# The Heat Check: Tonight's Top NBA First Basket & First Team FG Picks (Feb 23) > Data-driven first basket and first team FG picks for tonight's 3-game NBA slate - SA at DET, SAC at MEM, UTH at HOU - powered by tipoff win rates, PBP data, and **Date:** 2026-02-23 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** NBA, First Basket, Daily Picks, First Team FG, Betting Strategy **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/nba-first-basket-picks-feb-23-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- # The Heat Check: Tonight's Top NBA First Basket & First Team FG Picks (Feb 23) A tight 3-game NBA slate means finding the edge in the opening minutes is more critical than ever. When attacking First Basket and First Team FG markets, the opening tip-win probability is everything. Combine that with who the offense runs through on that first scripted possession, and you have a recipe for profitable early-game action. Here is the breakdown of where the early math points for tonight's matchups, powered by the latest dashboards at [HeatCheckHQ.io](https://heatcheckhq.io). ## Tonight's Slate at a Glance Three games on the board tonight. **SA Spurs at DET Pistons** tips off at 7:00 PM ET at Little Caesars Arena (DET -1.5, O/U 231.5) — a tight spread in what should be a competitive, medium-pace game. **SAC Kings at MEM Grizzlies** follows at 8:00 PM ET from FedExForum (MEM -4.5, O/U 233.5), the highest total on the slate. The nightcap is **UTH Jazz at HOU Rockets** at 9:30 PM ET from Toyota Center (HOU -13.5, O/U 228.5) — the biggest mismatch of the evening by a wide margin. ## San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons **The Tip Matchup:** Victor Wembanyama vs. Jalen Duren **The Breakdown:** Wemby is practically an automatic tip-win, giving San Antonio the crucial first possession. The Spurs' 73.2% tipoff win rate is the highest on tonight's slate — and the best in the league. Even on the road, San Antonio has racked up 21 away tip wins this season. Detroit sits at just 41.8%, well below average. The Spurs love to establish Wembanyama early inside or get a clean look off an early screen. He takes the first shot 16.7% of the time — the highest on the team — though his conversion rate on those first shots is moderate at 9.5%. Meanwhile, Devin Vassell leads San Antonio with an 18.6% first basket rate and 14.0% PBP rate across the season. De'Aaron Fox is second at 14.9%. On the Detroit side, Jalen Duren leads with a 15.9% first basket rate despite a modest 6.8% first-shot rate — he gets his first baskets off putbacks, tips, and lobs rather than called plays. Worth noting: 6 of his 7 first baskets this season came on the road, so the home split is a cautionary flag tonight. **Top Target:** Victor Wembanyama. The odds will be short, but the math backs it up heavily with the jump ball advantage. For a First Team FG play, San Antonio gets the first crack at the rim more often than any other team tonight. ## Sacramento Kings @ Memphis Grizzlies **The Tip Matchup:** Maxime Raynaud vs. Taylor Hendricks / GG Jackson II **The Breakdown:** With massive lineup shakeups and injuries on both sides, this game is a prime target for value hunters. The tip advantage leans slightly toward Sacramento's size in the middle. Memphis holds a 52.7% tipoff rate at home (15 home tip wins), while Sacramento's road tipoff numbers are brutal — just 7 away tip wins all season. Offensively, DeMar DeRozan becomes the undisputed engine of this unit. He leads Sacramento with 5 first baskets on the year (8.8% rate) and a 10.5% first shot rate. In a depleted lineup, his usage on the opening possession goes through the roof. Keep an eye on De'Andre Hunter, who has scored the first basket in both games since joining Sacramento (2-for-2). His PBP rate across 58 total games is 12.1% — a solid number that the market may not have fully adjusted to yet. For Memphis, Ja Morant owns a stunning 20.0% first basket rate when active (4 first baskets in 20 games). Cedric Coward leads the team in first shots taken (8, 16.7% rate) and is tied for the team lead in first baskets (5). **Top Target:** DeMar DeRozan. Expect a quick mid-range isolation look on the first scripted possession. His usage with the current lineup makes him the clear first-look candidate. ## Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets **The Tip Matchup:** Kyle Filipowski vs. Alperen Sengun **The Breakdown:** Sengun has a massive experience and timing advantage here, meaning Houston should control the opening tap. The Rockets' early usage will run heavily through their frontcourt stars. But here's the data twist: Utah's overall 61.4% tipoff win rate dwarfs Houston's league-worst 36.4%. The Jazz's center rotation has been winning tips at an elite rate all season, and even on the road they've logged 16 away tip wins. The specific matchup tonight tilts Houston's way, but the overall numbers give Utah a fighting chance at first possession. Utah has three players at 14.0% or higher on the PBP first basket rate: Lauri Markkanen (14.0%, 20.0% BettingPros rate), Keyonte George (14.0%), and Jusuf Nurkic (12.3%). That concentration of first-basket volume is the highest of any team on tonight's slate. Markkanen is the standout — 20.0% per-game first basket rate (8 in 40 games) with the firepower to convert from anywhere on the opening look. Keyonte George takes the most first shots on Utah (9, 18.8% rate) and could be a sneaky value play at a longer price. On the Houston side, Alperen Sengun leads with 8 first baskets (17.0%) and 8 first shots, but he's been ice cold recently: 0-for-5 in his last 5 and 1-for-10 in his last 10 games for first baskets. Kevin Durant is also cold — 0-for-10 in his last 10 in this market. **Top Target:** Alperen Sengun for a Houston First Team FG — he's incredibly reliable when Houston controls the tap. If you want a Jazz hedge, Lauri Markkanen is still the undeniable first-look guy for Utah. ## Tonight's Top Value Play **DeMar DeRozan (Kings) to score first.** The tip advantage leans Sacramento, and his usage rate with the current lineup is massive. In a game with lineup volatility on both sides, the steady hand gets the first shot. ## Run Your Own Numbers Want to dig deeper into the data behind these picks? Check out the [First Basket](/nba/first-basket), [First Team FG](/nba/first-basket), and [Points in the First 3 Minutes](/nba/first-3min) dashboards at [HeatCheckHQ.io](https://heatcheckhq.io) to find your edge before tip-off. All data updates daily with full play-by-play integration. --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*