# NBA First Basket Picks Today (May 4, 2026) - Top Plays > Tonight's top first basket candidates across a 2-game NBA slate, ranked by 10-factor composite scoring - Victor Wembanyama leads the board. Updated daily. **Date:** 2026-05-04 **Author:** Jason Bowman **Tags:** First Basket, NBA, Daily Picks, Player Props, Betting Strategy **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/nba-first-basket-picks-may-4-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best NBA first basket picks for Monday, May 4, 2026** are Victor Wembanyama (Score: 74 — Victor Wembanyama posts a 73.5 composite score tonight), Jalen Brunson (Score: 71 — Jalen Brunson posts a 70.9 composite score tonight), Anthony Edwards (Score: 63 — Anthony Edwards posts a 62.7 composite score tonight). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's 10-factor composite scoring model, updated daily. # NBA First Basket Picks Today - May 4, 2026 Victor Wembanyama leads the board tonight. > [First Basket dashboard](/nba/first-basket) - live lineup confirmations before locks. > **Yesterday's picks:** [NBA First Basket Picks - May 3](/blog/nba-first-basket-picks-may-3-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - PHI @ NY - MIN @ SA ## Pick 1: Victor Wembanyama — MIN @ SAS *20.7% FB rate · 27.6% first shot · 77.0% tip win · L10 1/10 (10.0%) · DvP 11th vs Cs* **Top first-basket play tonight.** Victor is the play because the structure is the play: SAS wins 77.0% of opening tips, Victor takes 27.6% of first shots. He scores first 20.7% of the time. Worth flagging: 0-of-5 on first baskets recently. Treat this as a regression-to-mean play, not a heater. ## Pick 2: Jalen Brunson — PHI @ NYK *21.3% FB rate · 23.8% first shot · 53.4% tip win · L10 3/10 (30.0%) · DvP 28th vs Gs* 17 first baskets in 80 starts is a 21.3% rate — the kind of stable signal that rewards repetition. Recent form lines up — 3 of his last 5 starts ended with him scoring first. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [First Basket dashboard](/nba/first-basket). ## Pick 3: Anthony Edwards — MIN @ SAS *23.8% FB rate · 14.3% first shot · 54.5% tip win · L10 N/A · DvP 18th vs Gs* Anthony Edwards's 23.8% first-basket rate over 63 starts is a settled number, not a small-sample mirage. One wrinkle: Anthony's road first-basket rate (16.1%) sits below his season number. Tonight is a road game, so factor that into how big you go. ## Honorable Mentions - **Kelly Oubre Jr.** (PHI) — season FB rate of 20.0%. Kelly Oubre Jr. just missed the cut at 20.0% FB rate. Worth monitoring, but PHI's tipoff rate (48.3%) limits first-possession opportunities. ## Related Guides - [First Basket Betting Guide](/blog/nba-first-basket-betting-guide) - [NBA DVP Matchups Explained](/blog/nba-dvp-matchups-explained) - [NBA Dashboard Quickstart](/blog/nba-dashboard-quickstart-for-beginners) ## Before You Lock Confirm lineups on the [First Basket dashboard](/nba/first-basket) - starters can change up to 2 hours before tip. Check sportsbook odds against each player's actual first basket rate to see where the line has value. For the complete breakdown of our scoring methodology, tipoff analysis, and bankroll strategy, see the [First Basket Betting Guide](/blog/nba-first-basket-betting-guide). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Live First Basket Dashboard](/nba/first-basket) - real-time data for all tonight's starters - [Streak Plays Tonight](/nba/streaks) - players on hot streaks vs their lines - [First Basket Betting Guide](/blog/nba-first-basket-betting-guide) - full methodology *Picks update as lineups confirm. Bookmark [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io) for today's full slate.* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [NBA Props Hub](/blog/topic/nba-props) - Daily stream: [NBA First Basket Picks](/blog/stream/nba-first-basket-picks) - Author: [Jason Bowman](/blog/author/jason-bowman) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*