# NBA First Basket Picks Today (April 23, 2026) - Top Plays

> First basket picks for April 23, 2026 - 3 games scored across 10 factors including tip-off advantage, first-shot usage, and opponent defense.

**Date:** 2026-04-23  
**Author:** Jason Bowman  
**Tags:** First Basket, NBA, Daily Picks, Player Props, Betting Strategy  
**Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/nba-first-basket-picks-apr-23-2026  
**Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io

---

**Today's best NBA first basket picks for Thursday, April 23, 2026** are Jarrett Allen (Score: 79 — Jarrett Allen posts a 79.4 composite score tonight), Jamal Murray (Score: 68 — Jamal Murray posts a 68.1 composite score tonight), Anthony Edwards (Score: 65 — Anthony Edwards posts a 65.1 composite score tonight). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's 10-factor composite scoring model, updated daily.

# NBA First Basket Picks Today - April 23, 2026

Jarrett Allen tops the board. Here's why.

> [First Basket dashboard](/nba/first-basket) - live lineup confirmations before locks.

> **Yesterday's picks:** [NBA First Basket Picks - April 22](/blog/nba-first-basket-picks-apr-22-2026)

## Tonight's Slate

- NY @ ATL
- CLE @ TOR
- DEN @ MIN

## Pick 1: Jarrett Allen — CLE @ TOR

*24.1% FB rate · 15.5% first shot · 65.5% tip win · L10 3/10 (30.0%) · DvP 25th vs Cs*

**Top first-basket play tonight.** 14 first baskets in 58 starts is a 24.1% rate — the kind of stable signal that rewards repetition.

## Pick 2: Jamal Murray — DEN @ MIN

*19.7% FB rate · 13.2% first shot · 54.8% tip win · L10 2/10 (20.0%) · DvP 5th vs Gs*

MIN is the 5th-worst defense in the league against Gs (26.5 PPG to Gs). Jamal hits the floor with a built-in opening-possession advantage and a 19.7% season first-basket rate.

Worth flagging: 1-of-5 on first baskets recently. Treat this as a regression-to-mean play, not a heater.

> **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [First Basket dashboard](/nba/first-basket).

## Pick 3: Anthony Edwards — DEN @ MIN

*24.6% FB rate · 14.8% first shot · 52.4% tip win · L10 N/A · DvP 24th vs Gs*

Home-court matters more for first-basket props than people think. Anthony converts 32.3% at home (vs 24.6% on the season), and tonight is in his building.

## Honorable Mentions

- **Mikal Bridges** (NYK) — ATL surrenders the 6th-most points to Fs.
- **CJ McCollum** (ATL) — season FB rate of 22.2%.
- **Brandon Ingram** (TOR) — season FB rate of 17.9%.

Mikal Bridges was close - 9.5% first basket rate is legit, but NYK's tipoff rate (51.2%) limits first-possession opportunities.

## Related Guides

- [First Basket Betting Guide](/blog/nba-first-basket-betting-guide)
- [NBA DVP Matchups Explained](/blog/nba-dvp-matchups-explained)
- [NBA Dashboard Quickstart](/blog/nba-dashboard-quickstart-for-beginners)

## Before You Lock

Confirm lineups on the [First Basket dashboard](/nba/first-basket) - starters can change up to 2 hours before tip. Check sportsbook odds against each player's actual first basket rate to see where the line has value.

For the complete breakdown of our scoring methodology, tipoff analysis, and bankroll strategy, see the [First Basket Betting Guide](/blog/nba-first-basket-betting-guide).

**More from HeatCheck HQ:**
- [Live First Basket Dashboard](/nba/first-basket) - real-time data for all tonight's starters
- [DVP Mismatches Tonight](/blog/nba-dvp-mismatches-apr-23-2026) - best defensive matchups
- [Streak Plays Tonight](/nba/streaks) - players on hot streaks vs their lines
- [First Basket Betting Guide](/blog/nba-first-basket-betting-guide) - full methodology

*Picks update as lineups confirm. Bookmark [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io) for today's full slate.*

## Related Resources

- Parent hub: [NBA Props Hub](/blog/topic/nba-props)
- Daily stream: [NBA First Basket Picks](/blog/stream/nba-first-basket-picks)
- Author: [Jason Bowman](/blog/author/jason-bowman)
- Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog)


---

*Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*