# Best NBA First Basket Bets Today - March 22, 2026

> First basket picks for March 22, 2026 - 5 games scored across 10 factors including tip-off advantage, first-shot usage, and opponent defense.

**Date:** 2026-03-22  
**Author:** HeatCheck HQ  
**Tags:** First Basket, NBA, Daily Picks, Player Props, Betting Strategy  
**Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/nba-first-basket-picks-mar-22-2026  
**Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io

---

**Today's best NBA first basket picks for Sunday, March 22, 2026** are Jamal Murray (Score: 80 — Jamal Murray posts a 80), Jerami Grant (Score: 72 — Jerami Grant posts a 71), Jalen Green (Score: 68 — Jalen Green posts a 67). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's 10-factor composite scoring model, updated daily.

# Best NBA First Basket Bets Today - March 22, 2026

Highest total tonight: 240.5. That kind of pace lifts every counting stat.

> [First Basket dashboard](/nba/first-basket) - live lineup confirmations before locks.

> **Yesterday's picks:** [NBA First Basket Picks - March 21](/blog/nba-first-basket-picks-mar-21-2026)

## Tonight's Slate

- POR @ DEN
- BKN @ SAC
- WSH @ NY
- MIN @ BOS
- TOR @ PHX

## Pick 1: Jamal Murray - POR @ DEN

- **First Basket Rate:** 18.5% (12 FB in 65 starts)
- **First Shot Rate:** 12.3%
- **Team Tipoff Win %:** 56.3%
- **Team Rank:** 1st
- **L10 First Basket:** 5/10 (50.0%)
- **DVP Matchup:** vs POR (13th in PTS allowed to Gs)

Jamal Murray checks every box tonight - 18.5% first basket rate, 12.3% first-shot rate, and 12 conversions across 65 starts. Tipoff edge: DEN wins the tip 56.3% of the time. More first possessions mean more chances for Jamal. In his last 10 games, Jamal has 5 first baskets - a 50.0% clip.

## Pick 2: Jerami Grant - POR @ DEN

- **First Basket Rate:** 14.3% (5 FB in 35 starts)
- **First Shot Rate:** 17.1%
- **Team Tipoff Win %:** 53.5%
- **Team Rank:** 3rd
- **L10 First Basket:** 2/10 (20.0%)
- **DVP Matchup:** vs DEN (5th in PTS allowed to Fs)

Jerami Grant ranks well across multiple factors - 14.3% FB rate with 17.1% first-shot usage. Recent stretch looks good: 2-for-10 in first baskets over his last window (20.0%). Add in DEN's 5th-ranked defense against Fs and the matchup tilts further in Jerami's favor.

> **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [First Basket dashboard](/nba/first-basket).

## Pick 3: Jalen Green - TOR @ PHO

- **First Basket Rate:** 11.8% (2 FB in 17 starts)
- **First Shot Rate:** 23.5%
- **Team Tipoff Win %:** 67.6%
- **Team Rank:** 7th
- **L10 First Basket:** 3/10 (30.0%)
- **DVP Matchup:** vs TOR (5th in PTS allowed to Gs)

Worth targeting: Jalen Green at 11.8% first basket rate. He's converted 2 times in 17 starts this season. It helps that PHO controls the opening tip at a 67.6% clip - that's more chances for Jalen to get the first shot up. In his last 10 games, Jalen has 3 first baskets - a 30.0% clip. TOR ranks 5th in points surrendered to Gs this season - favorable territory for Jalen.

## Honorable Mentions

- **Brandon Ingram** (TOR) - 19.7% FB rate, 13.6% first shot, 40.6% tip win, L10: 4/10
- **Jalen Brunson** (NYK) - 18.5% FB rate, 20.0% first shot, 52.1% tip win, L10: 1/10
- **DeMar DeRozan** (SAC) - 13.0% FB rate, 14.5% first shot, 50.7% tip win, L10: 3/10
- **Neemias Queta** (BOS) - 18.8% FB rate, 6.3% first shot, 38.6% tip win, L10: 2/10

Keep an eye on Brandon Ingram (19.7% FB rate) - TOR's tipoff rate (40.6%) limits first-possession opportunities, but the value could be there depending on the price.

## Before You Lock

Confirm lineups on the [First Basket dashboard](/nba/first-basket) - starters can change up to 2 hours before tip. Check sportsbook odds against each player's actual first basket rate to see where the line has value.

For the complete breakdown of our scoring methodology, tipoff analysis, and bankroll strategy, see the [First Basket Betting Guide](/blog/nba-first-basket-betting-guide).

**More from HeatCheck HQ:**
- [Live First Basket Dashboard](/nba/first-basket) - real-time data for all tonight's starters
- [DVP Mismatches Tonight](/blog/nba-dvp-mismatches-mar-22-2026) - best defensive matchups
- [Streak Plays Tonight](/nba/streaks) - players on hot streaks vs their lines
- [First Basket Betting Guide](/blog/nba-first-basket-betting-guide) - full methodology

*Picks update as lineups confirm. Bookmark [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io) for today's full slate.*

## Related Resources

- Parent hub: [NBA Props Hub](/blog/topic/nba-props)
- Daily stream: [NBA First Basket Picks](/blog/stream/nba-first-basket-picks)
- Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq)
- Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog)


---

*Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*