# NBA First Basket Picks Today (March 23, 2026) - Top Plays > Data-backed first basket picks for tonight's 10-game NBA slate. Composite scoring across tipoff tendencies, first-shot rates, and defensive matchups. **Date:** 2026-03-23 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** First Basket, NBA, Daily Picks, Player Props, Betting Strategy **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/nba-first-basket-picks-mar-23-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best NBA first basket picks for Monday, March 23, 2026** are CJ McCollum (Score: 74 — CJ McCollum posts a 74), Bam Adebayo (Score: 71 — Bam Adebayo posts a 70), Victor Wembanyama (Score: 69 — Victor Wembanyama posts a 69). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's 10-factor composite scoring model, updated daily. # NBA First Basket Picks Today - March 23, 2026 10 games tonight. Bigger slate, more matchups to exploit. > [First Basket dashboard](/nba/first-basket) - live lineup confirmations before locks. > **Yesterday's picks:** [NBA First Basket Picks - March 22](/blog/nba-first-basket-picks-mar-22-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - LAL @ DET - IND @ ORL - OKC @ PHI - SA @ MIA - MEM @ ATL - HOU @ CHI - TOR @ UTAH - GS @ DAL - BKN @ POR - MIL @ LAC ## Pick 1: CJ McCollum - MEM @ ATL - **First Basket Rate:** 26.7% (4 FB in 15 starts) - **First Shot Rate:** 20.0% - **Team Tipoff Win %:** 50.7% - **Team Rank:** 4th - **L10 First Basket:** 3/10 (30.0%) - **DVP Matchup:** vs MEM (12th in PTS allowed to Gs) Who scores first tonight? CJ McCollum has the strongest case - 26.7% conversion rate and 20.0% first-shot usage across 15 starts. Recent stretch looks good: 3-for-10 in first baskets over his last window (30.0%). Home court bumps him too - CJ's first basket rate is 50.0% at home vs. 26.7% overall. ## Pick 2: Bam Adebayo - SAS @ MIA - **First Basket Rate:** 20.0% (12 FB in 60 starts) - **First Shot Rate:** 28.3% - **Team Tipoff Win %:** 60.6% - **Team Rank:** 1st - **L10 First Basket:** 3/10 (30.0%) - **DVP Matchup:** vs SAS (17th in PTS allowed to Cs) Bam Adebayo deserves a look - 12 first baskets in 60 starts (20.0%) with a 28.3% first-shot rate. MIA wins the tip 60.6% of the time, which gives Bam more first-possession looks than most. Recent form: 3-for-10 on first baskets (30.0%), suggesting he's in rhythm early. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [First Basket dashboard](/nba/first-basket). ## Pick 3: Victor Wembanyama - SAS @ MIA - **First Basket Rate:** 17.4% (8 FB in 46 starts) - **First Shot Rate:** 19.6% - **Team Tipoff Win %:** 74.6% - **Team Rank:** 3rd - **L10 First Basket:** 4/10 (40.0%) - **DVP Matchup:** vs MIA (18th in PTS allowed to Cs) Victor Wembanyama deserves a look - 8 first baskets in 46 starts (17.4%) with a 19.6% first-shot rate. SAS wins the tip 74.6% of the time, which gives Victor more first-possession looks than most. Recent form: 4-for-10 on first baskets (40.0%), suggesting he's in rhythm early. ## Honorable Mentions - **Desmond Bane** (ORL) - 10.0% FB rate, 12.9% first shot, 70.0% tip win, L10: 4/10 - **Derrick Jones Jr.** (LAC) - 24.2% FB rate, 9.1% first shot, 45.1% tip win, L10: 5/10 - **Brandon Ingram** (TOR) - 19.4% FB rate, 13.4% first shot, 40.0% tip win, L10: 3/10 - **Jerami Grant** (POR) - 14.3% FB rate, 17.1% first shot, 52.8% tip win, L10: 2/10 Keep an eye on Desmond Bane (10.0% FB rate) - the overall factor balance kept him just outside, but the value could be there depending on the price. ## Related Guides - [First Basket Betting Guide](/blog/nba-first-basket-betting-guide) - [NBA DVP Matchups Explained](/blog/nba-dvp-matchups-explained) - [NBA Dashboard Quickstart](/blog/nba-dashboard-quickstart-for-beginners) ## Before You Lock Confirm lineups on the [First Basket dashboard](/nba/first-basket) - starters can change up to 2 hours before tip. Check sportsbook odds against each player's actual first basket rate to see where the line has value. For the complete breakdown of our scoring methodology, tipoff analysis, and bankroll strategy, see the [First Basket Betting Guide](/blog/nba-first-basket-betting-guide). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Live First Basket Dashboard](/nba/first-basket) - real-time data for all tonight's starters - [DVP Mismatches Tonight](/blog/nba-dvp-mismatches-mar-23-2026) - best defensive matchups - [Streak Plays Tonight](/nba/streaks) - players on hot streaks vs their lines - [First Basket Betting Guide](/blog/nba-first-basket-betting-guide) - full methodology *Picks update as lineups confirm. Bookmark [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io) for today's full slate.* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [NBA Props Hub](/blog/topic/nba-props) - Daily stream: [NBA First Basket Picks](/blog/stream/nba-first-basket-picks) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*