# Best NBA First Basket Bets Today - March 20, 2026

> Tonight's top first basket candidates across a 6-game NBA slate, ranked by 10-factor composite scoring - Jamal Murray leads the board. Updated daily.

**Date:** 2026-03-20  
**Author:** HeatCheck HQ  
**Tags:** First Basket, NBA, Daily Picks, Player Props, Betting Strategy  
**Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/nba-first-basket-picks-mar-20-2026  
**Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io

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**Today's best NBA first basket picks for Friday, March 20, 2026** are Jamal Murray (Score: 82 — Jamal Murray posts a 82), Brandon Ingram (Score: 70 — Brandon Ingram posts a 70), Alperen Sengun (Score: 65 — Alperen Sengun posts a 65). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's 10-factor composite scoring model, updated daily.

# Best NBA First Basket Bets Today - March 20, 2026

Jamal Murray has the best numbers on tonight's slate.

> [First Basket dashboard](/nba/first-basket) - live lineup confirmations before locks.

> **Yesterday's picks:** [NBA First Basket Picks - March 19](/blog/nba-first-basket-picks-mar-19-2026)

## Tonight's Slate

- NY @ BKN
- GS @ DET
- ATL @ HOU
- BOS @ MEM
- POR @ MIN
- TOR @ DEN

## Pick 1: Jamal Murray - TOR @ DEN

- **First Basket Rate:** 18.8% (12 FB in 64 starts)
- **First Shot Rate:** 12.5%
- **Team Tipoff Win %:** 55.7%
- **Team Rank:** 1st
- **L10 First Basket:** 5/10 (50.0%)
- **DVP Matchup:** vs TOR (8th in PTS allowed to Gs)

Jamal Murray tops the composite with 12 first baskets in 64 starts. His 12.5% first-shot rate means he's regularly the first option after tipoff. It helps that DEN controls the opening tip at a 55.7% clip - that's more chances for Jamal to get the first shot up. Over his last 10, Jamal has opened the scoring 5 times (50.0%). TOR ranks 8th in points surrendered to Gs this season - favorable territory for Jamal.

## Pick 2: Brandon Ingram - TOR @ DEN

- **First Basket Rate:** 20.0% (13 FB in 65 starts)
- **First Shot Rate:** 13.8%
- **Team Tipoff Win %:** 41.2%
- **Team Rank:** 1st
- **L10 First Basket:** 4/10 (40.0%)
- **DVP Matchup:** vs DEN (5th in PTS allowed to Fs)

Brandon Ingram deserves a look - 13 first baskets in 65 starts (20.0%) with a 13.8% first-shot rate. Recent form: 4-for-10 on first baskets (40.0%), suggesting he's in rhythm early. Add in DEN's 5th-ranked defense against Fs and the matchup tilts further in Brandon's favor.

> **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [First Basket dashboard](/nba/first-basket).

## Pick 3: Alperen Sengun - ATL @ HOU

- **First Basket Rate:** 20.7% (12 FB in 58 starts)
- **First Shot Rate:** 17.2%
- **Team Tipoff Win %:** 38.2%
- **Team Rank:** 1st
- **L10 First Basket:** 3/10 (30.0%)
- **DVP Matchup:** vs ATL (11th in PTS allowed to Cs)

Alperen Sengun is another strong look tonight. He's hit first basket in 12 of 58 starts (20.7%). In his last 10 games, Alperen has 3 first baskets - a 30.0% clip.

## Honorable Mentions

- **Jalen Brunson** (NYK) - 18.8% FB rate, 18.8% first shot, 52.9% tip win, L10: 1/10
- **Donovan Clingan** (POR) - 9.4% FB rate, 7.8% first shot, 54.3% tip win, L10: 2/10
- **CJ McCollum** (ATL) - 23.1% FB rate, 15.4% first shot, 50.7% tip win, L10: 3/10
- **Julius Randle** (MIN) - 13.0% FB rate, 18.8% first shot, 48.6% tip win, L10: 1/10

Jalen Brunson just missed the cut at 18.8% FB rate. Worth monitoring, but NYK's tipoff rate (52.9%) limits first-possession opportunities.

## Before You Lock

Confirm lineups on the [First Basket dashboard](/nba/first-basket) - starters can change up to 2 hours before tip. Check sportsbook odds against each player's actual first basket rate to see where the line has value.

For the complete breakdown of our scoring methodology, tipoff analysis, and bankroll strategy, see the [First Basket Betting Guide](/blog/nba-first-basket-betting-guide).

**More from HeatCheck HQ:**
- [Live First Basket Dashboard](/nba/first-basket) - real-time data for all tonight's starters
- [DVP Mismatches Tonight](/blog/nba-dvp-mismatches-mar-20-2026) - best defensive matchups
- [Streak Plays Tonight](/nba/streaks) - players on hot streaks vs their lines
- [First Basket Betting Guide](/blog/nba-first-basket-betting-guide) - full methodology

*Picks update as lineups confirm. Bookmark [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io) for today's full slate.*

## Related Resources

- Parent hub: [NBA Props Hub](/blog/topic/nba-props)
- Daily stream: [NBA First Basket Picks](/blog/stream/nba-first-basket-picks)
- Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq)
- Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog)


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*Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*