# NBA First Basket Picks Today (May 10, 2026) - Top Plays > Data-backed first basket picks for tonight's 2-game NBA slate. Composite scoring across tipoff tendencies, first-shot rates, and defensive matchups. **Date:** 2026-05-10 **Author:** Jason Bowman **Tags:** First Basket, NBA, Daily Picks, Player Props, Betting Strategy **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/nba-first-basket-picks-may-10-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best NBA first basket picks for Sunday, May 10, 2026** are Victor Wembanyama (Score: 98 — Victor Wembanyama posts a 97.5 composite score tonight), Jalen Brunson (Score: 58 — Jalen Brunson posts a 58.3 composite score tonight), Anthony Edwards (Score: 58 — Anthony Edwards posts a 58.2 composite score tonight). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's 10-factor composite scoring model, updated daily. # NBA First Basket Picks Today - May 10, 2026 Only 2 games tonight. Thin slate, sharper focus. > [First Basket dashboard](/nba/first-basket) - live lineup confirmations before locks. > **Yesterday's picks:** [NBA First Basket Picks - May 9](/blog/nba-first-basket-picks-may-9-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - NY @ PHI - SA @ MIN ## Pick 1: Victor Wembanyama — SAS @ MIN *24.6% FB rate · 27.9% first shot · 76.7% tip win · L10 4/10 (40.0%) · DvP 10th vs Cs* **Top first-basket play tonight.** Victor is the play because the structure is the play: SAS wins 76.7% of opening tips, Victor takes 27.9% of first shots. He scores first 24.6% of the time. Recent form lines up — 3 of his last 5 starts ended with him scoring first. MIN ranks 10th in points surrendered to Cs (23.0 PPG), which softens the opening-possession look. ## Pick 2: Jalen Brunson — NYK @ PHI *20.5% FB rate · 22.9% first shot · 52.7% tip win · L10 3/10 (30.0%) · DvP 28th vs Gs* 17 first baskets in 83 starts is a 20.5% rate — the kind of stable signal that rewards repetition. Caveat: he's been cold lately — only 1 first basket in his last 5. The season rate is the lean, but size accordingly. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [First Basket dashboard](/nba/first-basket). ## Pick 3: Anthony Edwards — SAS @ MIN *23.4% FB rate · 14.1% first shot · 53.8% tip win · L10 N/A · DvP 22nd vs Gs* Anthony is meaningfully better at home: 31.3% first-basket rate vs 23.4% overall. He's home tonight, which adds 7.9 percentage points to an already-solid baseline. ## Honorable Mentions - **Kelly Oubre Jr.** (PHI) — season FB rate of 22.9%. Kelly Oubre Jr. just missed the cut at 22.9% FB rate. Worth monitoring, but PHI's tipoff rate (48.9%) limits first-possession opportunities. ## Related Guides - [First Basket Betting Guide](/blog/nba-first-basket-betting-guide) - [NBA DVP Matchups Explained](/blog/nba-dvp-matchups-explained) - [NBA Dashboard Quickstart](/blog/nba-dashboard-quickstart-for-beginners) ## Before You Lock Confirm lineups on the [First Basket dashboard](/nba/first-basket) - starters can change up to 2 hours before tip. Check sportsbook odds against each player's actual first basket rate to see where the line has value. For the complete breakdown of our scoring methodology, tipoff analysis, and bankroll strategy, see the [First Basket Betting Guide](/blog/nba-first-basket-betting-guide). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Live First Basket Dashboard](/nba/first-basket) - real-time data for all tonight's starters - [Streak Plays Tonight](/nba/streaks) - players on hot streaks vs their lines - [First Basket Betting Guide](/blog/nba-first-basket-betting-guide) - full methodology *Picks update as lineups confirm. Bookmark [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io) for today's full slate.* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [NBA Props Hub](/blog/topic/nba-props) - Daily stream: [NBA First Basket Picks](/blog/stream/nba-first-basket-picks) - Author: [Jason Bowman](/blog/author/jason-bowman) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*