# NBA First Basket Picks Today (April 25, 2026) - Top Plays > Tonight's top first basket candidates across a 4-game NBA slate, ranked by 10-factor composite scoring - Jamal Murray leads the board. Updated daily. **Date:** 2026-04-25 **Author:** Jason Bowman **Tags:** First Basket, NBA, Daily Picks, Player Props, Betting Strategy **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/nba-first-basket-picks-apr-25-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best NBA first basket picks for Saturday, April 25, 2026** are Jamal Murray (Score: 65 — Jamal Murray posts a 65.4 composite score tonight), Jaden McDaniels (Score: 63 — Jaden McDaniels posts a 63.0 composite score tonight), Jalen Brunson (Score: 63 — Jalen Brunson posts a 62.9 composite score tonight). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's 10-factor composite scoring model, updated daily. # NBA First Basket Picks Today - April 25, 2026 Jamal Murray leads the board tonight. > [First Basket dashboard](/nba/first-basket) - live lineup confirmations before locks. > **Yesterday's picks:** [NBA First Basket Picks - April 24](/blog/nba-first-basket-picks-apr-24-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - DET @ ORL - OKC @ PHX - NY @ ATL - DEN @ MIN ## Pick 1: Jamal Murray — DEN @ MIN *19.5% FB rate · 13.0% first shot · 54.1% tip win · L10 2/10 (20.0%) · DvP 5th vs Gs* **Top first-basket play tonight.** MIN is the 5th-worst defense in the league against Gs (26.4 PPG to Gs). Jamal hits the floor with a built-in opening-possession advantage and a 19.5% season first-basket rate. Worth flagging: 1-of-5 on first baskets recently. Treat this as a regression-to-mean play, not a heater. ## Pick 2: Jaden McDaniels — DEN @ MIN *10.7% FB rate · 13.3% first shot · 52.9% tip win · L10 3/10 (30.0%) · DvP 9th vs Fs* Jaden McDaniels sits at 10.7% first-basket conversion across 75 starts (8 successful). The volume is real, the rate is real. DEN ranks 9th in points surrendered to Fs (24.0 PPG), which softens the opening-possession look. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [First Basket dashboard](/nba/first-basket). ## Pick 3: Jalen Brunson — NYK @ ATL *19.5% FB rate · 20.8% first shot · 51.8% tip win · L10 2/10 (20.0%) · DvP 14th vs Gs* 15 first baskets in 77 starts is a 19.5% rate — the kind of stable signal that rewards repetition. Worth flagging: 1-of-5 on first baskets recently. Treat this as a regression-to-mean play, not a heater. > **Heat Score check:** Convergence engine rates Jalen Brunson's Rebounds at **69 Heat Score** (under lean), cold trend tonight. ## Honorable Mentions - **Wendell Carter Jr.** (ORL) — ORL controls the tip 73.8% of the time. - **Jalen Green** (PHO) — PHO controls the tip 69.0% of the time. - **CJ McCollum** (ATL) — season FB rate of 21.4%. - **Cason Wallace** (OKC) — season FB rate of 15.8%. Wendell Carter Jr. was close - 15.9% first basket rate is legit, but the overall factor balance kept him just outside. ## Related Guides - [First Basket Betting Guide](/blog/nba-first-basket-betting-guide) - [NBA DVP Matchups Explained](/blog/nba-dvp-matchups-explained) - [NBA Dashboard Quickstart](/blog/nba-dashboard-quickstart-for-beginners) ## Before You Lock Confirm lineups on the [First Basket dashboard](/nba/first-basket) - starters can change up to 2 hours before tip. Check sportsbook odds against each player's actual first basket rate to see where the line has value. For the complete breakdown of our scoring methodology, tipoff analysis, and bankroll strategy, see the [First Basket Betting Guide](/blog/nba-first-basket-betting-guide). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Live First Basket Dashboard](/nba/first-basket) - real-time data for all tonight's starters - [DVP Mismatches Tonight](/blog/nba-dvp-mismatches-apr-25-2026) - best defensive matchups - [Streak Plays Tonight](/nba/streaks) - players on hot streaks vs their lines - [First Basket Betting Guide](/blog/nba-first-basket-betting-guide) - full methodology *Picks update as lineups confirm. Bookmark [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io) for today's full slate.* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [NBA Props Hub](/blog/topic/nba-props) - Daily stream: [NBA First Basket Picks](/blog/stream/nba-first-basket-picks) - Author: [Jason Bowman](/blog/author/jason-bowman) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*