# NBA First Basket Picks Today: November 10, 2026 (Every Game) > Who scores first tonight? A first basket pick for each of the 6 NBA games, built on tip-off wins, shots per game, and first shot share. Updated daily. **Date:** 2026-11-10 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** First Basket, NBA, Daily Picks, Player Props, Betting Strategy **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/nba-first-basket-picks-nov-10-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best NBA first basket picks for Tuesday, November 10, 2026** are Bam Adebayo (Score: 90, 13.2 shots per game, first shot in 40.0% of starts), Wendell Carter Jr. (Score: 70, 8.1 shots per game, first shot in 33.3% of starts), Jaime Jaquez Jr. (Score: 69, 11.6 shots per game, first shot in 10.0% of starts). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's ten factor composite scoring model, updated daily. # NBA First Basket Picks Today: November 10, 2026 There are 6 NBA games tonight, and I have a first basket pick for every one of them. For each game I start with the opening tip, then look for the starter who is most likely to get the first shot and has the volume to make it count. It is early in the season, so the first basket rates are small samples. I am weighting shot volume and role more heavily until the numbers settle. > [First Basket dashboard](/nba/first-basket): live lineup confirmations before locks. > **Yesterday's picks:** [NBA First Basket Picks: November 9](/blog/nba-first-basket-picks-nov-9-2026) ## Tonight's First Basket Picks at a Glance | Game | Tip (ET) | Pick | First Shot % | First Baskets | PPG / FGA | |------|----------|------|--------------|---------------|-----------| | MIL @ NY | 7:30 PM | Jaime Jaquez Jr. (MIL) | 10.0% | 3/10 | 15.2 / 11.6 | | BOS @ PHI | 8:00 PM | Jayson Tatum (BOS) | 11.1% | 3/9 | 27.1 / 19.6 | | LAC @ PHX | 9:00 PM | Devin Booker (PHO) | 0.0% | 2/9 | 26 / 18.2 | | MIA @ UTAH | 9:00 PM | Bam Adebayo (MIA) | 40.0% | 4/10 | 18.5 / 13.2 | | ORL @ SAC | 10:00 PM | Wendell Carter Jr. (ORL) | 33.3% | 2/9 | 14.8 / 8.1 | | OKC @ POR | 11:00 PM | Damian Lillard (POR) | 22.2% | 2/9 | 19.4 / 13.4 | ## Bucks vs. Knicks First Basket Pick *7:30 PM ET · MyMi · Total 222.5* The Bucks are 3 for 10 on opening tips this season, and the Knicks are 5 for 9. The tip leans Knicks, so my pick has to beat the possession math, and the case below is why I think he can. Jaime Jaquez Jr. is putting up 15.2 points on 11.6 shots a game, and he has taken the opening shot in 10.0% of his starts. He has turned that into 3 first baskets in 10 starts, a 30.0% rate. The matchup helps too: the NYK rank 8th in points allowed to Fs (22.7 a game). Jalen Brunson (26.2 PPG) is the name most people will reach for here, and he will likely be priced like it. I am going with Jaime because his overall profile grades out better in the model, and he will not carry the shortest price. **Pick:** Jaime Jaquez Jr. (MIL) to score the first basket **Also consider:** Jalen Brunson (NYK) ## Celtics vs. 76ers First Basket Pick *8:00 PM ET · NBC · Total 216.5* The Celtics are 6 for 10 on opening tips this season, and the 76ers are 7 for 11. Jayson Tatum is putting up 27.1 points on 19.6 shots a game, and he has taken the opening shot in 1 of 9 starts. It is early, 3 first baskets in 9 starts, so the volume is doing more of the work here than the hit rate. **Pick:** Jayson Tatum (BOS) to score the first basket **Also consider:** VJ Edgecombe (PHI) ## Clippers vs. Suns First Basket Pick *9:00 PM ET · Suns Live · Total 224.5* The Clippers are 2 for 9 on opening tips this season, and the Suns are 4 for 9. The volume is there for Devin: 18.2 field goal attempts and 26 points a game, with the first shot of the night in 0 of 9 starts. He has scored the first basket in 2 of 9 starts so far. That is an early sample, so I am leaning on the shot volume more than the rate. The matchup helps too: the LAC rank 5th in points allowed to Gs (29.7 a game). **Pick:** Devin Booker (PHO) to score the first basket **Also consider:** Darius Garland (LAC) > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [First Basket dashboard](/nba/first-basket). ## Heat vs. Jazz First Basket Pick *9:00 PM ET · KJZZ-TV · Total 227.5 · Top play of the night* The Heat are 9 for 10 on opening tips this season, and the Jazz are 2 for 10. That gives the Heat the better shot at the first possession, which is where I want my pick. Bam is averaging 13.2 shots and 18.5 points a night, and the MIA have run their first look through him in 40.0% of his starts. That role has produced 4 first baskets over 10 starts (40.0%). **Pick:** Bam Adebayo (MIA) to score the first basket **Also consider:** Ace Bailey (UTH) ## Magic vs. Kings First Basket Pick *10:00 PM ET · Total 223.5* The Magic are 7 for 9 on opening tips this season, and the Kings are 5 for 10. The tip edge leans Magic, and the first possession is half the battle in this market. The volume is there for Wendell: 8.1 field goal attempts and 14.8 points a game, with the first shot of the night in 3 of 9 starts. He has scored the first basket in 2 of 9 starts so far. That is an early sample, so treat this as a lean, not a lock. The matchup helps too: the SAC rank 3rd in points allowed to Cs (28.8 a game). **Pick:** Wendell Carter Jr. (ORL) to score the first basket **Also consider:** De'Andre Hunter (SAC) ## Thunder vs. Trail Blazers First Basket Pick *11:00 PM ET · NBC · Total 225.5* The Thunder are 5 for 10 on opening tips this season, and the Trail Blazers are 6 for 9. Damian is averaging 13.4 shots and 19.4 points a night, and the POR have run their first look through him in 2 of 9 starts. He has scored the first basket in 2 of 9 starts so far. That is an early sample, so I am leaning on the shot volume more than the rate. **Pick:** Damian Lillard (POR) to score the first basket **Also consider:** Isaiah Hartenstein (OKC) ## Related Guides - [First Basket Betting Guide](/blog/nba-first-basket-betting-guide) - [NBA DVP Matchups Explained](/blog/nba-dvp-matchups-explained) - [NBA Dashboard Quickstart](/blog/nba-dashboard-quickstart-for-beginners) ## Before You Lock Confirm lineups on the [First Basket dashboard](/nba/first-basket); starters can change up to 2 hours before tip. A late scratch changes who takes the first shot, so recheck any pick whose team is listed as questionable. For the complete breakdown of our scoring methodology, tipoff analysis, and bankroll strategy, see the [First Basket Betting Guide](/blog/nba-first-basket-betting-guide). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Live First Basket Dashboard](/nba/first-basket): real time data for all tonight's starters - [Streak Plays Tonight](/nba/streaks): players on hot streaks vs their lines - [First Basket Betting Guide](/blog/nba-first-basket-betting-guide): full methodology *Picks update as lineups confirm. Bookmark [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io) for today's full slate.* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [NBA Props Hub](/blog/topic/nba-props) - Daily stream: [NBA First Basket Picks](/blog/stream/nba-first-basket-picks) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*