# NBA First Basket Picks Today (March 24, 2026) - Top Plays

> Tonight's top first basket candidates across a 4-game NBA slate, ranked by 10-factor composite scoring - Jalen Green leads the board. Updated daily.

**Date:** 2026-03-24  
**Author:** HeatCheck HQ  
**Tags:** First Basket, NBA, Daily Picks, Player Props, Betting Strategy  
**Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/nba-first-basket-picks-mar-24-2026  
**Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io

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**Today's best NBA first basket picks for Tuesday, March 24, 2026** are Jalen Green (Score: 82 — Jalen Green posts a 82), Jamal Murray (Score: 82 — Jamal Murray posts a 81), Jalen Brunson (Score: 69 — Jalen Brunson posts a 68). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's 10-factor composite scoring model, updated daily.

# NBA First Basket Picks Today - March 24, 2026

Jalen Green tops the board. Here's why.

> [First Basket dashboard](/nba/first-basket) - live lineup confirmations before locks.

> **Yesterday's picks:** [NBA First Basket Picks - March 23](/blog/nba-first-basket-picks-mar-23-2026)

## Tonight's Slate

- SAC @ CHA
- NO @ NY
- ORL @ CLE
- DEN @ PHX

## Pick 1: Jalen Green - DEN @ PHO

- **First Basket Rate:** 21.1% (4 FB in 19 starts)
- **First Shot Rate:** 21.1%
- **Team Tipoff Win %:** 69.4%
- **Team Rank:** 4th
- **L10 First Basket:** 4/10 (40.0%)
- **DVP Matchup:** vs DEN (23rd in PTS allowed to Gs)

Jalen Green sits atop tonight's board - 4 first baskets in 19 starts (21.1%), with a 21.1% first-shot rate that shows he's built into the opening play. Tipoff edge: PHO wins the tip 69.4% of the time. More first possessions mean more chances for Jalen. He's been active recently - 4 first baskets in his last 10 games (40.0%). Home court bumps him too - Jalen's first basket rate is 30.0% at home vs. 21.1% overall.

## Pick 2: Jamal Murray - DEN @ PHO

- **First Basket Rate:** 19.7% (13 FB in 66 starts)
- **First Shot Rate:** 13.6%
- **Team Tipoff Win %:** 56.9%
- **Team Rank:** 1st
- **L10 First Basket:** 5/10 (50.0%)
- **DVP Matchup:** vs PHO (24th in PTS allowed to Gs)

Jamal Murray continues to post strong numbers - 13 first baskets across 66 starts gives him a 19.7% conversion rate. It helps that DEN controls the opening tip at a 56.9% clip - that's more chances for Jamal to get the first shot up. He's been active recently - 5 first baskets in his last 10 games (50.0%).

> **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [First Basket dashboard](/nba/first-basket).

## Pick 3: Jalen Brunson - NOR @ NYK

- **First Basket Rate:** 19.7% (13 FB in 66 starts)
- **First Shot Rate:** 21.2%
- **Team Tipoff Win %:** 52.8%
- **Team Rank:** 1st
- **L10 First Basket:** 2/10 (20.0%)
- **DVP Matchup:** vs NOR (15th in PTS allowed to Gs)

Jalen Brunson is another strong look tonight. He's hit first basket in 13 of 66 starts (19.7%). In his last 10 games, Jalen has 2 first baskets - a 20.0% clip.

## Honorable Mentions

- **Evan Mobley** (CLE) - 20.4% FB rate, 20.4% first shot, 63.4% tip win, L10: 2/10
- **Wendell Carter Jr.** (ORL) - 15.2% FB rate, 19.7% first shot, 69.0% tip win, L10: 3/10
- **Brandon Miller** (CHA) - 20.4% FB rate, 27.8% first shot, 45.1% tip win, L10: 1/10
- **Maxime Raynaud** (SAC) - 8.9% FB rate, 13.3% first shot, 51.4% tip win, L10: 3/10

Evan Mobley just missed the cut at 20.4% FB rate. Worth monitoring, but the overall factor balance kept him just outside.

## Related Guides

- [First Basket Betting Guide](/blog/nba-first-basket-betting-guide)
- [NBA DVP Matchups Explained](/blog/nba-dvp-matchups-explained)
- [NBA Dashboard Quickstart](/blog/nba-dashboard-quickstart-for-beginners)

## Before You Lock

Confirm lineups on the [First Basket dashboard](/nba/first-basket) - starters can change up to 2 hours before tip. Check sportsbook odds against each player's actual first basket rate to see where the line has value.

For the complete breakdown of our scoring methodology, tipoff analysis, and bankroll strategy, see the [First Basket Betting Guide](/blog/nba-first-basket-betting-guide).

**More from HeatCheck HQ:**
- [Live First Basket Dashboard](/nba/first-basket) - real-time data for all tonight's starters
- [DVP Mismatches Tonight](/blog/nba-dvp-mismatches-mar-24-2026) - best defensive matchups
- [Streak Plays Tonight](/nba/streaks) - players on hot streaks vs their lines
- [First Basket Betting Guide](/blog/nba-first-basket-betting-guide) - full methodology

*Picks update as lineups confirm. Bookmark [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io) for today's full slate.*

## Related Resources

- Parent hub: [NBA Props Hub](/blog/topic/nba-props)
- Daily stream: [NBA First Basket Picks](/blog/stream/nba-first-basket-picks)
- Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq)
- Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog)


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*Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*