# Best NBA First Basket Bets Today - March 13, 2026

> Tonight's top first basket candidates across a 8-game NBA slate, ranked by 10-factor composite scoring - Anthony Edwards leads the board. Updated daily with mod

**Date:** 2026-03-13  
**Author:** HeatCheck HQ  
**Tags:** First Basket, NBA, Daily Picks, Player Props, Betting Strategy  
**Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/nba-first-basket-picks-mar-13-2026  
**Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io

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# Best NBA First Basket Bets Today - March 13, 2026

Start with Anthony Edwards - the data is clear.

> [First Basket dashboard](/nba/first-basket) - live lineup confirmations before locks.

> **Yesterday's picks:** [NBA First Basket Picks - March 12](/blog/nba-first-basket-picks-mar-12-2026)

## Tonight's Slate

- MEM @ DET
- NY @ IND
- PHX @ TOR
- CLE @ DAL
- NO @ HOU
- MIN @ GS
- UTAH @ POR
- CHI @ LAC

## Pick 1: Anthony Edwards - MIN @ GSW

- **First Basket Rate:** 27.3% (15 FB in 55 starts)
- **First Shot Rate:** 16.4%
- **Team Tipoff Win %:** 47.0%
- **Team Rank:** 1st
- **L10 First Basket:** 3/10 (30.0%)
- **DVP Matchup:** vs GSW (4th in PTS allowed to Gs)

Anthony Edwards sits atop tonight's board - 15 first baskets in 55 starts (27.3%), with a 16.4% first-shot rate that shows he's built into the opening play. Over his last 10, Anthony has opened the scoring 3 times (30.0%). Defensively, GSW gives up the 4th-most points to Gs this year.

## Pick 2: Alperen Sengun - NOR @ HOU

- **First Basket Rate:** 21.1% (12 FB in 57 starts)
- **First Shot Rate:** 17.5%
- **Team Tipoff Win %:** 38.5%
- **Team Rank:** 1st
- **L10 First Basket:** 4/10 (40.0%)
- **DVP Matchup:** vs NOR (9th in PTS allowed to Cs)

Alperen Sengun continues to post strong numbers - 12 first baskets across 57 starts gives him a 21.1% conversion rate. He's been active recently - 4 first baskets in his last 10 games (40.0%). Defensively, NOR gives up the 9th-most points to Cs this year.

## Pick 3: Derrick Jones Jr. - CHI @ LAC

- **First Basket Rate:** 22.2% (6 FB in 27 starts)
- **First Shot Rate:** 3.7%
- **Team Tipoff Win %:** 46.2%
- **Team Rank:** 1st
- **L10 First Basket:** 3/10 (30.0%)
- **DVP Matchup:** vs CHI (23rd in PTS allowed to Fs)

Worth targeting: Derrick Jones Jr. at 22.2% first basket rate. He's converted 6 times in 27 starts this season. He's been active recently - 3 first baskets in his last 10 games (30.0%).

## Honorable Mentions

- **Jalen Green** (PHO) - 15.4% FB rate, 30.8% first shot, 71.2% tip win, L10: 2/10
- **Brandon Ingram** (TOR) - 19.4% FB rate, 12.9% first shot, 40.0% tip win, L10: 4/10
- **Evan Mobley** (CLE) - 20.4% FB rate, 18.4% first shot, 63.6% tip win, L10: 1/10
- **Daniel Gafford** (DAL) - 16.2% FB rate, 10.8% first shot, 40.9% tip win, L10: 3/10

Keep an eye on Jalen Green (15.4% FB rate) - the overall factor balance kept him just outside, but the value could be there depending on the price.

## Before You Lock

Confirm lineups on the [First Basket dashboard](/nba/first-basket) - starters can change up to 2 hours before tip. Cross-reference [DVP rankings](/nba/defense-vs-position) and compare sportsbook odds against each player's actual first basket rate to find value.

For the complete breakdown of our scoring methodology, tipoff analysis, and bankroll strategy, see the [First Basket Betting Guide](/blog/nba-first-basket-betting-guide).

**More from HeatCheck HQ:**
- [Live First Basket Dashboard](/nba/first-basket) - real-time data for all tonight's starters
- [DVP Mismatches Tonight](/blog/nba-dvp-mismatches-mar-13-2026) - best defensive matchups
- [Streak Plays Tonight](/nba/streaks) - players on hot streaks vs their lines
- [First Basket Betting Guide](/blog/nba-first-basket-betting-guide) - full methodology

*Picks update as lineups confirm. Bookmark [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io) for today's full slate.*

## Related Resources

- Parent hub: [NBA Props Hub](/blog/topic/nba-props)
- Daily stream: [NBA First Basket Picks](/blog/stream/nba-first-basket-picks)
- Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq)
- Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog)


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