Today's best MLB strikeout prop picks for Friday, September 25, 2026 are Gavin Williams (Score: 81, 12.13 K/9, 33.2% whiff rate), Jacob deGrom (Score: 76, 11.15 K/9, 33.6% whiff rate), Tarik Skubal (Score: 73, 10.48 K/9, 31.1% whiff rate). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's six factor pitcher K scoring model, updated daily.
MLB Strikeout Props Today: September 25, 2026
17 game slate, 31 probable starters. These pitchers have the K rate and matchup to pile up strikeouts.
Pitching Stats Dashboard: full pitcher arsenals and K metrics for every starter.
Yesterday's K picks: MLB Strikeout Picks: September 24
Today's Slate
- CHC at BOS (Clay Holmes vs Alec Gamboa), 1:05 PM ET
- CHC at BOS (David Peterson vs Brayan Bello), 5:35 PM ET
- BAL at NYY (Trevor Rogers vs Brendan Beck), 4:05 PM ET
- BAL at NYY (Brandon Young vs TBD), 4:10 PM ET
- PIT at DET (Bubba Chandler vs Jackson Jobe), 6:40 PM ET
- TB at PHI (Freddy Peralta vs Cristopher Sánchez), 6:40 PM ET
- NYM at WSH (TBD vs Andrew Alvarez), 6:45 PM ET
- CIN at TOR (Nick Lodolo vs José Soriano), 7:07 PM ET
- ATL at MIA (Ray Kerr vs Eury Pérez), 7:10 PM ET
- CLE at KC (Gavin Williams vs Noah Cameron), 7:40 PM ET
- COL at CWS (Tomoyuki Sugano vs Sean Burke), 7:40 PM ET
- STL at MIL (Michael McGreevy vs Robert Gasser), 7:40 PM ET
- TEX at MIN (Jacob deGrom vs Joe Ryan), 8:10 PM ET
- HOU at ATH (Hunter Brown vs Jacob Lopez), 9:40 PM ET
- AZ at SD (Brandon Pfaadt vs TBD), 9:40 PM ET
- LAA at SEA (Reid Detmers vs Bryce Miller), 10:10 PM ET
- LAD at SF (Tarik Skubal vs Yunior Marte), 10:15 PM ET
Pick 1: Gavin Williams, CLE vs KC
RHP | 244 K on season | Kauffman Stadium
244 K · 12.13 K/9 · 33.2% whiff · 3.63 ERA · 1.08 WHIP · 22.0% opp K rate
Top K play tonight. Gavin Williams's 12.13 K/9 puts him in elite strikeout territory, the kind of arm that punches out a batter every nine pitches he's in the game. Tonight against KC he keeps adding to the season total.
The 33.2% whiff rate underneath confirms the stuff is real, not BABIP fueled. The sweeper (44.9% whiff) is the put away offering when he needs it. Gavin Williams is my strikeout lean tonight.
Dig deeper into pitcher arsenals on the Pitching Stats dashboard: see pitch mix, whiff rates, and velocity for every starter.
Pick 2: Jacob deGrom, TEX vs MIN
RHP | 196 K on season | Target Field
196 K · 11.15 K/9 · 33.6% whiff · 3.86 ERA · 1.10 WHIP · 22.0% opp K rate
11.15 K/9 is among the best in the game. Jacob deGrom faces MIN tonight, and if the strike zone cooperates, the K total piles up fast.
The 33.6% whiff rate underneath confirms the stuff is real, not BABIP fueled. The changeup (46.5% whiff) is the put away offering when he needs it. Lock Jacob deGrom for the strikeout over.
Pick 3: Tarik Skubal, LAD vs SF
LHP | 176 K on season | Oracle Park
176 K · 10.48 K/9 · 31.1% whiff · 2.85 ERA · 0.99 WHIP · 22.0% opp K rate
When swings result in whiffs at this rate (31.1%), Ks follow. Tarik Skubal brings exactly that profile against SF.
The changeup (46.8% whiff) is the put away offering when he needs it. The 10.48 K/9 is the season long anchor. Tarik Skubal is the K play I trust most in this spot.
Honorable Mentions
- Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) vs TB: 9.95 K/9, 31.3% whiff, 2.93 ERA, 221 K
- Reid Detmers (LAA) vs SEA: 10.26 K/9, 28.9% whiff, 3.47 ERA, 204 K
- Hunter Brown (HOU) vs ATH: 10.59 K/9, 27.2% whiff, 3.26 ERA, 120 K
Related Guides
Before You Lock
Check the Pitching Stats dashboard for full arsenal breakdowns and the Hitting Stats page for pitch mix analysis showing which lineups are most vulnerable to certain pitch types. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting, because a bullpen game changes everything. K/9 and whiff rate together are the strongest predictors of strikeout volume.
Our strikeout model scores probable starters across 6 factors: K/9, whiff rate, opposing team K tendency, pitcher quality, workload pace, and venue. Full pitcher profiles on the Pitching Stats dashboard.
More from HeatCheck HQ:
- Pitching Stats Dashboard: pitcher arsenals, K rates, and advanced metrics
- Hitting Stats Dashboard: batter K vulnerability and pitch mix analysis
- Dinger Picks Today: Statcast driven home run picks
- NRFI Picks Today: no run first inning best bets
Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at heatcheckhq.io.
Related Resources
- Parent hub: MLB Props Hub
- Daily stream: MLB Strikeout Picks
- Author: HeatCheck HQ
- Browse all posts: Sports Betting Insights & Guides