# NBA First Basket Picks Today (March 26, 2026) - Top Plays

> First basket picks for March 26, 2026 - 3 games scored across 10 factors including tip-off advantage, first-shot usage, and opponent defense.

**Date:** 2026-03-26  
**Author:** HeatCheck HQ  
**Tags:** First Basket, NBA, Daily Picks, Player Props, Betting Strategy  
**Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/nba-first-basket-picks-mar-26-2026  
**Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io

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**Today's best NBA first basket picks for Thursday, March 26, 2026** are Desmond Bane (Score: 79 — Desmond Bane posts a 79), Jalen Brunson (Score: 66 — Jalen Brunson posts a 65), Maxime Raynaud (Score: 64 — Maxime Raynaud posts a 63). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's 10-factor composite scoring model, updated daily.

# NBA First Basket Picks Today - March 26, 2026

Desmond Bane leads the board tonight.

> [First Basket dashboard](/nba/first-basket) - live lineup confirmations before locks.

> **Yesterday's picks:** [NBA First Basket Picks - March 25](/blog/nba-first-basket-picks-mar-25-2026)

## Tonight's Slate

- NY @ CHA
- NO @ DET
- SAC @ ORL

## Pick 1: Desmond Bane - SAC @ ORL

- **First Basket Rate:** 11.1% (8 FB in 72 starts)
- **First Shot Rate:** 13.9%
- **Team Tipoff Win %:** 70.8%
- **Team Rank:** 2nd
- **L10 First Basket:** 5/10 (50.0%)
- **DVP Matchup:** vs SAC (2nd in PTS allowed to Gs)

The top spot belongs to Desmond Bane. He takes the opening shot 13.9% of the time and converts first basket at a 11.1% clip. ORL wins the tip 70.8% of the time, which gives Desmond more first-possession looks than most. Recent stretch looks good: 5-for-10 in first baskets over his last window (50.0%). Add in SAC's 2nd-ranked defense against Gs and the matchup tilts further in Desmond's favor.

## Pick 2: Jalen Brunson - NYK @ CHA

- **First Basket Rate:** 19.4% (13 FB in 67 starts)
- **First Shot Rate:** 20.9%
- **Team Tipoff Win %:** 52.1%
- **Team Rank:** 1st
- **L10 First Basket:** 2/10 (20.0%)
- **DVP Matchup:** vs CHA (20th in PTS allowed to Gs)

Jalen Brunson continues to post strong numbers - 13 first baskets across 67 starts gives him a 19.4% conversion rate. He's been active recently - 2 first baskets in his last 10 games (20.0%).

> **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [First Basket dashboard](/nba/first-basket).

## Pick 3: Maxime Raynaud - SAC @ ORL

- **First Basket Rate:** 10.9% (5 FB in 46 starts)
- **First Shot Rate:** 15.2%
- **Team Tipoff Win %:** 52.1%
- **Team Rank:** 3rd
- **L10 First Basket:** 4/10 (40.0%)
- **DVP Matchup:** vs ORL (27th in PTS allowed to Cs)

Worth targeting: Maxime Raynaud at 10.9% first basket rate. He's converted 5 times in 46 starts this season. Over his last 10, Maxime has opened the scoring 4 times (40.0%).

## Honorable Mentions

- **Brandon Miller** (CHA) - 20.0% FB rate, 27.3% first shot, 44.4% tip win, L10: 1/10
- **Herbert Jones** (NOR) - 16.3% FB rate, 12.2% first shot, 23.3% tip win, L10: 2/10
- **Tobias Harris** (DET) - 13.5% FB rate, 9.6% first shot, 43.1% tip win, L10: 1/10

Brandon Miller was close - 20.0% first basket rate is legit, but CHA's tipoff rate (44.4%) limits first-possession opportunities.

## Related Guides

- [First Basket Betting Guide](/blog/nba-first-basket-betting-guide)
- [NBA DVP Matchups Explained](/blog/nba-dvp-matchups-explained)
- [NBA Dashboard Quickstart](/blog/nba-dashboard-quickstart-for-beginners)

## Before You Lock

Confirm lineups on the [First Basket dashboard](/nba/first-basket) - starters can change up to 2 hours before tip. Check sportsbook odds against each player's actual first basket rate to see where the line has value.

For the complete breakdown of our scoring methodology, tipoff analysis, and bankroll strategy, see the [First Basket Betting Guide](/blog/nba-first-basket-betting-guide).

**More from HeatCheck HQ:**
- [Live First Basket Dashboard](/nba/first-basket) - real-time data for all tonight's starters
- [DVP Mismatches Tonight](/blog/nba-dvp-mismatches-mar-26-2026) - best defensive matchups
- [Streak Plays Tonight](/nba/streaks) - players on hot streaks vs their lines
- [First Basket Betting Guide](/blog/nba-first-basket-betting-guide) - full methodology

*Picks update as lineups confirm. Bookmark [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io) for today's full slate.*

## Related Resources

- Parent hub: [NBA Props Hub](/blog/topic/nba-props)
- Daily stream: [NBA First Basket Picks](/blog/stream/nba-first-basket-picks)
- Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq)
- Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog)


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*Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*