Picks, Player Props, Betting Strategy **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/nba-first-basket-picks-nov-11-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best NBA first basket picks for Wednesday, November 11, 2026** are De'Aaron Fox (Score: 93, 8.5 shots per game, first shot in 18.2% of starts), Jarrett Allen (Score: 75, 7.9 shots per game, first shot in 33.3% of starts), Jamal Murray (Score: 72, 16.9 shots per game, first shot in 33.3% of starts). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's ten factor composite scoring model, updated daily. # NBA First Basket Picks Today: November 11, 2026 There are 10 NBA games tonight, and I have a first basket pick for every one of them. For each game I start with the opening tip, then look for the starter who is most likely to get the first shot and has the volume to make it count. It is early in the season, so the first basket rates are small samples. I am weighting shot volume and role more heavily until the numbers settle. > [First Basket dashboard](/nba/first-basket): live lineup confirmations before locks. > **Yesterday's picks:** [NBA First Basket Picks: November 10](/blog/nba-first-basket-picks-nov-10-2026) ## Tonight's First Basket Picks at a Glance | Game | Tip (ET) | Pick | First Shot % | First Baskets | PPG / FGA | |------|----------|------|--------------|---------------|-----------| | WSH @ IND | 7:00 PM | Pascal Siakam (IND) | 20.0% | 2/10 | 22.2 / 16.3 | | CLE @ NY | 7:00 PM | Jarrett Allen (CLE) | 33.3% | 3/9 | 13.1 / 7.9 | | BOS @ TOR | 7:00 PM | Ja'Kobe Walter (TOR) | 25.0% | 2/8 | 11 / 9.3 | | SA @ CHI | 8:00 PM | De'Aaron Fox (SAS) | 18.2% | 4/11 | 13.9 / 8.5 | | DEN @ MEM | 8:00 PM | Jamal Murray (DEN) | 33.3% | 2/9 | 25.8 / 16.9 | | LAL @ MIL | 8:00 PM | Jaime Jaquez Jr. (MIL) | 9.1% | 3/11 | 15.3 / 11.7 | | BKN @ NO | 8:00 PM | Michael Porter Jr. (BKN) | 20.0% | 2/10 | 21.5 / 15.5 | | ORL @ UTAH | 9:00 PM | Wendell Carter Jr. (ORL) | 30.0% | 2/10 | 14.1 / 8.2 | | GS @ HOU | 9:30 PM | Brandin Podziemski (GSW) | 22.2% | 2/9 | 16.8 / 12.7 | | OKC @ POR | 10:00 PM | Damian Lillard (POR) | 20.0% | 3/10 | 20 / 13.6 | ## Wizards vs. Pacers First Basket Pick *7:00 PM ET · MNMT · Total 228.5* The Wizards are 7 for 11 on opening tips this season, and the Pacers are 5 for 11. Pascal Siakam is putting up 22.2 points on 16.3 shots a game, and he has taken the opening shot in 20.0% of his starts. That role has produced 2 first baskets over 10 starts (20.0%). **Pick:** Pascal Siakam (IND) to score the first basket **Also consider:** Alex Sarr (WAS) ## Cavaliers vs. Knicks First Basket Pick *7:00 PM ET · ESPN · Total 221.5* The Cavaliers are 9 for 11 on opening tips this season, and the Knicks are 5 for 10. That gives the Cavaliers the better shot at the first possession, which is where I want my pick. Jarrett is averaging 7.9 shots and 13.1 points a night, and the CLE have run their first look through him in 3 of 9 starts. It is early, 3 first baskets in 9 starts, so size this one small. The chalk in this game is Jalen Brunson at 25.9 points a night. I would rather take Jarrett, since he is on the side more likely to win the tip. **Pick:** Jarrett Allen (CLE) to score the first basket **Also consider:** Jalen Brunson (NYK) ## Celtics vs. Raptors First Basket Pick *7:00 PM ET · Total 215.5* The Celtics are 7 for 11 on opening tips this season, and the Raptors are 7 for 10. Ja'Kobe Walter is putting up 11 points on 9.3 shots a game, and he has taken the opening shot in 2 of 8 starts. It is early, 2 first baskets in 8 starts, so size this one small. The chalk in this game is Jayson Tatum at 26.5 points a night. I would rather take Ja'Kobe, since he gets the first look more often (2 of 8 starts vs 10.0% for Jayson). **Pick:** Ja'Kobe Walter (TOR) to score the first basket **Also consider:** Jayson Tatum (BOS) > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [First Basket dashboard](/nba/first-basket). ## Spurs vs. Bulls First Basket Pick *8:00 PM ET · DAZN SAS · Total 238.5 · Top play of the night* The Spurs are 10 for 11 on opening tips this season, and the Bulls are 2 for 9. That gives the Spurs the better shot at the first possession, which is where I want my pick. De'Aaron Fox is putting up 13.9 points on 8.5 shots a game, and he has taken the opening shot in 18.2% of his starts. That role has produced 4 first baskets over 11 starts (36.4%). The matchup helps too: the CHI rank 7th in points allowed to Gs (28.7 a game). **Pick:** De'Aaron Fox (SAS) to score the first basket **Also consider:** Jalen Smith (CHI) ## Nuggets vs. Grizzlies First Basket Pick *8:00 PM ET · Total 229.5* The Nuggets are 4 for 9 on opening tips this season, and the Grizzlies are 5 for 10. Jamal is averaging 16.9 shots and 25.8 points a night, and the DEN have run their first look through him in 3 of 9 starts. He has scored the first basket in 2 of 9 starts so far. That is an early sample, so I am leaning on the shot volume more than the rate. The matchup helps too: the MEM rank 8th in points allowed to Gs (28.5 a game). **Pick:** Jamal Murray (DEN) to score the first basket **Also consider:** Zach Edey (MEM) ## Lakers vs. Bucks First Basket Pick *8:00 PM ET · Spectrum Sports Net · Total 228.5* The Lakers are 6 for 12 on opening tips this season, and the Bucks are 4 for 11. The volume is there for Jaime: 11.7 field goal attempts and 15.3 points a game, with the first shot of the night in 9.1% of his starts. That role has produced 3 first baskets over 11 starts (27.3%). **Pick:** Jaime Jaquez Jr. (MIL) to score the first basket **Also consider:** Walker Kessler (LAL) ## Nets vs. Pelicans First Basket Pick *8:00 PM ET · DAZN (YES) · Total 228.5* The Nets are 5 for 10 on opening tips this season, and the Pelicans are 2 for 11. The tip edge leans Nets, and the first possession is half the battle in this market. Michael Porter Jr. is putting up 21.5 points on 15.5 shots a game, and he has taken the opening shot in 20.0% of his starts. He has turned that into 2 first baskets in 10 starts, a 20.0% rate. **Pick:** Michael Porter Jr. (BKN) to score the first basket **Also consider:** Zion Williamson (NOR) ## Magic vs. Jazz First Basket Pick *9:00 PM ET · KJZZ-TV · Total 214.5* The Magic are 7 for 10 on opening tips this season, and the Jazz are 3 for 11. That gives the Magic the better shot at the first possession, which is where I want my pick. Wendell is averaging 8.2 shots and 14.1 points a night, and the ORL have run their first look through him in 30.0% of his starts. That role has produced 2 first baskets over 10 starts (20.0%). **Pick:** Wendell Carter Jr. (ORL) to score the first basket **Also consider:** Ace Bailey (UTH) ## Warriors vs. Rockets First Basket Pick *9:30 PM ET · ESPN · Total 219.5* The Warriors are 3 for 11 on opening tips this season, and the Rockets are 6 for 11. The tip leans Rockets, so my pick has to beat the possession math, and the case below is why I think he can. Brandin Podziemski is putting up 16.8 points on 12.7 shots a game, and he has taken the opening shot in 2 of 9 starts. He has scored the first basket in 2 of 9 starts so far. That is an early sample, so I am leaning on the shot volume more than the rate. Alperen Sengun (21.3 PPG) is the name most people will reach for here, and he will likely be priced like it. I am going with Brandin because he gets the first look more often (2 of 9 starts vs 1 of 9 for Alperen). **Pick:** Brandin Podziemski (GSW) to score the first basket **Also consider:** Alperen Sengun (HOU) ## Thunder vs. Trail Blazers First Basket Pick *10:00 PM ET · KUNP 16 · Total 225.5* The Thunder are 5 for 11 on opening tips this season, and the Trail Blazers are 7 for 10. Damian Lillard is putting up 20 points on 13.6 shots a game, and he has taken the opening shot in 20.0% of his starts. That role has produced 3 first baskets over 10 starts (30.0%). **Pick:** Damian Lillard (POR) to score the first basket **Also consider:** Isaiah Hartenstein (OKC) ## Related Guides - [First Basket Betting Guide](/blog/nba-first-basket-betting-guide) - [NBA DVP Matchups Explained](/blog/nba-dvp-matchups-explained) - [NBA Dashboard Quickstart](/blog/nba-dashboard-quickstart-for-beginners) ## Before You Lock Confirm lineups on the [First Basket dashboard](/nba/first-basket); starters can change up to 2 hours before tip. A late scratch changes who takes the first shot, so recheck any pick whose team is listed as questionable. For the complete breakdown of our scoring methodology, tipoff analysis, and bankroll strategy, see the [First Basket Betting Guide](/blog/nba-first-basket-betting-guide). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Live First Basket Dashboard](/nba/first-basket): real time data for all tonight's starters - [Streak Plays Tonight](/nba/streaks): players on hot streaks vs their lines - [First Basket Betting Guide](/blog/nba-first-basket-betting-guide): full methodology *Picks update as lineups confirm. Bookmark [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io) for today's full slate.* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [NBA Props Hub](/blog/topic/nba-props) - Daily stream: [NBA First Basket Picks](/blog/stream/nba-first-basket-picks) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*