# NBA DVP Mismatches Today: October 26, 2026 (Every Game)

> Tonight's best NBA DVP mismatch for each of 9 games: the weakest defense at each position, matched to the player who fills that stat. Ty Jerome leads.

**Date:** 2026-10-26  
**Author:** HeatCheck HQ  
**Tags:** DVP, Defense vs Position, NBA, Player Props, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy  
**Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/nba-dvp-mismatches-oct-26-2026  
**Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io

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**Today's best NBA defense vs position mismatch picks for Monday, October 26, 2026** are Ty Jerome (Score: 64, the Jazz allow the most points to PGs, he averages 34.7), Jamal Murray (Score: 57, the Warriors allow the 2nd most points to PGs, he averages 24.0), Jonathan Kuminga (Score: 55, the Cavaliers allow the most points to SFs, he averages 12.0). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's eight factor DVP mismatch scoring model, updated daily.

# NBA DVP Mismatches Today: October 26, 2026

There are 9 NBA games tonight, and I went through each one for the softest defense vs position spot. A bad defensive rank only matters if the player on the other end actually fills that stat, so every lean below pairs the matchup with the player's own averages. The best of the night is Ty Jerome points against the Jazz. It is early in the season, so the defensive ranks are built on a handful of games and will move.

> [DVP Dashboard](/nba/defense-vs-position): full 30 team rankings at every position.

> **Yesterday's picks:** [NBA DVP Mismatches: October 25](/blog/nba-dvp-mismatches-oct-25-2026)

## Tonight's DVP Mismatches at a Glance

| Game | Tip (ET) | Player | Lean | Opp Rank Allowed | Player Avg |
|------|----------|--------|------|------------------|------------|
| WSH @ CHA | 7:00 PM | Brandon Miller (CHA SF) | points over | 2nd most | 19.3 |
| MIN @ CLE | 7:00 PM | Jonathan Kuminga (MIN SF) | points over | 1st most | 12.0 |
| CHI @ BOS | 7:30 PM | Paul George (BOS SG) | points over | 2nd most | 26.5 |
| DAL @ MIA | 7:30 PM | Kyrie Irving (DAL PG) | threes made over | 2nd most | 3.0 |
| IND @ MIL | 8:00 PM | Tyler Herro (MIL SG) | assists over | 1st most | 5.3 |
| PHX @ OKC | 8:00 PM | Alex Caruso (OKC SF) | threes made over | 2nd most | 1.7 |
| ATL @ HOU | 8:30 PM | Jabari Smith Jr. (HOU PF) | points over | 2nd most | 17.0 |
| MEM @ UTAH | 9:00 PM | Ty Jerome (MEM PG) | points over | 1st most | 34.7 |
| GS @ DEN | 10:00 PM | Jamal Murray (DEN PG) | points over | 2nd most | 24.0 |

Opp Rank Allowed is where the defense ranks in that stat allowed to the player's position (1st = most allowed).

## Wizards vs. Hornets DVP Mismatch

*7:00 PM ET · MNMT · Total 227.5*

Few defenses have been kinder to SFs: the Wizards allow 27.0 points a game, the 2nd most in the league. That lines up with what Brandon already does: 19.3 points a game on 21.3 shots.

On the other side, Naz Reid draws the Wizards, who allow the 2nd most rebounds to PFs. He averages 8.7 rebounds.

**Lean:** Brandon Miller (CHA) points over

**Also consider:** Naz Reid (CHA) rebounds over

## Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers DVP Mismatch

*7:00 PM ET · NBA League Pass · Total 232.5*

SFs have feasted on the Cavaliers, who allow 28.0 points a game at the position (the most). Jonathan Kuminga is averaging 12.0 points on 8.3 shots a night, so the volume is there to take advantage.

On the other side, LaMelo Ball draws the Cavaliers, who allow the 5th most points to PGs. He averages 16.0 points.

**Lean:** Jonathan Kuminga (MIN) points over

**Also consider:** LaMelo Ball (MIN) points over

## Bulls vs. Celtics DVP Mismatch

*7:30 PM ET · NBA League Pass · Total 233.5*

The Bulls are giving up 30.6 points a game to opposing SGs, the 2nd most in the league. Paul brings 26.5 points a game into it on 18.0 shots, which is the production that makes the matchup matter.

On the other side, Norman Powell draws the Celtics, who allow the 2nd most threes to SGs. He averages 2.3 threes.

**Lean:** Paul George (BOS) points over

**Also consider:** Norman Powell (CHI) threes made over

> **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Defense vs Position dashboard](/nba/defense-vs-position).

## Mavericks vs. Heat DVP Mismatch

*7:30 PM ET · NBA TV · Total 240.5*

The Heat are giving up 4.6 threes a game to opposing PGs, the 2nd most in the league. Kyrie brings 3.0 threes a game into it in 24.5 minutes, which is the production that makes the matchup matter.

On the other side, Davion Mitchell draws the Mavericks, who allow the 3rd most assists to PGs. He averages 8.7 assists.

**Lean:** Kyrie Irving (DAL) threes made over

**Also consider:** Davion Mitchell (MIA) assists over

## Pacers vs. Bucks DVP Mismatch

*8:00 PM ET · NBA League Pass · Total 238.5*

Few defenses have been kinder to SGs: the Pacers allow 7.6 assists a game, the most in the league. That lines up with what Tyler already does: 5.3 assists a game in 31.7 minutes.

On the other side, Tyrese Haliburton draws the Bucks, who allow the most assists to PGs. He averages 9.7 assists.

**Lean:** Tyler Herro (MIL) assists over

**Also consider:** Tyrese Haliburton (IND) assists over

## Suns vs. Thunder DVP Mismatch

*8:00 PM ET · NBA League Pass · Total 221.5*

Few defenses have been kinder to SFs: the Suns allow 4.5 threes a game, the 2nd most in the league. That lines up with what Alex already does: 1.7 threes a game in 22.3 minutes. There is a second angle too, the same defense ranks 4th worst in assists allowed to the position, so assists works as a backup play.

On the other side, Isaiah Hartenstein draws the Suns, who allow the most rebounds to Cs. He averages 7.0 rebounds.

**Lean:** Alex Caruso (OKC) threes made over

**Also consider:** Isaiah Hartenstein (OKC) rebounds over

## Hawks vs. Rockets DVP Mismatch

*8:30 PM ET · NBA League Pass · Total 229.5*

The Hawks are giving up 29.7 points a game to opposing PFs, the 2nd most in the league. Jabari brings 17.0 points a game into it on 11.3 shots, which is the production that makes the matchup matter.

On the other side, Jalen Johnson draws the Rockets, who allow the 2nd most assists to PFs. He averages 10.0 assists.

**Lean:** Jabari Smith Jr. (HOU) points over

**Also consider:** Jalen Johnson (ATL) assists over

## Grizzlies vs. Jazz DVP Mismatch

*9:00 PM ET · NBA League Pass · Total 237.5 · Top play of the night*

PGs have feasted on the Jazz, who allow 47.6 points a game at the position (the most). Ty Jerome is averaging 34.7 points on 21.3 shots a night, so the volume is there to take advantage. There is a second angle too, the same defense ranks 1st worst in threes allowed to the position, so threes made works as a backup play.

**Lean:** Ty Jerome (MEM) points over

## Warriors vs. Nuggets DVP Mismatch

*10:00 PM ET · NBCSN · Total 236.5*

PGs have feasted on the Warriors, who allow 37.5 points a game at the position (the 2nd most). Jamal Murray is averaging 24.0 points on 18.0 shots a night, so the volume is there to take advantage. There is a second angle too, the same defense ranks 2nd worst in rebounds allowed to the position, so rebounds works as a backup play.

On the other side, Yaxel Lendeborg draws the Nuggets, who allow the 4th most points to SFs. He averages 18.7 points.

**Lean:** Jamal Murray (DEN) points over

**Also consider:** Yaxel Lendeborg (GS) points over

## Related Guides

- [Defense vs Position Guide](/blog/nba-defense-vs-position-guide)
- [NBA DVP Matchups Explained](/blog/nba-dvp-matchups-explained)
- [NBA Back-to-Back Rest Analysis](/blog/nba-back-to-back-rest-analysis)

## Before You Lock

Check the [Defense vs Position dashboard](/nba/defense-vs-position) for full 1 to 30 rankings at every position and stat. Confirm lineups before tip: if a starter sits, the backup will not move the needle the same way, and a rotation change can flip which player draws the soft matchup.

For full team-level defensive rankings and how to use DVP data in your process, see the [DVP Betting Guide](/blog/nba-defense-vs-position-guide).

**More from HeatCheck HQ:**
- [First Basket Picks Tonight](/blog/nba-first-basket-picks-oct-26-2026): tipoff scoring leaders
- [Live DVP Dashboard](/nba/defense-vs-position): full 30 team rankings
- [Streak Plays](/nba/streaks): players clearing their lines consistently
- [DVP Betting Guide](/blog/nba-defense-vs-position-guide): how to use matchup data

*Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).*

## Related Resources

- Parent hub: [NBA Props Hub](/blog/topic/nba-props)
- Daily stream: [NBA DVP Mismatches](/blog/stream/nba-dvp-mismatches)
- Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq)
- Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog)


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*Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*