# NBA First Basket Picks Today (March 25, 2026) - Top Plays

> Who scores first tonight? 12 NBA games analyzed through tipoff data, first-shot rates, and DVP matchups to surface the best first basket plays.

**Date:** 2026-03-25  
**Author:** HeatCheck HQ  
**Tags:** First Basket, NBA, Daily Picks, Player Props, Betting Strategy  
**Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/nba-first-basket-picks-mar-25-2026  
**Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io

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**Today's best NBA first basket picks for Wednesday, March 25, 2026** are Victor Wembanyama (Score: 82 — Victor Wembanyama posts a 82), Jamal Murray (Score: 75 — Jamal Murray posts a 75), Will Riley (Score: 72 — Will Riley posts a 71). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's 10-factor composite scoring model, updated daily.

# NBA First Basket Picks Today - March 25, 2026

Highest total tonight: 244.5. That kind of pace lifts every counting stat.

> [First Basket dashboard](/nba/first-basket) - live lineup confirmations before locks.

> **Yesterday's picks:** [NBA First Basket Picks - March 24](/blog/nba-first-basket-picks-mar-24-2026)

## Tonight's Slate

- ATL @ DET
- LAL @ IND
- CHI @ PHI
- OKC @ BOS
- MIA @ CLE
- SA @ MEM
- WSH @ UTAH
- HOU @ MIN
- DAL @ DEN
- BKN @ GS
- MIL @ POR
- TOR @ LAC

## Pick 1: Victor Wembanyama - SAS @ MEM

- **First Basket Rate:** 19.1% (9 FB in 47 starts)
- **First Shot Rate:** 21.3%
- **Team Tipoff Win %:** 75.0%
- **Team Rank:** 2nd
- **L10 First Basket:** 4/10 (40.0%)
- **DVP Matchup:** vs MEM (10th in PTS allowed to Cs)

The numbers favor Victor Wembanyama most tonight. A 19.1% first basket rate across 47 starts, combined with a 21.3% first-shot rate, puts him at the top. SAS's 75.0% tipoff rate is above average, and Victor benefits directly from those extra early possessions. Victor's recent form is trending up - he's scored first in 4 of his last 10 (40.0%). MEM also ranks 10th in points allowed to Cs - a soft matchup for Victor's early looks.

## Pick 2: Jamal Murray - DAL @ DEN

- **First Basket Rate:** 19.4% (13 FB in 67 starts)
- **First Shot Rate:** 13.4%
- **Team Tipoff Win %:** 56.2%
- **Team Rank:** 1st
- **L10 First Basket:** 4/10 (40.0%)
- **DVP Matchup:** vs DAL (10th in PTS allowed to Gs)

Don't sleep on Jamal Murray - a 19.4% first basket rate (13/67) and 13.4% first-shot rate make him a real factor tonight. DEN's 56.2% tipoff rate is above average, and Jamal benefits directly from those extra early possessions. Recent stretch looks good: 4-for-10 in first baskets over his last window (40.0%). DAL also ranks 10th in points allowed to Gs - a soft matchup for Jamal's early looks.

> **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [First Basket dashboard](/nba/first-basket).

## Pick 3: Will Riley - WAS @ UTH

- **First Basket Rate:** 27.3% (3 FB in 11 starts)
- **First Shot Rate:** 18.2%
- **Team Tipoff Win %:** 32.4%
- **Team Rank:** 4th
- **L10 First Basket:** 2/10 (20.0%)
- **DVP Matchup:** vs UTH (1st in PTS allowed to Fs)

Will Riley deserves a look - 3 first baskets in 11 starts (27.3%) with a 18.2% first-shot rate. Will's recent form is trending up - he's scored first in 2 of his last 10 (20.0%). Add in UTH's 1st-ranked defense against Fs and the matchup tilts further in Will's favor.

## Honorable Mentions

- **Bam Adebayo** (MIA) - 19.7% FB rate, 27.9% first shot, 59.7% tip win, L10: 3/10
- **Luka Doncic** (LAL) - 16.9% FB rate, 28.8% first shot, 63.9% tip win, L10: 1/10
- **Derrick Jones Jr.** (LAC) - 23.5% FB rate, 8.8% first shot, 45.8% tip win, L10: 4/10
- **Evan Mobley** (CLE) - 20.0% FB rate, 20.0% first shot, 62.5% tip win, L10: 2/10

Bam Adebayo just missed the cut at 19.7% FB rate. Worth monitoring, but the overall factor balance kept him just outside.

## Related Guides

- [First Basket Betting Guide](/blog/nba-first-basket-betting-guide)
- [NBA DVP Matchups Explained](/blog/nba-dvp-matchups-explained)
- [NBA Dashboard Quickstart](/blog/nba-dashboard-quickstart-for-beginners)

## Before You Lock

Confirm lineups on the [First Basket dashboard](/nba/first-basket) - starters can change up to 2 hours before tip. Check sportsbook odds against each player's actual first basket rate to see where the line has value.

For the complete breakdown of our scoring methodology, tipoff analysis, and bankroll strategy, see the [First Basket Betting Guide](/blog/nba-first-basket-betting-guide).

**More from HeatCheck HQ:**
- [Live First Basket Dashboard](/nba/first-basket) - real-time data for all tonight's starters
- [DVP Mismatches Tonight](/blog/nba-dvp-mismatches-mar-25-2026) - best defensive matchups
- [Streak Plays Tonight](/nba/streaks) - players on hot streaks vs their lines
- [First Basket Betting Guide](/blog/nba-first-basket-betting-guide) - full methodology

*Picks update as lineups confirm. Bookmark [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io) for today's full slate.*

## Related Resources

- Parent hub: [NBA Props Hub](/blog/topic/nba-props)
- Daily stream: [NBA First Basket Picks](/blog/stream/nba-first-basket-picks)
- Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq)
- Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog)


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*Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*